Options Expiry Dates 2010

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Weekly Analysis - WE 16 Apr 10

Another mixed bag this week - Eq's just keep rallying and the 3 TFs are not all lining up nicely in many Forex pairs. Another week of patience!

Weekly Analysis WE 9 Apr 10

Some strong action against the Yens - looks like the start of a new trend of Yen being sold?

Apr Analysis

Weekly analysis updated to reflect the cross into April (ie new Monthly data)

The week ahead - 28 Mar 10

Mixed bag really this week - nothing too inspiring - markets seem to be in equilibrium.

Could this be the top for EQs??

Weekly Analysis - looks like USD could rally off some key levels. I also like CADYEN short if the textbook daily Shooting Star low is activated. Euro and Sterling look short again.

This week's analysis - could things now be on the move with EurUsd and UsdChf looking like they have broken free of the recent range?Plenty of daily hammers and shooting stars about too so we could see some major trend reversals - does Forex lead the EQs? All will be revealed!

S&P Double top? Or will Dr Joe have his day - it keeps going up!! Cable is still looking bullish too.

Cable Long anyone - risky and counter trend but has cable shorting been over done?

Benway - you'll be filling up your wellies on this one!

Weekly Analysis for 8 March. Odd week with mixed messages. Will the EQs double top or will they carry on up? They are leading the Forex pairs like AUDUSD and CADYEN etc

New Format for Weekly and Monthly Analysis

New Format for the weekly/ monthly analysis. Colour coded for ease of reference. Been trialing in for a few weeks now and much more user friendly. Only take trades on the pairs that have all the same colour when reading across the rows. For example, all GBP crosses are bearish and should only be shorted on the worker on pullbacks! Allows me more time on studying this MBA with Cranfield (which is very hard btw, so only trading small lots on weekly these days!)

Blog Software changes text format???? Grrrr!!

Why does the formatting always change in this wretched Blog software?? It's painful and long winded having to change the format from word/excel all the time? Does anyone know of any better way of posting from word etc that keeps the same format and fonts etc?

Weekly Analysis WE 17 Jan 09

Well, life has a funny way of changing things for you. Looks like I've been accepted onto the work's MBA programme for the next 2 years so study time will be tight. Consequently, I have changed the format of my weekly analysis to give me a quick reference guide as I found I was not referring to the words each week on here to check my daily trade ideas with the weekly analysis. As I'm a weekly trend trader using the daily (worker) to find tighter entries I need a quick visual reference guide to the immediate underlying trends of the higher TFs. This new method should be a quicker to produce guide and easier to use in the week. I hope some to find it of more use and will update as I use in in anger of the next few weeks!

MONTHLY AND WEEKLY TREND ANALYSIS

01/Jan 17/Jan

PAIR MONTHLY WEEKLY CANDLE Weekly 20/50
Crude ▲ ▲ Breakout Bull trend Above
Gas ►◄ ▲ BEEB then S Star Above
Gold ▲ ▲ Hammer, IB then BUEB Above
S&P ▲ ▲ Weekly BUOB Above
Dow ▲ ▲ Weekly BUOB Above
FTSE ▲ ▲ Weekly BUOB Above
Cable ▼ ▲ Weekly IB in 20/50 Trap Above
GBPYEN ▼ ▲ Weekly Bear IB above 20 Above
GBPCHF ▼ ▼ Weekly BEEB ON SR level Below
EURGBP ▲ ▲ Weekly Bull IB on Consolidation Above
EURUSD ▲ ▲ BUEB on key SR level Above
AUDUSD ▲ ▲ Weekly Bull trend bar above small descending TL Above
USDCHF ▼ ▼ ►◄ Poss Double bottom forming – not tested Below
USDCAD ▼ ▼ BEEB below last range Below
NZDUSD ▲ ▲ Bull bar but trading back into Monthly Shooting Star Above
USDYEN ▼ ▲ Bear Doji just above 91.00 level Below
EURYEN ▲ ▲ Bull Spinning top but right on monthly down TL between 134-131 Above
AUDYEN ▲ ▲ Bull trend bar BO above last high Above
NZDYEN ▲ ▲ Bull trend bar but not above last high – poss broken TL under test! Above
CADYEN ▲ ▲ Bull trend bar but could be forming a bear flag Dbl top Above
GBPCAD ▼ ▼ Weekly BEEB not on any SR Below
GBPAUD ▼ ▼ Weekly bear trend bar into low of monthly hammer – nearly invalidated Below
EURCAD ►◄ ▼ Weekly BEAR trend bar but bounced off SR at 1.4728. Below
AUDNZD ►◄ ▲ Weekly Bull Trend bar above last week's high. Flat

Trend Line break and Retest of trend Extreme

Al Brooks said this is the best lowest risk trade one can ever hope for. A strong TL break on good momentum then a bullish candle with a HL. This will now go on to test the trendline extreme either with a HH or LH. Either way a classic example of a low risk trade that I SHOULD have took!

Russian Shares

This quote must be a huge contrarian sell signal from the Daily Telegraph!!

More than 95pc of analyst ratings on Russian stocks are "buy" or "hold", according to Bloomberg data. This is the highest level since the organisation began tracking the information in 1997

Monthly and Weekly Analysis WE 8 Jan 10

Lt Sweet Crude Feb Fut – Monthly chart shows a Hanging Man candle after a low break of Nov's IB trapped under the 61% retrace from the last weekly swing high to low. Boss chart shows 3 bull candles into the underside of the up TL from the lows. The Boss trend is still up but after a TL break be mindful of a test of the trend's extreme. Will wait out for price action here but siding with SHORT on good PA.

Nat Gas Feb Fut(NGF0)– Monthly chart shows bull candle breaking high of Nov's. Boss chart shows a BEOB and poss double top under the Rest level at 6.075. Wait for PA at the next SR level at 5.297 to show the way.

Gold – Monthly bear IB (Candle bodies). Boss S Star candle off highs worked nicely for past 4 weeks but we now have a Boss IB within a hammer from the previous week that bounced off the 20ema. Long above 1122 hammer high or short below 1082 IB low.

DowJones Mar Fut -(YMH0) – Monthly small bull candle still on the 50% H to L retrace. Weekly shows a gravestone doji in a small wekly range. Worker shows a BEOB under the rising TL. Short below 10415 for risky counter-trend trade or wait for pullback to 20ema and good bull PA to get long with trend.

FTSE Mar Fut (FFIH0)– Monthly bull candle in Dec. just poking thru the descending TL from the highs. Boss shows a bear candle that gapped up above recent range. Price is squeezed between the junctre of the up and down TL's and SR level at 5100. Wait for PA to show the route out. Neutral.

Cable – Big Boss shows a S Star in Nov, and Dec's candle was bearish but came off the lows. Boss shows a BUOB candle off SR but on low Xmas volumes still stick in the May – Dec range. Worker shows a bull candle but it came off the highs and 20ema and the 61% retrace from the last swing high to low. Short below 1.6040.

Gbpyen. - B Boss is in a downtrend. Dec close gave us a BUEB but it didn't break last month's high. Bull candle on Boss charts with the 20 and 50 MA's flat. Worker shows a bull break of all the MA's and SR level at 148.95. Long only on Pull-backs.

Gbpchf – Monthly chart still in a downtrend. Dec shows a small inverted hammer off the small rising TL from the lows. Boss charts is in a small triangle pattern. Worker MA's are flat so NEUTRAL until Triangle Break Out.

Eurusd – Monthly chart shows a BEOB/BEEB. After a good TL break on strong momentum. Boss chart shows 2 small doji's off the 1.4330 SR zone. But still under the boss 20ema. I would now expect a retrace into the monthly BEEB to test the old trend's extreme (a la Al Brooks!). This should be one of his best trades as it's pretty sure we'll get a test of the old high area after such a long trend up. Worker is stuck in some awful BarbWire giving mixed signals. Side with long above 1.4530 SR level to test the old high at 1.5000 zone, but only on good PA.

Audusd – Monthly still in Up trend but bounced off the 261% Fib projection from the low to the first up swing from the lows. Dec gave a bear doji really that came off the up TL but also the lows. Boss shows a bull candle after the weak hammer the week before but we are at the 61% retrace from swing H to L which a lot of traders target. The recent down TL, 20ema and SR at .9016 all give great confluence for a short trade below 0.8923. AUDUSD seems to resepct the 61% retrace between Swings so thanks BeachTrader for showing me that Fib method. **

Usdchf – Double bottom is in as we have 3 bull candles, last weeks breaking the last high of the downtrend and Boss 20ema. Monthly shows a BUEB. Worker shows BarbWire but 2 hammers are more relevant. Long above 1.0390. **

Usdcad – Still waiting for the swing low confirmation by the top of the monthly hammer being taken out. Last 2 months have been IB's within the Hammer from Oct. Boss shows a bear spinning top after small down move of late. Worker MA's are flat and entwined. Wait for PA but side with long as most other $ pairs are looking strong still. Poss 61% Fib move setting up on the daily to watch out for.

Usdyen – Massive multi year double bottom in with a BUEB last month. Boss is in the 20/50 trap but we have a bull close above the 20ma for the first time in 5 months. Worker looks fully bid. I'm live in this already with stop at 91.75. Price has just broken above the major Monthly down TL too and we have had the worker 20/50 cross so I'm expecting this pair to retrace before going up again.

Euryen – Big Boss still in minor uptrend but in middle of charts range. Dec gives a Bull IB centred on the 131 SR Level. Boss shwoing 2 bull candles after a hammer 3 weeks ago but stuck under major down TL. Would expect some Yen retraces this week after such strong moves recently. Long only on Pullbacks though.

Eurgbp – Big Boss still in uptrend. Dec shows a BEEB right on that up trend line from the 07 lows. Boss shows a BEOB so siding with short below .8800 after a TL break and SR break. **

Eurnzd –Monthly chart pulled right back into base of hammer from Oct with a huge BEEB. This is after one big push down so I'd expect more selling here to have a meaningful 2 pushes down. Boss broke thru last low so short below 1.9655. I'm only watching this pair as the spread with IG is too wide at 25 pips bid-offer.

Gbpcad – B Boss still scream down. 2nd Monthly IB within Oct's hammer kind of candle. Boss shows a bull doji but in thin air. Worker shows a bear candle rejecting the 20ema but we look to have had a small double bottom in after a good TL break and test of the low. Long only on good strong PA.

Nzdusd – Monthly Shooter still in play but Dec shows a kind of hammer bar, so when in BarbWire it's always the last candle that counts I have found. If the shooter was going to break it would have done convincingly by now? Weekly chart shows a bull candle but into the bear TL from the top of the Shooting Star. Wait for PA but have to side with long after recent hammer. See how price reacts to down TL this week.

Audyen – Monthly up trend still intact. Bull IB within Nov's spinning top. Boss bounced off up TL and broke last high of small down move too. Long only on Pullbacks and with major trend.

EurCad – Monthly bear candle breaking last lows of range. Short only on good PA. Neutral this week though. Weekly shows a hammer too

GbpAud – Monthly hammer on trend channel overshoot low after 2 pushes down. 2nd IB within that Hammer now, so long only above 1.8095, stop at 1.7684. **

CadJpy – Monthly bull candle with boss bull candle too. Boss has broken out of recent range and 20ema from Monthly. Worker too bid, but wait for pullback to get long.

NzdJpy – Just like NZDUSD the shooting star maybe void. Large Dec bull canlde into that Shooter after a small down move trapping many traders. Could be a test of the underside of the broken up TL so waiting fot PA to show it's hand in the 68.00 area to reveal all!

AudNzd – Monthly BEOB. Boss broken 1.2454 SR level but resting on the monthly 20ema. Short only but wait for pullbacks.

audusd

Here's a trade I took over the Xmas period on Audusd on the break of an IB under a descending trend line.