Away with work all week so still not trading Live, hence limited analysis this week. Gbp looks best short of the week.
Lt Sweet Crude Oct Fut – Long only on pullbacks – Boss doji so expect test of the BO level
Nat Gas – Boss shooting star between levels. Boss in Barbwire. Neutral but pull ISA ETC if the $4.414 level goes.
Gold – Boss IB – expect a test of the 1033 level. Long only.
DowJones Sep Fut -(YMZ9) – Boss Doji on the big weekly downtrend. Key test here but long only on current trends unless this major DSRI level goes.
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– 2nd Boss Doji on the major downtrend line. Worker shows a shooting star on Fri. Wait for PA but still long only until the trend changes.
Cable – Boss S/Star and worker BEEB – Short only on pullbacks.
Gbpyen. - Boss doji/S/Star (loose) but worker BEOB. Short only on pullbacks.
Gbpchf – As above – boss IB and worker BEOB – short on pullbacks.
Eurusd – Up TL still in force – Long only on pullbacks.
Audusd – 0.9315 level trapping upward move but it's still long only until the trend changes.
Usdchf – Boss still down, but worker could be changing after inverted hammer and a bull trend bar. Neutral until will get some HL's for new uptrend.
Usdcad – PA under the down TL but worker hammer has produced a bull Trend bar. Wait for a HL before long on pullbacks.
USDYEN – Long only above 92.60 (last high of previous down trend)
Euryen – Triple top poss forming on boss at 138.00 level. PA still under monthly 20ema – long only above that level on bull PA and test.
Eurgbp – Boss hammer off the most recent up TL. Worker BUOB on Fri. Long only. Parity here we come!
Eurnzd – Short only. Down trend still in force.
Gbpcad – Major downtrend still intact so short only on bear PA.
Nzdusd – Major up TL still intact – long only on pullbacks.
Audyen – Long only – Dr Joe – still keeps going up.
EurCad – Poss double bottom in – long only once the old Rest level at 1.6095 is broken.
GbpAud – Still short only on pullbacks. Respecting the worker 20ema
CadJpy – Boss hanging man and I think short only after a major TL break and a HH. PA on the down TL so siding with short only.
25 Oct 2009
19 Oct 2009
17 Oct 2009
Weekly Analysis 17 Oct 09
Lt Sweet Crude Oct Fut – Strong bullish break out of recent consolidation area. PA now above the Mas. Long only on Pullbacks. Expect pullback to 75 level (monthly 50sma) or 72 BO level.
Nat Gas – Boss chart shows a hammer after last weeks bear doji. Barbwire but always side with the most recent candle and expect the uptrend to continue. Long above the $4.08 SR level.
Gold – Big boss bullish, boss still bullish with large trend candle breaking last old high of 1033. Last week gave us a weak shooting star but I would not short at this level as there has not been a significant TL break first. Wait for retrace into the 1033 level and see how PA reacts there but side with LONG only unless that $1000 level is again violated.
DowJones Sep Fut -(YMZ9) – Major Up TL still intact although we have had a smaller TL break. Boss gives us a small bull candle off the up TL but we are back at the monthly DOWN TL from the highs. Last low of this UP TL has not been broken and with Crispen Odey (Hedge fund chairman) saying buy all QE shares until QE stops, it's a still LONG ONLY chart buying pullbacks to the 20 ema.
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Worker TL break after a double top and we have broken the worker 20ema. Worker shows a BEOB on Fri's close but the major UP trend is still intact. It's a LONG only on pullbacks unless the get a LH under the key 5100 level.
Cable – Major boss down trend is still in force (weak) but the stong bull trend off the lows is still in play. However, the minor downtrend from the S Star highs is still intact even after the large BUOB last week. I'd like to see the minor downtrend line broken and tested for longs or rejected for shorts. PA is still under the major down TL so early part of the week will reveal all IMO. Worker 20 and 50 are both pointing down still so Neutral on this until the direction becomes clear.
Gbpyen. - Up TL broken some twice weeks back. Boss chart still bearish after 2 pushes down after a double top. PA last week rallied strongly from the BarWire and broke the down trend line and 20ema. Currently in the 20/50 trap but I would expect a test of the steep broken TL and poss 144.00 ish level (high of the Barbwire). Still under the Boss Mas, so, Neutral until there is a BO test but still favour short over the next few days to test the BO.
Gbpchf – Boss chart shows major downtrend still intact but the recent down move has given us 2 pushes down. BUOB last week off the 1.6492 SR zone but after such a big move down I'd be reticent to go long. We could have a HL from the last low in Dec and if PA rallied off here that could be seen as bullish. PA has not broken out from the SR level of the last high of the downtrend so I'd like to see a worker test and HL AND break above 1.6730 before going long. Neutral.
Eurusd – Broken out of triangle and is above 61% fib. Bull candle last week. Tested wedge BO though and up TL still intact but last week did not break old highs. Worker gives us a BO test so this pair is LONG only on pullbacks.
Audusd – This pair has rallied so strongly from the lows it defies gravity! Boss still bullish as is the worker. Above the 76% retrace so far too bid for me to get in at this level but, it keeps going up and until the UP TL is broken then one should LONG every pullback PA opportunity.
Usdchf – Boss shows us a BEOB but PA is extended far from the 20ema so it's short only but wait for a elastic pullback to the 20ema first.
Usdcad – Boss still bearish with no trend line breaks long. Only take PASR long after a TL break. Boss shows a weak hammer but with no previous TL breaks I'm not interested. Still short on pullbacks.
USDYEN – 2nd bounce of the TL created as double bottom on the monthly charts. Down TL still not broken so I would stick with short only unless the 92.00 level is broken and tested.
Euryen – Minor up trend still intact after the hammer test of the TL from the March lows. Boss shows bullish candles so its Dr Joe. Keep buying on the way up but I'd like to see PA breach 137 and Monthly 20ema confluence before going long.
Eurgbp – PA not broken the last high of the most recent Boss downtrend from the highs. Boss last week shows a BEOB but the minor UP TL is still intact. Wait for a TL break and test on good PASR but after 3rd Boss lower high side with short after minor up TL break. Worker S Star a few days ago worked as planned and hit initial target exactly!
Eurnzd – No reason to do anything here other than short. Wait for significant TL break before considering any longs from last weeks IB. Short only but risky so sit this one out.
Gbpcad – Boss shows PA retrace back to 20ema. Look for a worker PA setup to continue with SHORT only.
Nzdusd – Long only. All charts still bullish. Only short below .7246 last low of uptrend level.
Audyen – Boss still bullish but now in the 20/50 Boss ema trap. Worker gives us a S Star on Friday's close and momentum has been weakening of late. Wait for S Star to activate and PA produce a LH below the SR level at 81.80 before going short or continue with long should that level be tested and produce a bullish PA to stick with trend.
EurCad – Difficult chart to assess. Had 2 TL breaks to the downside and PA is under the last one. Wait for PASR from this underside position and continue with recent minor down trend.
GbpAud – Still short all the way. No reason to counter trend this at all. Short all pullbacks to the 20ema.
CadJpy – Long only above the Monthly 20ema at 88.80
Nat Gas – Boss chart shows a hammer after last weeks bear doji. Barbwire but always side with the most recent candle and expect the uptrend to continue. Long above the $4.08 SR level.
Gold – Big boss bullish, boss still bullish with large trend candle breaking last old high of 1033. Last week gave us a weak shooting star but I would not short at this level as there has not been a significant TL break first. Wait for retrace into the 1033 level and see how PA reacts there but side with LONG only unless that $1000 level is again violated.
DowJones Sep Fut -(YMZ9) – Major Up TL still intact although we have had a smaller TL break. Boss gives us a small bull candle off the up TL but we are back at the monthly DOWN TL from the highs. Last low of this UP TL has not been broken and with Crispen Odey (Hedge fund chairman) saying buy all QE shares until QE stops, it's a still LONG ONLY chart buying pullbacks to the 20 ema.
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Worker TL break after a double top and we have broken the worker 20ema. Worker shows a BEOB on Fri's close but the major UP trend is still intact. It's a LONG only on pullbacks unless the get a LH under the key 5100 level.
Cable – Major boss down trend is still in force (weak) but the stong bull trend off the lows is still in play. However, the minor downtrend from the S Star highs is still intact even after the large BUOB last week. I'd like to see the minor downtrend line broken and tested for longs or rejected for shorts. PA is still under the major down TL so early part of the week will reveal all IMO. Worker 20 and 50 are both pointing down still so Neutral on this until the direction becomes clear.
Gbpyen. - Up TL broken some twice weeks back. Boss chart still bearish after 2 pushes down after a double top. PA last week rallied strongly from the BarWire and broke the down trend line and 20ema. Currently in the 20/50 trap but I would expect a test of the steep broken TL and poss 144.00 ish level (high of the Barbwire). Still under the Boss Mas, so, Neutral until there is a BO test but still favour short over the next few days to test the BO.
Gbpchf – Boss chart shows major downtrend still intact but the recent down move has given us 2 pushes down. BUOB last week off the 1.6492 SR zone but after such a big move down I'd be reticent to go long. We could have a HL from the last low in Dec and if PA rallied off here that could be seen as bullish. PA has not broken out from the SR level of the last high of the downtrend so I'd like to see a worker test and HL AND break above 1.6730 before going long. Neutral.
Eurusd – Broken out of triangle and is above 61% fib. Bull candle last week. Tested wedge BO though and up TL still intact but last week did not break old highs. Worker gives us a BO test so this pair is LONG only on pullbacks.
Audusd – This pair has rallied so strongly from the lows it defies gravity! Boss still bullish as is the worker. Above the 76% retrace so far too bid for me to get in at this level but, it keeps going up and until the UP TL is broken then one should LONG every pullback PA opportunity.
Usdchf – Boss shows us a BEOB but PA is extended far from the 20ema so it's short only but wait for a elastic pullback to the 20ema first.
Usdcad – Boss still bearish with no trend line breaks long. Only take PASR long after a TL break. Boss shows a weak hammer but with no previous TL breaks I'm not interested. Still short on pullbacks.
USDYEN – 2nd bounce of the TL created as double bottom on the monthly charts. Down TL still not broken so I would stick with short only unless the 92.00 level is broken and tested.
Euryen – Minor up trend still intact after the hammer test of the TL from the March lows. Boss shows bullish candles so its Dr Joe. Keep buying on the way up but I'd like to see PA breach 137 and Monthly 20ema confluence before going long.
Eurgbp – PA not broken the last high of the most recent Boss downtrend from the highs. Boss last week shows a BEOB but the minor UP TL is still intact. Wait for a TL break and test on good PASR but after 3rd Boss lower high side with short after minor up TL break. Worker S Star a few days ago worked as planned and hit initial target exactly!
Eurnzd – No reason to do anything here other than short. Wait for significant TL break before considering any longs from last weeks IB. Short only but risky so sit this one out.
Gbpcad – Boss shows PA retrace back to 20ema. Look for a worker PA setup to continue with SHORT only.
Nzdusd – Long only. All charts still bullish. Only short below .7246 last low of uptrend level.
Audyen – Boss still bullish but now in the 20/50 Boss ema trap. Worker gives us a S Star on Friday's close and momentum has been weakening of late. Wait for S Star to activate and PA produce a LH below the SR level at 81.80 before going short or continue with long should that level be tested and produce a bullish PA to stick with trend.
EurCad – Difficult chart to assess. Had 2 TL breaks to the downside and PA is under the last one. Wait for PASR from this underside position and continue with recent minor down trend.
GbpAud – Still short all the way. No reason to counter trend this at all. Short all pullbacks to the 20ema.
CadJpy – Long only above the Monthly 20ema at 88.80
13 Oct 2009
11 Oct 2009
Weekly Analysis 11 Oct 09
Lt Sweet Crude Nov Fut – Boss chart now still in minor uptrend from lows. PA has broken thru the monthly 20ema but is still under the 50sma. Still just under the 50% retrace from high to low and skirting the key 72.00 level. Trapped under minor down TL from high at 74.90 but after a major TL break i'd prefer this short below 65.00 or long above the monthly 50sma at 75.00. Neutral.
Nat Gas – Big boss chart shows large BUOB. Boss shows a hanging man 2 weeks ago and a shooting star this week. Bearish but UP TL has held so far. Expect a test of 4.65 (last high of downtrend on worker) so still LONG only but only as long as that BO level holds.
Gold – Big boss bullish, boss still bullish with large trend candle breaking last old high of 1033. Still in major uptrend so LONG only on pullbacks.
DowJones Sep Fut -(YMZ9) – Major Up TL still intact although we have had a smaller TL break. Boss gives us a large bull candle off the up TL but we are back at the monthly DOWN TL from the highs. Last low of this UP TL has not been broken and with Crispen Odey (Hedge fund chairman) saying buy all QE shares until QE stops, it's a LONG ONLY chart buying pullbacks to the 20 ema.
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Worker TL break after a double top and we have broken the woker 20ema. Boss bullish still so long only on pullbacks.
Cable – Boss chart is bearish after the S Star a few weeks back and the M2S (Lower high short near the ema). This week an IB inside last weeks doji/spinning top. PA rejected break of minor down TL. Worker shows a large BEEB. Short only below 1.5760 SR.
Gbpyen. - Up TL broken some weeks back. Boss chart still bearish after 2 pushes down after a double top. Last 2 weeks gives doji/hammer looking bar right off the BO test of the last high of the downtrend. Also at 50% fib retrace from extreme low to high and 61% from top of first wave to top. Worker is in a mess with dojis everywhere. Stand aside but look for opportunities on worker in week. Favour short to SR level at 131.00
Gbpchf – Major up TL's broken. Boss chart still bearish but we have had 2 pushes down resulting in a spinning top at SR level. Boss shows an IB last week right at key 1.6490 SR but worker Hammer from 28 Sept still in play. Neutral.
Eurusd – Broken out of triangle and is above 61% fib. Bull candle last week. Tested wedge BO though and up TL still intact but last week did not break old highs. Worker shows a double top right at the level of the big downtrend spike high from last year. Wait for up TL to be broken and tested for short or double top to be broken for long with trend.
Audusd – Major up TL is still intact on boss with bullish PA after interest rise last week. Could be a large trend-channel over shoot that plays out over 2 weeks? Price looks way to bid-up for me to enter but we are above the 75% retrace too and all MA's. No longs here for me, wait for new trend to establish short before entering.
Usdchf – Boss has broken thru major levels and up TL's . Boss gives us a BUEB right back at the 76% retrace! Deep one that. Boss shows a weak hammer but no protrusion into new lows. Worker IB on Fri but still below the 20ema. No trade here for me but favour LONG should the 20ema break and get tested.
Usdcad – Boss shows a huge bear candle. Smashing thru SR levels and last Up TL. Short only on retraces with short PA.
USDYEN – Major down TL's have been broken and trend is very bearish. 2nd Boss Hammer at the base of this bear channel. Had 2 pushes down (just) and hammer gives us a HL from the low back in Jan 09. Worker gives huge BUEB. ATM long to next SR at 91 at least but only once we have a worker HL.
Euryen – Major UP TL has been broken and tested from underneath. Boss gives us a BUEB after last week's hammer. Worker back above the minor SR level created by the break of the last low of recent down trend channel. Boss still in up trend so long only on bullish PASR unless base of hammer is broken.
Eurgbp – Major UP Trend is still intact with minor DOWN TL now broken and poss tested. Boss gives us a bull bar. Worker gives text-book shooting star about 2 weeks ago that is still the controlling candle. Risky counter-trend short back to 0.9020 level. Sit this out.
Eurnzd – Boss down trend still intact and now we have the MAJOR up TL broken. Boss bear candle. - Poss test now of the broken TL from underneath so wait for PA retrace. PA below the monthly 50sma. No trade here against such a strong trend down.
Gbpcad – Messy. Last week gave huge bear candle. Still in a down Trend. Major up TL's have been broken. Wait for test of broken TL. No trade here.
Nzdusd – Boss is still in major UP trend. PA at the 77% retrace at 0.7386 and worker shows a BEEB. Major UP TL's still intact. Would like to see last high of the uptrend broken and tested (0.7305) for short but until then, too bid for me so no trade here.
Audyen – Boss gives us a huge BUEB but we have not broken thru old highs. PA above big boss 20ema and back above up TL. Not as bid as audusd so long only on pullbacks or break of the last high at 82.10 (with 50% fib confluence)
EurCad – Had one major UP TL break but the second one is holding so far after the hammer a few weeks back. 2 weeks ago Boss gave us a BEOB. All Mas are flat but worker gives a S Star. Last low of Up Trend still not broken so wait for test of that SR for LONG.
GbpAud – Boss chart in a major downtrend and lowest on my chart data. Short only on pullbacks to down TL and worker 20ema.
CadJpy – Boss up TL still intact (just) after two tests. Worker shows 2 hammers much as the other yen pairs right off the Up TL and SR at 81.91. Long with major up trend but counter the immediate down trend after a huge double top. With Up TL still intact LONG only until PA dictates otherwise.
6 Oct 2009
Swing High/Low
For a CONFIRMED swing high, the high must be higher than the preceding bar and there must be a LOW lower than the low of the swing high.
For a Swing Low the low must be lower than the previous candle and there must be a HIGH, higher than the high of the swing low
Simples
Trade the charts - not the News - Strat
Quote:
Originally Posted by chanak  Have to watch this with Shares though as there are sometimes 'lenders' in the market. Some big MMs and Brokers will have a pool of shares waiting to be traded. These shares can be 'lent' to CFD traders or sold to buyers. Are these 'dormant' shares already purchased by the broker or 'lent' on condition of sale by the company issuing the shares? In Forex I would imagine that this wouldn't be the case as it's a Zero-Sum game - two sides to the transaction? Grimweasel... Do we really need to know 'why' a bull bar has appeared on a chart... |
Danny boy, your handle should have been “Day Tripper” as your mind seems to wander in and out of focus more times than our first 1953 black and white telly!
As technical traders, we trade our charts using technical analysis of PRICE. Nothing else.
We watch and study PRICE, nothing else, whether it be on a price bar or a candle. There is also a very important time element but because our MT4 charts are “automatic” and logarithmic in scale, we cannot perform time element analysis and studies. In any event, we have enough on our plate trying to follow PRICE!
We do not care or need to know why PRICE did what it did from a funny mentals perspective.
We DO need to know WHO is in CONTROL of that price bar. We DO need to know the MARKET SENTIMENT at all times. We do not need to know the funny mentals of why?
This is ALL we need to know as technical traders.
Let’s do a quick example on USDJPY:
At this point in time, Tuesday, October 06, 2009 at 12:30pm NY time:
Market sentiment is BEARISH
Sellers are still IN CONTROL
Worker and BOSS trend is DOWN
We do not care what caused this to happen or why?
If we did, how would this help us as technical traders?
The danger of “knowing” this or “listening to the talking heads” is that on your sub conscious level, your thinking, and therefore trading direction, has already been “programmed” into you.
Always keep an OPEN mind
Do NOT marry your trades – be ready to DUMP her as soon as she gets “grumpy”
5 Oct 2009
gbpjpy Sun night spreads
Not the strongest jpy cross to long really but on Sun night this pair was higher than the rest and my broker gave wider spreads on the 'exotics' of cadyen and nzdyen. It seems the spreads are very wide on Sun evenings for some reason? Must be lack of liquidity? One to remember for the future. Patience would have been better here too - wait for a SR level to be penetrated and tested with a HL rather than rushing in on the activation of the hammer. In the back of my mind I said to myself that 'I bet this finishes as BarbWire today when Europe pushes it up and the US fades that move in the afternoon!' Hey presto - maybe listen to gut instinct once in a while??!!
4 Oct 2009
Weekly Analysis 4 Oct 09
Lt Sweet Crude Oct Fut – Boss chart now bearish. Major Up TL has been broken and tested from underneath after a double top. Last weeks BEEB still in play and this week we have a bullish IB. PA still under big boss 20ema but this is flat. PA closed above Boss 20ema. Wait for break of boss IB before entry. Short target of 59.88, long target of 72.00. Neutral.
Nat Gas – Big boss chart shows large BUOB. Lot of move could be short covering. Boss chart now bullish after major down TL break. Boss hanging-man candle did not break highs of previous week but did test the BO from the last high of the up trend. Long only
Gold – Big boss bullish, boss still bullish with weekly IB at key $1000 level. As with oil wait for break of the IB but favour long. Upside tgt of 1033, short target of 970 (wedge BO top line). Neutral.
DowJones Sep Fut -(YMZ9) – Major Up TL still intact although we have had a smaller TL break. Last low of the UP TL has not been broken and with Crispen Odey (Hedge fund chairman) saying buy all QE shares until QE stops, it's a LONG ONLY chart buying pullbacks to the 20 ema.
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Worker TL break after a double top and we have broken the woker 20ema. Worker gives hammer looking candle. Boss chart still above major up TL and both Mas. No lower-highs yet so buy all pullbacks. Long only
Cable – Boss chart is bearish after the S Star a few weeks back and the M2S (Lower high short near the ema). This week gives a doji/spinning top. Shows indecision. PA retraced back to 50% fib from last swing low-high. Worker chart in BarbWire with conflicting dojis. Wait for next lower high near down TL or ema before short again. Short bias.
Gbpyen. - Up TL broken some weeks back. Boss chart still bearish after 2 pushes down after a double top. Last week gives doji/hammer looking bar right off the BO test of the last high of the downtrend. Also at 50% fib retrace from extreme low to high and 61% from top of first wave to top. Worker chart gives us two hammer last week with a higher low. PA below all Mas so really an ATM trade to major SR at 148.95. Long for ATM to next SR level only.
Gbpchf – Major up TL's broken. Boss chart still bearish but we have had 2 pushes down resulting in a spinning top at SR level. Worker gives Barbwire where we have conflicting Hammer/shooting star. Gbpyen could drive this up but over all NEUTRAL.
Eurusd – Broken out of triangle BUT has rejected 61% fib. Bear candle last week still under 61% fib. Tested wedge BO though and up TL still intact. 3 minor pushes down on the worker chart ending in a spinning top. ATM trade at least to test the 1.47 level. Long only unless PA trades back into wedge then we could have a failed wedge-BO trade.
Audusd – Major up TL is still intact on boss with bullish PA. Boss gives a long wicked BEEB and BEOB. Worker shows us a BEEB 2 days ago and Fri closed with a hammer looking candle but does show an expanding triangle at the top, so not really a bull-flag. Would like to see a double top as the bulls have one last chance of continuing, so Neutral with a bear bias. Too risky for longs here after such a long retrace back to old highs.
Usdchf – Boss has broken thru major levels and up TL's . Boss gives us a BUEB right back at the 76% retrace! Deep one that. Worker has a small up trend but Fri gave us a BEEB. So, no trade here until down TL broken.
Usdcad – Bearish PA BUT we have had a LOWER LOW after a down TL break; Boss shows an IB (bearish) and these usually trade in the direction of the IB. Worker gives us a with trend shooting star but PA is in the 20/50 trap. Leaning toward long but wait for resolution of BARB WIRE at this big 1.0781 level.
USDYEN – Major down TL's have been broken and PA is very bearish. Boss Hammer at the base of this bear channel. Had 2 pushes down (just) and hammer gives us a HL from the low back in Jan 09. Worker the same as Gbpyen. 2 bullish hammers. ATM long to next SR at 91 at least.
Euryen – Major UP TL has been broken and tested from underneath. Last boss candle was a hammer but last week gave a loose IB that has been broken to the upside. Still long only as with other yen pairs. Need to find strongest yen pair to trade.
Eurgbp – Major UP Trend is still intact with minor DOWN TL now broken and poss tested. Boss gives us a bear IB. Worker gives text-book shooting star. Risky counter-trend short back to 0.9020 level. Sit this out.
Eurnzd – Boss minor down trend still intact and now we have the MAJOR up tl broken. Boss hammer of sorts. - Poss test now of the broken TL from underneath so wait for PA retrace. No trade here against such a strong trend down.
Gbpcad – Messy. Last week gave us a BEEB again. Still in a down Trend. Major up TL's have been broken. Wait for test of broken TL. No trade here.
Nzdusd – Boss is still in major UP trend. Broken thru 61% Fib retrace could be targeting the 77% retrace at 0.7386? Major UP TL's still intact. Looks too long to get in so. Worker gives us a S Star but then Fri closed with a spinning top. Sit this one out as last week. Long above worker S Star high only
Audyen – Boss chart in major Barb Wire, still – had a major up TL break then a higher high. Fallen back from this high and given a BEEB but still above UP TL. Worker gives us a hammer but after a BEOB and under 2nd major up TL. RR not good enough for a long as SR at 78.93 is too close. Neutral.
EurCad – Had one major UP TL break but the second one is holding so far after the hammer a few weeks back. Boss gives us a BEOB. All Mas are flat but worker gives a S Star. Stand aside on this one as RR on S Star would not be good enough to short due to proximity of the daily Up TL.
GbpAud – Boss chart in a major downtrend but last weeks close shows a bullish hammer with body inside the last down bar and after 2 pushes down from the BEEB 13 weeks ago. Worker gives us a BUEB but we have not had a TL break so I would only imagine this getting as far as the 20ema at 1.8724 ish. Wait for down TL break and retest of hammer before going LONG.
CadJpy – Boss up TL still intact (just) after two tests. Worker shows 2 hammers much as the other yen pairs right off the Up TL and SR at 81.91. Long wit major up trend but counter the immediate down trend. At 50% retrace from last swing low hammer to high after double top and TL breaks. Long only
3 Oct 2009
2 Oct 2009
1 Oct 2009
State of play...
As you can see I'm not trading live at the moment; I'm still on demo but the good news is that I've remained profitable after a dip in the equity curve, I'm back on track. The main reasons for this, I think, is that demo trading is quite easy as there is no FEAR. When you have live profit at risk you'll often find/look for any excuse to take profits rather than have the market come back and turn a winner into a loser. I have done this many times in the live environment but not so on demo.
I have been employing a new intra-trade style whereby I will trade from one SR level to the next and then on reaching that level, close out half of the position. It then locks in some profits and becomes a 'free' trade. The best way of dealing with that trade after this is to (and thanks Trader_dante) keep the stop above/below the last low or high that penetrates an SR level. This seems to be working well. I also have to thank Beachtrader for his excellent blog and opening my eyes to the horizontal plane of the markets and paying attention to the most recent levels. I do still believe in the power of trendlines (thanks to Al Brooks' excellent book) but I try and eliminate all those that are 'spent' only keeping the most relevant. The only downside to TLs is that expectation that is attached to them; it stifles initiative sometimes and makes you enter the market with an ill-conceived idea of what will happen.
My greatest downfall is looking at fundamentals and 'thinking' I know what will happen. I firmly believe that if you choose the path of becoming a Tech Trader (Chartist) you must solely read the chart and nothing else. If you trade on fundamentals then you must be patient and have very wide stops, almost become an investor, not a trader. There is no edge in the news/ data as most of the big boys already know this and wait for the minnows to react to a news event and come in and 'fade' that news mostly. although I don't trade the news there are dedicated teams out there that do with a better bid/offer spread than any retail guys can get - so I believe there is little point.
Anyway, in the next few weeks I will be going live and recording all the trades here. I have a new spreadsheet to monitor all my trades and hyperlinks to charts, ratios etc. by logging all the trades here I will become accountable to myself and those that I choose to give access too. Whilst forums are great for learning in the live environment they can become distracting as people will always offer a counter reason for a trade and I have often been swayed by bad advice.
There are NO shortcuts in this game, no holy grail - only a chart, the market and you. The true grail is the person you look at in the mirror in the morning. (Thanks Strat!)
Thanks to Nicola (Elitejets) for providing the inspiration and continued friendship and mentoring to get me this far and for the steer to Strat’s thread. The only 2 threads I would recommend are Trader_dante's thread 'Making Money Trading' on T2W and Strats 'Long term stress free trading' ForexFactory. Stop searching for the Holy Grail, learn Price Action and demo for 3 months profitably before you commit live funds to the markets!
I have been employing a new intra-trade style whereby I will trade from one SR level to the next and then on reaching that level, close out half of the position. It then locks in some profits and becomes a 'free' trade. The best way of dealing with that trade after this is to (and thanks Trader_dante) keep the stop above/below the last low or high that penetrates an SR level. This seems to be working well. I also have to thank Beachtrader for his excellent blog and opening my eyes to the horizontal plane of the markets and paying attention to the most recent levels. I do still believe in the power of trendlines (thanks to Al Brooks' excellent book) but I try and eliminate all those that are 'spent' only keeping the most relevant. The only downside to TLs is that expectation that is attached to them; it stifles initiative sometimes and makes you enter the market with an ill-conceived idea of what will happen.
My greatest downfall is looking at fundamentals and 'thinking' I know what will happen. I firmly believe that if you choose the path of becoming a Tech Trader (Chartist) you must solely read the chart and nothing else. If you trade on fundamentals then you must be patient and have very wide stops, almost become an investor, not a trader. There is no edge in the news/ data as most of the big boys already know this and wait for the minnows to react to a news event and come in and 'fade' that news mostly. although I don't trade the news there are dedicated teams out there that do with a better bid/offer spread than any retail guys can get - so I believe there is little point.
Anyway, in the next few weeks I will be going live and recording all the trades here. I have a new spreadsheet to monitor all my trades and hyperlinks to charts, ratios etc. by logging all the trades here I will become accountable to myself and those that I choose to give access too. Whilst forums are great for learning in the live environment they can become distracting as people will always offer a counter reason for a trade and I have often been swayed by bad advice.
There are NO shortcuts in this game, no holy grail - only a chart, the market and you. The true grail is the person you look at in the mirror in the morning. (Thanks Strat!)
Thanks to Nicola (Elitejets) for providing the inspiration and continued friendship and mentoring to get me this far and for the steer to Strat’s thread. The only 2 threads I would recommend are Trader_dante's thread 'Making Money Trading' on T2W and Strats 'Long term stress free trading' ForexFactory. Stop searching for the Holy Grail, learn Price Action and demo for 3 months profitably before you commit live funds to the markets!
27 Sept 2009
Wkly analysis for week commencing 27 Sep 09
Lt Sweet Crude Oct Fut – Boss chart is no bearish as the up trend line has been broken as has the last low of the uptrend. Price closed below the Boss 20 ema. Next SR level to target is 59.00. Only IRAN could foul things up this week and send oil rocketing again.
Nat Gas – Major move up last week but long is on as the down TL has been broken and tested around the SR level at 3.812. PA is now above the 20 and 50 emas on the worker chart. Long only above the LAST HIGH of the down move at 4.110
Gold – Up trend still intact. At key $1000 level. Only trade long but bear in mind we could be at a top after 2 strong TL breaks this could be a higher high. Weekly spinning top this week at 1000 level. Buy pullbacks.
DowJones Sep Fut -(YMZ9) – Up TL still intact. Boss now above Big Boss 20ema. PA is at top after 3 pushed up ending in a doji. Poss top as we are at the major down TL now on the boss chart. Last week ended with a bear candle but could be an IB on the bodies only. Iran may play havoc this week as people will get spooked. Watch closely!
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Boss chart still bullish, Up TL still intact. Also had 3 pushes higher; Boss shows a bear IB. . Poss market top. Also right on the 50% Fib from boss H to L. Worker chart shows a break below the recent up TL but we are resting on the support from the BO from the last high of the up trend. Wait for TL break and test before short.
Cable – Trapped under Monthly 20ema and at major down TL from high thru recent shooting star. Last week was a bear candle but we are right on the 1.5900 SR level. Up TL is now broken and tested. Short only on pullbacks – now below the Boss 20 ema.
Gbpyen. - Now had 2 TL break and the boss hammer l2 weeks ago worked as planned and we had another big bear candle. PA has now broken below the 50sma again. Short only on pull backs – target of 131.00
Gbpchf – This pair is still in free fall and has broken all support and Mas. 157.00 level next as the poss support from the broken down TL? Short only on pullbacks.
Eurusd – Still in an Up Trend but boss shows a spinning top on the key 1.47 level (same level as the rejected lash high in Dec 08. Wait for confirmation but a poss top from a failed wedge BO.
Audusd – Major up TL is still intact on boss with bullish PA. Boss shows another spinning top (pause bar). Wait for PA but don't bet against the boss.
Usdchf – Boss has broken thru all major levels and up TL's and is still bearish . No trade here.
Usdcad – BUEB on boss chart this week bouncing off support at 1.0680. The major UP TL has been broken but I would only imagine a test of this broken TL from the underside so any longs would target 1.1060ish at first and the monthly 50sma.
USDYEN – Major down TL's have been broken and PA is very bearish. Very steep minor down TL but the last low of the UP TL has been broken. Boss shows a BEEB and PA is resting on the major monthly UP TL. Short only with target of 86.00
Euryen – Major UP TL has been broken and tested from underneath. Last boss candle was a hammer but last week gave a loose IB that has been broken to the upside. Boss shows a poss BEEB under the broken up TL. Short only on pullbacks.
Eurgbp – Major UP Trend is still intact with minor DOWN TL now broken and poss tested. Boss gives us a 2nd large bull trend bar. LONG ONLY on pullbacks.
Eurnzd – Boss down TL still intact and we have a BEEB this week too. PA closed below the broken Up TL now but also approaching the monthly 50sma. 2.036 level acting as support on the worker. Wait for PA to confirm.
Gbpcad – Messy. Last week gave us an inverted hammer. Worker has put in a very loose HL. Still in a down Trend. Major up TL's have been broken. Wait for test of broken TL.
Nzdusd – Boss is still in major UP trend. Broken thru 61% Fib retrace could be targeting the 77% retrace at 0.7386? Major UP TL's still intact. Worker gives us a shooting star 3 days ago. Boss chart still very bullish. Sit out until TL is broken.
Audyen – Boss chart still in major Barb Wire – had a major up TL break then a higher high but has now closed with a bear candle. Closed below both worker Mas. Last low of the up trend has not been broken so wait for this break at 76.00 level to break.
EurCad – Long only as we have another bull candle close above the Tls this week. PA above the 2 worker Mas and the 20ema from the boss. Need a break of the boss 50sma now but we are still in this long term bear channel.
GbpCad – In a major down trend. Short only on pullbacks, target of 1.5165
24 Sept 2009
nzdusd
Still not comfortable with this trade although I have left the order in the market at .7140. Trade did not trigger today and moved the least out of all the USD pairs. Must be some right old strength in that baby!! So, although on demo it had not triggered from yesterday.
Still, it's counter trend - should really wait for the up TL to be broken and tested. Cable was a great new-with-trend entry today producing 350pips - I sat that one out :(
23 Sept 2009
Nzdusd - Demo Trade Short
Demo trade as an ATM to at least the up DSRI. Would add if that was broken and tested. Could be a risky top pick though as the $ should depreciate further after the news from the FOMC today. It could be due a breather though so would target SR at 0.6886 and DRSI and take off 50% there.
21 Sept 2009
Weekly Analysis WE 25 Sep 09
Had a rough weekend on the booze in Newcastle so posting a day late as I was away!
Lt Sweet Crude Oct Fut – Boss chart is still bullish but the major up TL has now been broken. Rejected the 72.00 level and stuck under the B Boss 20ema. Still no short here until the TL is tested from underneath and the dly 50sma is broken along with the 67.00 level
Nat Gas – Major move up last week but to long this we need to see the TL broken and tested around the SR level at 3.812. PA is now above the 20 and 50 emas on the worker chart.
Gold – Up trend still intact. At key $1000 level. Only trade long but bear in mind we could be at a top after 2 strong TL breaks this could be a higher high. Weekly spinning top this week at 1000 level. Buy pullbacks.
DowJones Sep Fut -(YMZ9) – Up TL still intact. Boss now above Big Boss 20ema. PA is at top after 3 pushed up ending in a doji. Poss top as we are at the major down TL now on the boss chart. Watch closely!
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Boss chart still bullish, Up TL still intact. Also had 3 pushes higher; daily on HM and IB. Poss market top. Also right on the 50% Fib from boss H to L. Wait for TL break and test before short.
Cable – Trapped under Monthly 20ema and at major down TL from high thru recent shooting star. Last week was a BEEB. Up TL is now broken and tested. Short only below Boss 20 ema and last low.
Gbpyen. - Now had 2 TL break and the boss hammer last week may have trapped traders. PA stuck under boss 20ema but over boss 50 so in the TRAP still at 148.95 ish. Wait for PA but with the TL breaks and double top, only consider short.
Gbpchf - Had 2 major up TL breaks and PA is still trapped under the minor down TL after a lower high. Boss bearish candle trapped under 20ema. Major down trend bar last week so only short this pair. Next target is the 1.6490 level.
Eurusd – Broken out of triangle BUT has rejected 61% fib. Large bullish candle on boss but there is a daily Shooting Star on worker at this key LEVEL. Wait for major fib level and last high at 1.47 level to go before long.
Audusd – Major up TL is still intact on boss with bullish PA. Boss shows a spinning top (pause bar). Wait for PA but don't bet against the boss.
Usdchf – Boss has broken thru major levels and up TL's . No trade here.
Usdcad – Bearish PA BUT we have had a LOWER LOW after a down TL break; PA is battling at the low and had now been supported by the broken Down TL and is now in Barb Wire. Price is also still BELOW the major Broken UP TL from the boss but the down TL support has given us a higher low. Leaning toward long but wait for resolution of BARB WIRE at this big 1.0781 level.
USDYEN – Major down TL's have been broken and PA is very bearish. Very steep minor down TL but the last low of the UP TL has been broken. Steep worker TL has been broken so we could be setting up for a test with a lower low OR a bounce off that TL so it becomes support. Wait for PA.
Euryen – Major UP TL has been broken and tested from underneath. Last boss candle was a hammer but last week gave a loose IB that has been broken to the upside. Still long only until last low of the UP trend is broken.
Eurgbp – Major UP Trend is still intact with minor DOWN TL now broken and poss tested. Boss gives us a large bull trend bar. LONG ONLY on pullbacks
Eurnzd – Boss minor down trend still intact and now we have the MAJOR up tl broken. Boss Spinning top - Could be a failed BO of TL– Worker shows a down TL break then a lower low. Intersection of the 2 TL's. Wait for PA to decide but side with Short until proved otherwise. PA still under worker 20ema.
Gbpcad – Messy. Last week gave us a BEEB. Still in a down Trend. Major up TL's have been broken. Wait for test of broken TL.
Nzdusd – Boss is still in major UP trend. Broken thru 61% Fib retarce could be targeting the 77% retrace at 0.7386? Major UP TL's still intact. Looks too long to get in so, sit this one out as last week.
Audyen – Boss chart in major Barb Wire – had a major up TL break then a higher high. Fallen back from this high and given a BEEB but still above UP TL. Worker shows caught in the 20/50 trap but last bar was bearish. Only short below 76.60 (break of 2nd Up TL and last low of the up trend). Same as last week. Trade long only but only on bull PASR
EurCad – Had one major UP TL break but the second one is holding so far after the hammer a few weeks back. Boss is bullish with PA above the B Boss 20ema. But, we are in the Boss 20/50 trap also at the base of a long large channel. Only trade LONG. Had worker golden cross and PA is above the 20ema after a hammer off that 3 days ago. Long only
16 Sept 2009
14 Sept 2009
Pairs to concentrate on!
From Strat's thread:
USD/CHF
USD/JPY
GBP/USD
USD/CAD
NZD/USD
EUR/JPY
EUR/CAD
GBP/JPY
AUD/JPY
EUR/USD
USD/CHF
USD/JPY
AUD/USD
GBP/USD
USD/CAD
NZD/USD
EUR/JPY
EUR/CAD
GBP/JPY
AUD/JPY
New ETX
Well, thought I was short cable today and short eurusd but for some reason cable never triggerd. The broker email said I cancelled it? (new broker - etxcapital); haven't quite got to grips with placing orders etc yet? Why do brokers never offer an option to close out incrementaly? Why are they all so different - must find a new broker that offers limit orders at fractions of the opening price to better control risk!
So, eurusd spiked and took me out and cable was canx - not a great day for my £100 starting capital. :(
13 Sept 2009
Start of week analysis and direction.
Lt Sweet Crude Oct Fut – Boss Hanging Man below the Major UP TL at 69.00 level. Only short if Hanging Man low breaks. Daily shows BEOB. 67.00 is the major Level so wait for PA at this key level.
Nat Gas – Boss 'Barb Wire' at base of long down move – wait for resolution.
Gold – Up trend still intact. At key $1000 level. Only trade long but bear in mind we could be at a top after 2 strong TL breaks this could be a higher high.
DowJones Sep Fut -(YMU9) – Up TL still intact. Boss trapped under the Big Boss 20ema. PA is at top after 3 pushed up ending in a doji. Poss top. Wait for PA and TL break to go short.
FTSE Fut – Boss chart still bullish, Up TL still intact. Also had 3 pushes higher; daily on HM and IB. Poss market top. Wait for TL break and test before short.
Cable – Trapped under Monthly 20ema and at major down TL from high thru recent shooting star. Daily on Doji under up TL break. Poss LH after a TL break. Short below Doji.
Gbpyen. - Now had 2 TL break and the boss hammer last week may have trapped traders. PA stuck under boss 20ema but over boss 50 so in the TRAP. Wait for PA but with the TL breaks and double top, only consider short.
Gbpchf - Had 2 major up TL breaks and PA is still trapped under the minor down TL after a lower high. Boss bearish candle trapped under 20ema. Worker shows a BUOB then an IB. Also a triple bottom. Only short if that bottom is broken.
Eurusd – Broken out of triangle BUT has rejected 61% fib. Large bullish candle on boss but there is a daily Shooting Star on worker at this key LEVEL. Poss FAILED B/OUT Short below Star.
Audusd – Major up TL is still intact on boss with bullish PA. Worker shows Doji but poss Barb Wire – wait for PA but don't bet against the boss.
Usdchf – Boss has broken thru major levels and up TL's after BEEB. No trade here.
Usdcad – Bearish PA BUT we have had a LOWER LOW after a down TL break; PA is battling at the low and had now been supported by the broken Down TL and is now in Barb Wire. Price is also still BELOW the major Broken UP TL from the boss but the down TL support has given us a higher low. Leaning toward long but wait for resolution of BARB WIRE.
USDYEN – Major down TL's have been broken and PA is very bearish. Very steep minor down TL but the last low of the UP TL has been broken. Short only on retrace.
Euryen – Major UP TL has been broken and tested from underneath. Last boss candle was a hammer but this week gave a loose IB. Only short on retrace with good PA.
Eurgbp – Major UP Trend is still intact with minor DOWN TL now broken and poss tested. Worker gives us a HIGHER LOW and a hammer. Boss gives an Inverted Hammer. LONG ONLY
Eurnzd – Boss minor down trend still intact and now we have the MAJOR up tl broken. Could be a failed BO – Worker shows a down TL break then a lower low. Intersection of the 2 TL's. Wait for PA to decide but side with Short until proved otherwise.
Gbpcad – Messy. Still in a down Trend. Major up TL's have been broken. Large S Star on boss last week and this week an IB. Wait for break of IB but side with short.
Nzdusd – Boss is still in major UP trend. Broken thru 61% Fib retarce could be targeting the 77% retrace at 0.7386? Major UP TL's still intact. Looks too long to get in so, sit this one out.
Audyen – Boss chart in major Barb Wire – had a major up TL break then a higher high. Fallen back from this high and given a BEEB but still above UP TL. Worker shows caught in the 20/50 trap but last bar was bearish. Only short below 76.60 (break of 2nd Up TL and last low of the up trend)
Audnzd – Only short below 1.2080 below major up TL and the break of the last low of the Up Trend. Caught in a down trend channel but could be a big bull flag.
10 Sept 2009
USDCAD
Still long usdcad - just. The gold order short was never triggered. The indices are looking weak now with a big BEOB on the 4hr futures chart. So, down 58 pips on that trade today.
8 Sept 2009
Levels
Forgot to say ref last posts as they are counter-trend at this moment I have limit orders in at the next SR levels. Once a new trend is established on each pair then I will have the confidence to allow each trade to run. I'd do this by waiting for the trend line Rule of 4 to be established then look for a PA entry in line with the trend.
ETX Account
Well, took advantage of a free £100 with ETX Capital today. I have a short order in for gold on the appreance of the daily Shooting Star at $1000 level and a long usdcad order above the daily hammer.
See chart:
7 Sept 2009
Mon FTSE Stopped out
No trading today - FTSE order from last week was stopped out for a loss. On reflection I should have never went short this market as the major TL (daily) had not been violated or even tested. Do remember NEVER to trade against the major trend - because you are trying to enforce your EGO onto the market and thinking you are better than what the CHART is telling you.
You will never become successful unless you TRADE THE PLAN. Period.
4 Sept 2009
Close on Friday
Well, not an ace week but what would one expect in NFP week? Still short FTSE and still short audusd after an 1hr S Star entry this evening.
Stopped out of eurgbp (after closing out 50%) and then stopped out of gbpchf. Will wait for a better DAILY entry once back on the plan next week.
3 Sept 2009
1hr and 4hr TFs????
What are these TFs Daniel?? 1 and 4hr? what happened to the dailies?
No panic - I'm on leave this week and I'm selecting the best trades (non-usd) on the daily and waiting for tighter entries on the MIN 1hr TF - No Lower - so I'm not hunting the lower TFs more gaining a tight entry based on 1hr and 4hr SR levels and PASR in the daily direction. All this because I have time this week.
Back to work next week so no matter what - back to the daily TF as I'll only be looking at the charts for a quick 30mins after 2200UK time each evening!!
Pulled or rather stopped out of audusd - I moved the stop last night to the top of the daily IB and was taken out today - small profit and I'll wait till after US NFP on Fri and Labor Day on Mon before entering the market again.
I've initiated a small short position in gbpchf based on the pullback and textbook 1hr Shooting Star. Been looking for an entry into this pair - just hope that NFP leaves this one alone. IMF warned today that the UK was the worst placed country to pull thru the recession too; that should help this piece of crap sterling plummet and also help my other 12 pip risk position long eurgbp that I took this evening on the appearance of H4 ii candle formation at the weekly 20ema. I'm pretty sure we will see another attempt on the big down TL - hoping for a break thru with such small risk (12 pips) that I risked £2 per point. Again, could be risky with NFP but I'm hoping these pairs are left alone unless CABLE messes the party up tomorrow?? We will see!
1 Sept 2009
31 Aug 2009
Well, went live with three trades today:
1. Cable short at 16238 Stop at 16353 above BEOB the reentred on 15m S/Star stop at star top.
2. FTSE Fut short at 4880 Stop at 4950 above 1hr S/Star
3. Audusd short at .8365 stop at 8476 above dly S/Star
I knew I should not have entred the Cable trade as there was a 4hr Pin against it. But like a mong I did it anyway. What happened to trading reversals with first having a TL break then strong move back to that TL high or LH or LL?? PATIENCE!! The daily cable was a clear example of Barb Wire. NEVER trade barb wire! Again! Right!
See charts below:
29 Aug 2009
I just thought I'd share with you this weekend some of the stuff I have learnt over the past couple of weeks with regard to trend trading and counter trend trading. When I started out (4yrs ago) I was trading blind just looking for a chart was that going up and buying because it looked good. I won a bit and lost a bit. Then I came across Trader_Dante's thread Making Money Trading over on T2W which I found to be a revelation. I had never considered Fibs and SR levels or even individual candle patterns and I was amazed that some good soul had taken the time to show new traders how and what the market did and why. That thread and the J16 thread really got me interested in the markets and trading, but I STILL thought I knew best and tried 'fitting' many silly indicators and lines to my charts thinking I could get the march on the markets. I have a shelf full of trading books all about RSI, MACD, Force Index, Convergence, Divergence etc and I filled my head with all that senseless crap. So then I started to 'give' the markets my cash as I found my little systems never stood up in the live market. Great in hindsight but crap in practise. So, then I went back to 'pin bars' (hammers and shooting stars) and re-read Tom's thread over on T2W. I had some success but I still didn't seem to be making it as a trader because I was programmed to be a counter trend trader without having any real idea what a trend was in the first place and when that trend was broken. To me, this is the BIG danger with learning some of these formations unless you RIGIDLY stick to taking them as fades (ie reversals back INTO the main underlying trend). This was my big undoing as I was trying to trade every hammer and shooting star always looking for those 1000pip plus moves at the top or bottom of a big trend break. So then, in Jan of this year I came across another 'thread' and some pro's down in Spain who had set up a live room with a special chart set up. Now, although I couldn't trade in their way, I did learn am few things from them guys like the importance of the 20 and 50 mas (I'd never used them before) and the ability to set MT4 up showing some of that info across the charts (ie Boss MAs on the worker charts). Their system was not for me as they used 'averaging' candles that HID the PA from traders. This seemed odd to me; why would you 'hide' the PA? I also found that the heiken ashi candles were only good after the event and didn't trade well live. And as for the 15min TF - Well, we all know how stressful that is!! But, I did meet some good people there and I'm still in contact with a few of them today, so there are many positives to that experience including my friend introducing me to this thread back in April 09. Since coming across this thread and Strat's instruction I feel I have learnt much more about trading etc in the past few months than the previous 3 yrs! The odd thing is, I already knew a lot of it and debunked it because I wouldn't believe that trading could be that simple. Well, I can save you a few years and a good few thousand pounds/dollars etc and tell you that the only way to trade and mix it with the pro's is with PRICE ACTION. This is the 'grail' to the markets. Why don't many people learn this stuff? Well, I reckon some see it as too hard to bother with and would rather have an EA tell them when to trade. It could be that some people think it is a lot harder than this (I did) and look for complex systems. Learning PA may seem like a hard slog but believe me, once you start to see the PASR you can have a little chuckle when you read a chart because you can see what may be about to unfold (I say MAY as there are no certainties in this business). Lets looks at the chart below to illustrate the point. The chart is the FTSE Fut chart As you can see the FTSE is in a strong up trend since Mar 2003 and if you wanted to make money all you had to do was buy on every dip to that Trend Line(TL). All the MAs are in the right order too, so we would never consider shorting this market. The key to making money is identifying a trend early on and the sticking with it. Once you have a low then a high then a higher low its time to jump on board. Trends often go on a lot longer than people think. As you can see at Point A, the market broke that UP TL; this was our first warning that the bulls were running out of steam and a trend change could be in the offing. Now, most TL break need confirming with a test and sometimes these tests will result in a higher high (Point B) or a lower low (in a down trend). What we look for here is a reversal pattern (we are now looking for a short because of the TL break) and in 14 Oct 2007 we had a BEOB. Now aggressive traders may take this setup as their short. The more conservative amongst you may wish to see the test of the break of that TL from underneath before you traded. As you can see at Point C we had a test of the TL break from underneath with an Inside Bar. IBs are dangerous but they are best if they trade in the way you expect them to go. So, if you are looking for a short you would not take a green or bullish IB break. But that's not being taught on Strat's thread so I'll zip it!) So, we have now had effectively a 1-2-3 set up. We have had a major TL break, a new high back into that TL and now we are looking for the 123 to get us in. We had this with this double top, (1) the back down thru the TL and 20ema (2) then back up to underneath the TL with a lower high (3). [B]This is a text book short set up trend reversal. [/B] We then had another TL test (the final UP TL) drawn from the March 2003 lows to the Aug 2004 lows and beyond. Look at how that TL break in Jan 2008 was tested from underneath in May 2008. This time we had a BEOB. This was also a 'Low 2 Short' (ie the 2nd lower high after the peak) and this gave rise to the best short of the lot with 2 large pushes down to the MAJOR yearly up TL at 3700 region. Point D is the down trend line from the peak thru the Low 2 high and beyond. Until this TL is broken we are still, really, in a down trend and this current thrust could yet be a retrace back into that TL. The current chart is showing a steeply rising wedge pattern and the current rate of ascent is unsustainable in my opinion and a test of the monthly 20ema. I think once Sept Oct starts we could see this rally peak at about the 5000-5100 level before starting a new leg down. Again, wait for the micro TL break (ie the lower part of the wedge pattern) and the retest of that break before going short. Al says in his book that most market moves involve 2 pushes down and 3 pushes up. If this is the case then we may see some corrective action this week or next before a final small 3rd push up into that descending TL and the 5100 region before the resumption of the down trend. Hope I've not got above my station here or explained this well enough for people to understand; I would invite comments to the contrary for learning of course!
28 Aug 2009
No Trading today after being busted yesterday. More chart reading required. This week I have learnt the importance of sticking with the trend. Only take a counter-trend trade once it becomes the new trend (after a significant TL break, a retest to a lower low or higher high) then the resumption of the new trend!
Dollar May Fall as Rebound in Oil, Stocks Triggers Stop Losses
By Ye Xie and Oliver Biggadike
Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may extend its decline against the euro on reduced demand for safety after crude oil and U.S. stocks rebounded, encouraging traders to sell the U.S. currency to limit losses.
The Canadian dollar advanced yesterday against its U.S. counterpart by the most in two weeks as crude oil rose after failing to sustain a drop below $70 a barrel. The Norwegian krone also gained. The dollar depreciated versus most of its major counterparts, declining to the weakest level this year versus the Swiss franc.
“The turnaround in oil and equities set off the moves in commodity currencies,” said Alan Ruskin, head of international currency strategy in North America at RBS Securities Inc. in Stamford, Conn. “Long-dollar positions have been stopped out big-time.” A long is a bet a currency will appreciate.
Looks like the black gold is still in charge then!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)