Weekly Analysis - WE 20 Aug 2010

Monthly and Weekly Analysis WE 7 Aug 10

Weekly Analysis - WE 30 Jul 10

Weekly Analysis - WE 24 Jul 07

Looks Like the EQ double dip is on after all in the US!!

Weekly Analysis - WE 16 Jul 10

Monthly and Weekly Analysis WE 4 Jul 10

Few major trend changes this month/week

Weekly Analysis - WE 2 July 2010

Weekly Analysis WE 25 Jun 10

Looks like 'risk-on' again this week. Budget in UK may shape Stirling but rumours it will be bid on the austerity measures.

Short Dow Jones

Looks like a good set-up short - the dow sank on the closing session (that the pro's own!) and there is evidence on the xxxyen pairs that tomorrow will be negative for stocks. (Edit - this order never triggered and shows the strength in being patient and not trying for tighter entries into hammers etc on lower TFs. Always leave your entry a few pips above/below the candle!)

Long set-up on USDCAD

Possible long set up -123 with a hammer at a HL. Obama's comments on oil could hurt the CAD

Desire?

I'm also thinking of a position in Desire Petroleum. They have their second drill site quite near RockHoppers site and I feel they were unfairly punished when their first well came up dry. We now know that oil exists in the Northern Basin so this could be a good chance to pick up some shares in Desire while prices are depressed. I'm also locking away £1000 in BP as they have been smashed by the news and whilst they may still go down a little more I believe most of the news is now in the price. They are still a huge company and even if they do scrap the dividend thru political pressure - they will be back into super profits next year! Load up while they are cheap, (Edit: but only on supportive bullish price action on the weekly chart I forgot to say!!)

Falklands exposure via FOGL.LSE

Well, with a much bigger license area than Rockhopper (that has gone up 500% since striking oil in the north a few weeks back) Falkland Islands Oil and Gas (FOGL) has the chance of also becoming a 'ten-bagger' share. The company is due to report at the end of June on the first drilling at Toroa - I've had a love hate relationship with this share for many years but it could be make-or-break in early July.

Weekly Analysis WE 11 Jun 10

Quite a lot of neutral this week as some of the hammers on some pairs are still in play (ie lows not violated) I try and colour as per the swing in play and the controlling candle. For instance a hammer will mean a grey week until it's high is taken out positively meaning a new swing low has been put into place. Some weeks this can be confusing but I try and stick with the major trend in play. Forex trending looks so simple in hindsight - why am I still not short Euro after that great weekly shooting star and lower high?? Psychology - the stuff that separates winners and losers - ignore it at your trading peril!

Monthly and Weekly Analysis WE 6 Jun 10

Mixed bag this week. I'd expect some EQ retraces before the next leg down for new lows.

Weekly Analysis WE 21 May 10

Lots of xxxjpy IBs that could hold the key to how the EQ's develop? In the Flash Crash 2 week's ago the xxxjpy pairs started selling off some 50 mins before the Eq's crashed. Seems the carry trade is alive and well.

Silver Short??

Looks like a good set-up Short on Silver (spot)

FTSE Short now!

Two charts that show a good chance of a FTSE drop. New down trend? Let's see....

Flash Crash

http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2010/ss_economy0389_05_07.asp

As I suspected......Could big money be behind that mystery Flash Crash last Thurs?? They think so too.

Weekly Analysis - WE 14 May 10

Big swing in colours and sentiment this week. I'm a little suspicious of the massive down move last week in the US Indices. Was this panic selling, programme selling or a concerted move by a few major players to make huge sums of money? Most of the down move happened in a 20 min period and the SEC is investigating the 'drop and bounce'. I heard of many trades being cancelled by the exchanges on some 'errant' trades where 100 shares were bought of leading US large caps at a few cents etc. All very odd and subsequently trading this week may be very range bound until markets have time to digest all this news and action. The US non-farms were positive though. Leans me towards market manipulation. Citi-Bank did the same thing a few years ago on a lesser scale and got away with it!!

Another issue has been the rise of the recent Indices' trends on low volume and I read that due to the exchanges being less centralised there was a lack of liquidity to match trades on certain platforms last week. As there were only a few exchanges some years back, these huge drops were less likely as there was always big volumes in the exchanges. Now that more transactions are conducted off exchange and spread over more dealers etc there has been concern that the lack of volume and liquidity in the major exchanges could have actually precipitated the fall last week as there were no long trades being matched on the other side of the deals. Many people were trapped for the whole move and unable to get in or out; again, the US SEC is investigating...

Market Momentum

http://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum.php

Good site to check daily momentum/ % of US stocks above key MA's