30 Dec 2009
20 Dec 2009
Weekly Analysis - WE 26 Dec 09
Lt Sweet Crude Feb Fut – Monthly chart shows an IB last month right at the 38% Fib retrace from high to low combined with the SR level at 76.90ish. Boss chart shows an IB within the previous week's bear bar. The Bull bar has bounced off the descending TL from the 147 highs though and the 70.50 level. Still trapped below Mas. Worker shows a S Star off the underside of that TL and the same level as the last high on the up trend. Short below 73.41, T1 @ 72.00 and T2 @ 67.00. **
Nat Gas (NGF0)– B-Boss chart shows a bear IB(inverted hammer type) last month inside the previous doji. Boss chart broke above the 5.29 level and the 20MA from the monthly. If penetrated look for the break and then test of that break to go long with TP1 at 6.075 SR level and TP2 7.030. Long on Pullbacks
Gold – Monthly Bull Candle breaking old highs. Boss 3 weeks ago shows a Shooting Star with bear close. No fib /SR confluence up here other than historic high. 20 ema, daily now pointing south. This week shows a dragonfly doji off the 1111 level. Expect a test of the high after a TL break so would look to get long on bullish worker PA as we have had 2 pushes down from the top to the 50sma. Long on break of worker PA on Fri above 1120, T1 @ 1227 again. Short if the base of IB goes at 1093 with T1 @ 1063 and T2 @ 1033.
DowJones Mar Fut -(YMH0) – Monthly bull candle in Nov but into high to low 50% retrace. PA still going up but last week gave us a BEOB. Worker shows a Doji and with no significant TL break this is still buy on pullbacks. Expect a trend channel overshoot before any shorts as well. The daily 50sma had been solid support on the way up and I'd like to see that broken before any shorts too. Neutral.
FTSE Mar Fut (FFIH0)– Big Boss and boss are still in a bull trend but last week's close was another bear close on the 5100 level. Daily shows a spinning top – Neutral as we have no TL breaks and no bull action to get long either.
Cable – Big Boss shows a S Star, boss shows another S Star 3 weeks ago. PA is rangebound with the worker showing a spinning top/doji as well. If gold bulls then usd will fall and this will go up but with no action either way there are better pairs out there to trade. Neutral.
Gbpyen. - B Boss is in a downtrend. Recent action looks like a longer TF bear flag. Rule of 4 not in effect on B Boss yet so short below last low at 138.76. Boss shows a bull IB last week. A break above 147.00 would be bullish as it would confirm a 2nd HL from the hammer a few weeks ago. Long above 147.00 as not interested short into a triple bottom.
Gbpchf – B Boss bear IB in Nov. Weekly bull candle off a worker rising TL but into major downtrend line. Poss LH above falling TL on boss but would need a break of 1.6686 to confirm that. PA has held above that falling TL and the worker 20ema has provided support too. Long above 1.7033 counter trend and with trend would be short below 1.6760.
Eurusd – B Boss bull candle that bounced off the 78% Fib retrace from H to Low. Boss shows a another bear candle that is on the 20ema and below the last low of the uptrend. We have broken the rising TL too, but I'd still expect a HH or LH test before a trend change as the rise has been so strong. Boss has had 3 major downtrend candles now so would expect some sort of retrace possibly? Worker shows a doji so there could be a retrace but after such a major strong TL break I would like to see a test of the old extreme before getting short again. Look for bull action back into old trend or short PA to continue without a test.
Audusd – Monthly still in Up trend but bounced off the 261% Fib projection from the low to the first up swing from the lows. Boss looks toppy with a shooting star 2 week's ago within the previous week's body. Last week shows a bear bar that bounced off the lows and boss 20ema. Worker shows a shooting star but only off the 20ema which is not a chance to long but an offer to close up the stops. Short stops above the SR at 0.9020
Usdchf – Double bottom is in as we have 3 bull candles, last weeks breaking the last high of the downtrend and Boss 20ema. Wait for a pullback to the broken SR level at 1.0340 and look for PA to get LONG. This also needs a good test after such a strong downtrend.
Usdcad – B Boss Hammer still the controlling candle from Oct. Boss bear legs are getting much shorter with less momentum. Last pushes down have been weak and last week shows a bull spinning top at the 61% retrace from Low to high. Long only above 1.0700 as last week.
Usdyen – B Boss gives a BUEB off the 86.50 SR level and looks like a major double bottom. Boss shows BUOB. Worker on Fri had a huge stop run on the longs and then close out on the highs. Long above 91.00 **
Euryen – Big Boss still in uptrend but in middle of charts range. Boss still rangebound; Last week shows bear hammer. I guess this would follow usdyen so side with long back to top of range at 137.92 level. Break of that could see 147.35. Bear break of 126.68 could target lows again at 111.10! Long above hammer at 131.00 with T1 @ top of range at 137.00. **
Eurgbp – Big Boss bull body IB last month. 3rd Boss bear close but still within the candle from 2 weeks ago but not breaking the lows of the hammer 5 week' ago. Still in major uptrend so look for PA to get long back with underlying trend. Poss bottom forming if we get a close above IB at .8924 . Neutral this week.
Eurnzd – Big Boss shows a Nov bull candle but it looks like a bear flag in a longer term down move. Bear break of IB on the Boss chart to the small rising TL on the daily 2 weeks ago. Worker in BarbWire below the worker 50sma. Wait for bull PASR to get long above 2.036. **
Gbpcad – B Boss still scream down. Boss bond-hammer in free space with this week giving a doji IB. Worker shows a BUOB off minor SR leve at 1.7072. Neutral.
Nzdusd – Monthly Shooter still in play. Worker shows an bear IB inside the candle of 3 weeks ago. Short below 0.7020 which is below the Boss 20 ema. Look for short PASR near the down TL for possible short.
Audyen – B Boss bear IB last month. Boss is testing the broken UP TL from underneath and last week bear closed below that TL. Boss shows a bond shooter and poss HL but after a TL break I'm happy to short below 80.70, TP1 at 78.82 and TP2 75.81. but also long above 80.75 if bond hammer activates.
EurCad – Mas all flat on Monthly and boss poss dbl top bear flag. Rangebound but worker still below dbl top bear flag. Wait for market to show hand. Boss gave us bear close last week but came off lows. Neutral.
GbpAud – Monthly hammer on trend channel overshoot low after 2 pushes down. Boss hammer of after 3 pushes down, but with no significant TL break this is still short only on pullbacks. Long above hammer 1.8554.
CadJpy – Monthly bull candle with boss bull candle too. Could be a test of the underside of the broken TL. Await resolution on the worker with decent PA before anything. Worker on Fri shows a BUOB off the Boss 50sma as with other Yen pairs. Long above 85.28 with T1 @ 86.00 and t2 @ 91.00.
NzdJpy - Monthly Shooter – Boss hanging man IB again within previous 2 weeks. Worker hammer so Long above 64.55 T1 @ 66.16 and T2 @ 69.56.
AudNzd – Boss bear candle off the major SR at 1.2455 level and with the rising MA's. Long above worker BUOB at 1.2541.
Nat Gas (NGF0)– B-Boss chart shows a bear IB(inverted hammer type) last month inside the previous doji. Boss chart broke above the 5.29 level and the 20MA from the monthly. If penetrated look for the break and then test of that break to go long with TP1 at 6.075 SR level and TP2 7.030. Long on Pullbacks
Gold – Monthly Bull Candle breaking old highs. Boss 3 weeks ago shows a Shooting Star with bear close. No fib /SR confluence up here other than historic high. 20 ema, daily now pointing south. This week shows a dragonfly doji off the 1111 level. Expect a test of the high after a TL break so would look to get long on bullish worker PA as we have had 2 pushes down from the top to the 50sma. Long on break of worker PA on Fri above 1120, T1 @ 1227 again. Short if the base of IB goes at 1093 with T1 @ 1063 and T2 @ 1033.
DowJones Mar Fut -(YMH0) – Monthly bull candle in Nov but into high to low 50% retrace. PA still going up but last week gave us a BEOB. Worker shows a Doji and with no significant TL break this is still buy on pullbacks. Expect a trend channel overshoot before any shorts as well. The daily 50sma had been solid support on the way up and I'd like to see that broken before any shorts too. Neutral.
FTSE Mar Fut (FFIH0)– Big Boss and boss are still in a bull trend but last week's close was another bear close on the 5100 level. Daily shows a spinning top – Neutral as we have no TL breaks and no bull action to get long either.
Cable – Big Boss shows a S Star, boss shows another S Star 3 weeks ago. PA is rangebound with the worker showing a spinning top/doji as well. If gold bulls then usd will fall and this will go up but with no action either way there are better pairs out there to trade. Neutral.
Gbpyen. - B Boss is in a downtrend. Recent action looks like a longer TF bear flag. Rule of 4 not in effect on B Boss yet so short below last low at 138.76. Boss shows a bull IB last week. A break above 147.00 would be bullish as it would confirm a 2nd HL from the hammer a few weeks ago. Long above 147.00 as not interested short into a triple bottom.
Gbpchf – B Boss bear IB in Nov. Weekly bull candle off a worker rising TL but into major downtrend line. Poss LH above falling TL on boss but would need a break of 1.6686 to confirm that. PA has held above that falling TL and the worker 20ema has provided support too. Long above 1.7033 counter trend and with trend would be short below 1.6760.
Eurusd – B Boss bull candle that bounced off the 78% Fib retrace from H to Low. Boss shows a another bear candle that is on the 20ema and below the last low of the uptrend. We have broken the rising TL too, but I'd still expect a HH or LH test before a trend change as the rise has been so strong. Boss has had 3 major downtrend candles now so would expect some sort of retrace possibly? Worker shows a doji so there could be a retrace but after such a major strong TL break I would like to see a test of the old extreme before getting short again. Look for bull action back into old trend or short PA to continue without a test.
Audusd – Monthly still in Up trend but bounced off the 261% Fib projection from the low to the first up swing from the lows. Boss looks toppy with a shooting star 2 week's ago within the previous week's body. Last week shows a bear bar that bounced off the lows and boss 20ema. Worker shows a shooting star but only off the 20ema which is not a chance to long but an offer to close up the stops. Short stops above the SR at 0.9020
Usdchf – Double bottom is in as we have 3 bull candles, last weeks breaking the last high of the downtrend and Boss 20ema. Wait for a pullback to the broken SR level at 1.0340 and look for PA to get LONG. This also needs a good test after such a strong downtrend.
Usdcad – B Boss Hammer still the controlling candle from Oct. Boss bear legs are getting much shorter with less momentum. Last pushes down have been weak and last week shows a bull spinning top at the 61% retrace from Low to high. Long only above 1.0700 as last week.
Usdyen – B Boss gives a BUEB off the 86.50 SR level and looks like a major double bottom. Boss shows BUOB. Worker on Fri had a huge stop run on the longs and then close out on the highs. Long above 91.00 **
Euryen – Big Boss still in uptrend but in middle of charts range. Boss still rangebound; Last week shows bear hammer. I guess this would follow usdyen so side with long back to top of range at 137.92 level. Break of that could see 147.35. Bear break of 126.68 could target lows again at 111.10! Long above hammer at 131.00 with T1 @ top of range at 137.00. **
Eurgbp – Big Boss bull body IB last month. 3rd Boss bear close but still within the candle from 2 weeks ago but not breaking the lows of the hammer 5 week' ago. Still in major uptrend so look for PA to get long back with underlying trend. Poss bottom forming if we get a close above IB at .8924 . Neutral this week.
Eurnzd – Big Boss shows a Nov bull candle but it looks like a bear flag in a longer term down move. Bear break of IB on the Boss chart to the small rising TL on the daily 2 weeks ago. Worker in BarbWire below the worker 50sma. Wait for bull PASR to get long above 2.036. **
Gbpcad – B Boss still scream down. Boss bond-hammer in free space with this week giving a doji IB. Worker shows a BUOB off minor SR leve at 1.7072. Neutral.
Nzdusd – Monthly Shooter still in play. Worker shows an bear IB inside the candle of 3 weeks ago. Short below 0.7020 which is below the Boss 20 ema. Look for short PASR near the down TL for possible short.
Audyen – B Boss bear IB last month. Boss is testing the broken UP TL from underneath and last week bear closed below that TL. Boss shows a bond shooter and poss HL but after a TL break I'm happy to short below 80.70, TP1 at 78.82 and TP2 75.81. but also long above 80.75 if bond hammer activates.
EurCad – Mas all flat on Monthly and boss poss dbl top bear flag. Rangebound but worker still below dbl top bear flag. Wait for market to show hand. Boss gave us bear close last week but came off lows. Neutral.
GbpAud – Monthly hammer on trend channel overshoot low after 2 pushes down. Boss hammer of after 3 pushes down, but with no significant TL break this is still short only on pullbacks. Long above hammer 1.8554.
CadJpy – Monthly bull candle with boss bull candle too. Could be a test of the underside of the broken TL. Await resolution on the worker with decent PA before anything. Worker on Fri shows a BUOB off the Boss 50sma as with other Yen pairs. Long above 85.28 with T1 @ 86.00 and t2 @ 91.00.
NzdJpy - Monthly Shooter – Boss hanging man IB again within previous 2 weeks. Worker hammer so Long above 64.55 T1 @ 66.16 and T2 @ 69.56.
AudNzd – Boss bear candle off the major SR at 1.2455 level and with the rising MA's. Long above worker BUOB at 1.2541.
13 Dec 2009
Weekly Analysis - WE 20 Dec 09
Lt Sweet Crude Jan Fut – Monthly chart shows an IB last month right at the 38% Fib retrace from high to low combined with the SR level at 76.90ish. Boss chart shows 7 dojis in a row and last week broke free to the downside at the junctre of the major down TL. Short only with targets of 67.00 and 59.90. Short only BUT expect a restest of the trend extreme after such a strong TL being broken.
Nat Gas – B-Boss chart shows a bear IB(inverted hammer type) last month inside the previous doji. Boss chart shows a bull candle-body IB but the wick did extend higher. A break of the monthly 20ema would be bullish and the SR level at 5.29. If penetrated look for the break and then test of that break to go long with TP at 6.075 SR level and TP2 7.030. Long above 5.29.
Gold – Monthly Bull Candle breaking old highs. Boss 2 weeks ago shows a Shooting Star with bear close. No fib /SR confluence up here other than historic high. 20 ema, daily now pointing south. Short below 1140 but wait for a retest of break for better RR ratio. Next target 1063 minor and 1033 major.
DowJones Dec Fut -(YMZ9) – Monthly bull candle in Nov but into high to low 50% retrace. PA still rising so long only until we get a wedge channel overshoot or other bearish action such as a strong TL break. PA now getting smaller and narrower – could be a strong break soon. With all the stops expected above the PA I'd expect a spike to activate the shorts then a short squeeze back up to new highs!
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Big Boss and boss are still in a bull trend but last week's close was another doji on the 5300 level. Daily shows a Shooting Star and H2 short– short below the TL, Shooting Star and 20 ema at 5240.
Cable – Big Boss shows a S Star, boss shows another S Star 2 weeks ago short only below last low at 1.6200. Looks like a rounded top reversal. Daily chart shows 3 spinning tops in a row on the 1.6262 SR level as base of range. Wait for a worker H2/H3 before short.
Gbpyen. - B Boss is in a downtrend. Recent action looks like a longer TF bear flag. Rule of 4 not in effect on B Boss yet so short below last low at 138.76. Worker rejected the SR level at 149.00 as predicted. Last week gives a bear IB but worker looks like a dbl bottom and test. Long above the SR and IB at 149.00 and short below 140.62 back with major underlying trend.
Gbpchf – B Boss bear IB in Nov. Weekly bull candle off a worker rising TL but into major downtrend line. Limit Sell orders at 1.6900 to go short with major trend with tgts of 1.6400 and 1.6300 below that.
Eurusd – B Boss bull candle that bounced off the 78% Fib retrace from H to Low. Boss shows a another bear candle that is on the 20ema and below the last low of the uptrend. We have broken the rising TL too, but I'd expect a HH or LH test before a trend change as the rise has been so strong. Wait for a H2 near the ema for example before any shorts or look for long action at 1.4528 to trade with the trend into that HH or LH test of the old trend extreme.
Audusd – Monthly still in Up trend but bounced off the 261% Fib projection from the low to the first up swing from the lows. Boss looks toppy with a shooting star last week within the previous week's body. Last week shows a doji closing where it opened. Worker shows a poss broken TL test and IB so short below 0.9085, tgts of 0.8730 and 0.8362.
Usdchf – Double bottom could be in as we have 2 bull candles, last weeks breaking the last high of the downtrend BUT still below the 20ema. Wait for a pullback to the broken SR level at 1.0250 and look for PA to get LONG. This also needs a good test after such a strong downtrend.
Usdcad – B Boss Hammer still the controlling candle from Oct. Boss bear legs are getting much shorter with less momentum. Last pushes down have been weak and last week shows a bull spinning top at the 61% retrace from Low to high. Long only above 1.0700.
Usdyen – B Boss gives a BUEB off the 86.50 SR level and looks like a major double bottom. Boss shows a bear IB after a worker test of the broken down TL. Trend is still down and with no HH/HLs to base new trend on, NEUTRAL, but siding with a long break above the IB at 91.25 above the 20ema and SR level.
Euryen – Big Boss still in uptrend but in middle of charts range. Boss still rangebound; Last week shows bear IB. I guess this would follow usdyen so side with long back to top of range at 137.92 level. Break of that could see 147.35. Bear break of 126.68 could target lows again at 111.10! Neutral this week.
Eurgbp – Big Boss bull body IB last month. 2nd Boss bear close but still within the candle from 2 weeks ago. Still in major uptrend so look for PA to get long back with underlying trend at the rising TL circa 0.8950 ish .
Eurnzd – Big Boss shows a Nov bull candle but it looks like a bear flag in a longer term down move. Bear break of IB on the Boss chart to the small rising TL on the daily. Long above 2.036 targets of 2.1085 and above. Break of small rising TL would be back with major down trend, initial targets of 1.9850. Wait for PA to show the way.
Gbpcad – B Boss still scream down. Boss bond-hammer in free space. Worker shows a BUOB off minor SR leve at 1.7072. Long above 1.7320.
Nzdusd – Monthly Shooter still in play. Worker shows an IB inside the candle of 2 weeks ago. Short below 0.7020.
Audyen – B Boss bear IB last month. Boss is testing the broken UP TL from underneath and last week bear closed below that TL. Daily shows a bond shooter but after a TL break I'm happy to short below 80.70, TP1 at 78.82 and TP2 75.81.
EurCad – Mas all flat on Monthly and boss poss dbl top bear flag. Rangebound but worker still below dbl top bear flag. Wait for market to show hand. Boss gave us bear close last week but came off lows. Neutral.
GbpAud – Monthly hammer on trend channel overshoot low after 2 pushes down. Boss hammer of after 3 pushes down, but with no significant TL break this is still short only on pullbacks. Long above hammer 1.8554.
CadJpy – Monthly bull candle with boss bull candle too. Could be a test of the underside of the broken TL. Await resolution on the worker with decent PA before anything. This pair is going down not up. Or could be in a channel, short below 83.74, TP1 at 72.35.
NzdJpy - Monthly Shooter – Boss hanging man. Worker Shooter of sorts so short below Mas at 64.00
Nat Gas – B-Boss chart shows a bear IB(inverted hammer type) last month inside the previous doji. Boss chart shows a bull candle-body IB but the wick did extend higher. A break of the monthly 20ema would be bullish and the SR level at 5.29. If penetrated look for the break and then test of that break to go long with TP at 6.075 SR level and TP2 7.030. Long above 5.29.
Gold – Monthly Bull Candle breaking old highs. Boss 2 weeks ago shows a Shooting Star with bear close. No fib /SR confluence up here other than historic high. 20 ema, daily now pointing south. Short below 1140 but wait for a retest of break for better RR ratio. Next target 1063 minor and 1033 major.
DowJones Dec Fut -(YMZ9) – Monthly bull candle in Nov but into high to low 50% retrace. PA still rising so long only until we get a wedge channel overshoot or other bearish action such as a strong TL break. PA now getting smaller and narrower – could be a strong break soon. With all the stops expected above the PA I'd expect a spike to activate the shorts then a short squeeze back up to new highs!
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Big Boss and boss are still in a bull trend but last week's close was another doji on the 5300 level. Daily shows a Shooting Star and H2 short– short below the TL, Shooting Star and 20 ema at 5240.
Cable – Big Boss shows a S Star, boss shows another S Star 2 weeks ago short only below last low at 1.6200. Looks like a rounded top reversal. Daily chart shows 3 spinning tops in a row on the 1.6262 SR level as base of range. Wait for a worker H2/H3 before short.
Gbpyen. - B Boss is in a downtrend. Recent action looks like a longer TF bear flag. Rule of 4 not in effect on B Boss yet so short below last low at 138.76. Worker rejected the SR level at 149.00 as predicted. Last week gives a bear IB but worker looks like a dbl bottom and test. Long above the SR and IB at 149.00 and short below 140.62 back with major underlying trend.
Gbpchf – B Boss bear IB in Nov. Weekly bull candle off a worker rising TL but into major downtrend line. Limit Sell orders at 1.6900 to go short with major trend with tgts of 1.6400 and 1.6300 below that.
Eurusd – B Boss bull candle that bounced off the 78% Fib retrace from H to Low. Boss shows a another bear candle that is on the 20ema and below the last low of the uptrend. We have broken the rising TL too, but I'd expect a HH or LH test before a trend change as the rise has been so strong. Wait for a H2 near the ema for example before any shorts or look for long action at 1.4528 to trade with the trend into that HH or LH test of the old trend extreme.
Audusd – Monthly still in Up trend but bounced off the 261% Fib projection from the low to the first up swing from the lows. Boss looks toppy with a shooting star last week within the previous week's body. Last week shows a doji closing where it opened. Worker shows a poss broken TL test and IB so short below 0.9085, tgts of 0.8730 and 0.8362.
Usdchf – Double bottom could be in as we have 2 bull candles, last weeks breaking the last high of the downtrend BUT still below the 20ema. Wait for a pullback to the broken SR level at 1.0250 and look for PA to get LONG. This also needs a good test after such a strong downtrend.
Usdcad – B Boss Hammer still the controlling candle from Oct. Boss bear legs are getting much shorter with less momentum. Last pushes down have been weak and last week shows a bull spinning top at the 61% retrace from Low to high. Long only above 1.0700.
Usdyen – B Boss gives a BUEB off the 86.50 SR level and looks like a major double bottom. Boss shows a bear IB after a worker test of the broken down TL. Trend is still down and with no HH/HLs to base new trend on, NEUTRAL, but siding with a long break above the IB at 91.25 above the 20ema and SR level.
Euryen – Big Boss still in uptrend but in middle of charts range. Boss still rangebound; Last week shows bear IB. I guess this would follow usdyen so side with long back to top of range at 137.92 level. Break of that could see 147.35. Bear break of 126.68 could target lows again at 111.10! Neutral this week.
Eurgbp – Big Boss bull body IB last month. 2nd Boss bear close but still within the candle from 2 weeks ago. Still in major uptrend so look for PA to get long back with underlying trend at the rising TL circa 0.8950 ish .
Eurnzd – Big Boss shows a Nov bull candle but it looks like a bear flag in a longer term down move. Bear break of IB on the Boss chart to the small rising TL on the daily. Long above 2.036 targets of 2.1085 and above. Break of small rising TL would be back with major down trend, initial targets of 1.9850. Wait for PA to show the way.
Gbpcad – B Boss still scream down. Boss bond-hammer in free space. Worker shows a BUOB off minor SR leve at 1.7072. Long above 1.7320.
Nzdusd – Monthly Shooter still in play. Worker shows an IB inside the candle of 2 weeks ago. Short below 0.7020.
Audyen – B Boss bear IB last month. Boss is testing the broken UP TL from underneath and last week bear closed below that TL. Daily shows a bond shooter but after a TL break I'm happy to short below 80.70, TP1 at 78.82 and TP2 75.81.
EurCad – Mas all flat on Monthly and boss poss dbl top bear flag. Rangebound but worker still below dbl top bear flag. Wait for market to show hand. Boss gave us bear close last week but came off lows. Neutral.
GbpAud – Monthly hammer on trend channel overshoot low after 2 pushes down. Boss hammer of after 3 pushes down, but with no significant TL break this is still short only on pullbacks. Long above hammer 1.8554.
CadJpy – Monthly bull candle with boss bull candle too. Could be a test of the underside of the broken TL. Await resolution on the worker with decent PA before anything. This pair is going down not up. Or could be in a channel, short below 83.74, TP1 at 72.35.
NzdJpy - Monthly Shooter – Boss hanging man. Worker Shooter of sorts so short below Mas at 64.00
10 Dec 2009
EurNzd long
Had a TL break on strong momentum and 3rd test of rising TL (after 'golden ma cross too)As a lot of systems use MA crossovers, you often see price rises then the MAs cross and PA falls away - could this be traders 'fading' those going long on crossovers? It happens often. Still, I like this pair long now.
Failed Short
Too eager to short this one on a weak BEEB. Not strictly a BEEB and broke the plan here as I fouled up the risk element and had 3% at risk and not 2%. Trade the plan!!!
7 Dec 2009
Long Gold on trend pullback.
Good hammer off the 20ema after a pull back and TL break. Expect at least a test of the trend's extreme back up at the high.
Edit - OK this was a pause bar and not an entry hammer- hammers off the 20ema don't work. Only take at SR levels with good confluence. This was a classic trapped traders' fakout. Looking for 2 pushes down now but would still expect a test of that high due to the strong momentum of the up move previosuly
Nat Gas update
Nat Gas worker is trading into the Boss BEEB. I'll wait for a HH before any longs here.
Weekly Analysis - WE 11 Dec 09
Lt Sweet Crude Dec Fut – Monthly chart shows an IB last month right at the 38% Fib retrace from high to low combined with the SR level at 76.90ish. Boss chart shows 7 dojis in a row but above the major down trend line. Looks like price being held by the B-Boss 50sma. Could be a bull flag on the longer Tfs so wait for a breakout and a HL or LH etc. Neutral.
Nat Gas – B-Boss chart shows a bear IB(inverted hammer type) last month inside the previous doji. Boss chart on line chart looks like a H&S pattern and recent minor up TL broken. Short below 4.413 SR and long above the 5.29 SR and last high. Worker on Fri shows a BUOB but wait for a HL before any longs.
Gold – Monthly Bull Candle breaking old highs. Boss shows a Shooting Star with bear close. No fib /SR confluence up here other than historic high. Short below 1140 but wait for a retest of break for better RR ratio.
DowJones Dec Fut -(YMZ9) – Monthly bull candle in Nov but into high to low 50% retrace. PA still rising so long only until we get a wedge channel overshoot or other bearish action such as a strong TL break.
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Big Bossand boss are still in a bull trend but last week's close was another spinning top on the 5300 level. Worker shows a 3 day expanding triangle with a BEOB and shooting star – short below the TL and 20 ema at 5252.
Cable – Big Boss shows a S Star, boss shows another S Star so short only below last low at 1.6200.
Gbpyen. - B Boss is in a downtrend. Recent action looks like a longer TF bear flag. Rule of 4 not in effect on B Boss yet so short below last low at 138.76. Look out for worker rejecting the SR level at 149.00.
Gbpchf – B Boss bear IB in Nov. Weekly shooting star at top of bear flag and 20/50 clustered MAs. Boss is in a clear downtrend. Short below 1.6750.
Eurusd – B Boss bull candle that bounced off the 78% Fib retrace from H to Low. Boss shows a bear candle. Short below 1.4780 after double top on worker.
Audusd – Monthly still in Up trend but bounced off the 261% Fib projection from the low to the first up swing from the lows. Boss looks toppy with a shooting star last week within the previous week's body. Worker shows small shooting star too with high bouncing off the underside of the broken up TL. Short below .9097.
Usdchf – Poss double bottom forming on B Boss chart, but would like to see a significant HL before long and a close above the SR at 1.0250 before long – Neutral.
Usdcad – B Boss Hammer still the controlling candle from Oct. Boss IB (bull) was broken low but could be a fakeout. PA Still under 20ema so If high of last 2 weeks ago is broken then we have a confirmed HL. Close above 1.0780 would be bullish.
USDYEN – B Boss gives a BUEB off the 86.50 SR level and looks like a major double bottom. Boss shows a large bull candle on strong momentum breaking the recent minor down TL. Will wait for a retrace here to test the TL break but looking for longs only now. NFP effected this by very strong numbers which could cause the Feds to hike USD rates. Could be $ +ve but Eq -ve!
Euryen – Big Boss still in uptrend but in middle of charts range. Boss still rangebound; Bull close last week. On good SR level so if 131.70 goes – short but if 137.92 is broken and tested long.
Eurgbp – Big Boss bull body IB last month. Boss bear close but still within the candle from previous week. Still above major UP TL so but worker gives a BEEB so could target the major UP TL. Wait for that battle to be won before acting and look for +ve PA at that TL to get long.
Eurnzd – Big Boss shows a Nov bull candle but it looks like a bear flag in a longer term down move. Worker shows an IB after the recent down trendline break so I'd expect a test of that BO with a HL or LL. Wait for confirmation but siding with long. PA retraced back to 61% from recent swing low to high so long above 2.090.
Gbpcad – B Boss still scream down. Big Boss bear IB. Worker gapped down last week into a spinning top. Worker in the 20/50 ma trap. Neutral.
Nzdusd – Monthly Shooter still in play. Worker shows an IB/S Star candle so short below 0.7100.
Audyen – B Boss bear IB last month. Boss is testing the broken UP TL from underneath but worker had 5 bull candle in a row. Bulls will not give up easy so wait for a test and -ve PA before considering any shorts.
EurCad – Mas all flat on Monthly and boss poss dbl top bear flag. Rangebound but worker still below dbl top bear flag. Wait for market to show hand. Boss gave us an IB last week. Wait for IB break.
GbpAud – Monthly hammer on trend channel overshoot low after 2 pushes down. Boss hammer of sorts but with no significant TL break this is still short only on pullbacks.
CadJpy – Monthly bull candle with boss bull candle too. Could be a test of the underside of the broken TL. Await resolution on the worker with decent PA before anything. Neutral.
NzdJpy - Monthly Shooter – Boss bull candle into the B Boss 20ema. Worker TL broken and tested. Worker on down TL so expect a bear day on Mon unless PA punches through and follows other yen pairs up with usdyen. Neutral
Nat Gas – B-Boss chart shows a bear IB(inverted hammer type) last month inside the previous doji. Boss chart on line chart looks like a H&S pattern and recent minor up TL broken. Short below 4.413 SR and long above the 5.29 SR and last high. Worker on Fri shows a BUOB but wait for a HL before any longs.
Gold – Monthly Bull Candle breaking old highs. Boss shows a Shooting Star with bear close. No fib /SR confluence up here other than historic high. Short below 1140 but wait for a retest of break for better RR ratio.
DowJones Dec Fut -(YMZ9) – Monthly bull candle in Nov but into high to low 50% retrace. PA still rising so long only until we get a wedge channel overshoot or other bearish action such as a strong TL break.
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Big Bossand boss are still in a bull trend but last week's close was another spinning top on the 5300 level. Worker shows a 3 day expanding triangle with a BEOB and shooting star – short below the TL and 20 ema at 5252.
Cable – Big Boss shows a S Star, boss shows another S Star so short only below last low at 1.6200.
Gbpyen. - B Boss is in a downtrend. Recent action looks like a longer TF bear flag. Rule of 4 not in effect on B Boss yet so short below last low at 138.76. Look out for worker rejecting the SR level at 149.00.
Gbpchf – B Boss bear IB in Nov. Weekly shooting star at top of bear flag and 20/50 clustered MAs. Boss is in a clear downtrend. Short below 1.6750.
Eurusd – B Boss bull candle that bounced off the 78% Fib retrace from H to Low. Boss shows a bear candle. Short below 1.4780 after double top on worker.
Audusd – Monthly still in Up trend but bounced off the 261% Fib projection from the low to the first up swing from the lows. Boss looks toppy with a shooting star last week within the previous week's body. Worker shows small shooting star too with high bouncing off the underside of the broken up TL. Short below .9097.
Usdchf – Poss double bottom forming on B Boss chart, but would like to see a significant HL before long and a close above the SR at 1.0250 before long – Neutral.
Usdcad – B Boss Hammer still the controlling candle from Oct. Boss IB (bull) was broken low but could be a fakeout. PA Still under 20ema so If high of last 2 weeks ago is broken then we have a confirmed HL. Close above 1.0780 would be bullish.
USDYEN – B Boss gives a BUEB off the 86.50 SR level and looks like a major double bottom. Boss shows a large bull candle on strong momentum breaking the recent minor down TL. Will wait for a retrace here to test the TL break but looking for longs only now. NFP effected this by very strong numbers which could cause the Feds to hike USD rates. Could be $ +ve but Eq -ve!
Euryen – Big Boss still in uptrend but in middle of charts range. Boss still rangebound; Bull close last week. On good SR level so if 131.70 goes – short but if 137.92 is broken and tested long.
Eurgbp – Big Boss bull body IB last month. Boss bear close but still within the candle from previous week. Still above major UP TL so but worker gives a BEEB so could target the major UP TL. Wait for that battle to be won before acting and look for +ve PA at that TL to get long.
Eurnzd – Big Boss shows a Nov bull candle but it looks like a bear flag in a longer term down move. Worker shows an IB after the recent down trendline break so I'd expect a test of that BO with a HL or LL. Wait for confirmation but siding with long. PA retraced back to 61% from recent swing low to high so long above 2.090.
Gbpcad – B Boss still scream down. Big Boss bear IB. Worker gapped down last week into a spinning top. Worker in the 20/50 ma trap. Neutral.
Nzdusd – Monthly Shooter still in play. Worker shows an IB/S Star candle so short below 0.7100.
Audyen – B Boss bear IB last month. Boss is testing the broken UP TL from underneath but worker had 5 bull candle in a row. Bulls will not give up easy so wait for a test and -ve PA before considering any shorts.
EurCad – Mas all flat on Monthly and boss poss dbl top bear flag. Rangebound but worker still below dbl top bear flag. Wait for market to show hand. Boss gave us an IB last week. Wait for IB break.
GbpAud – Monthly hammer on trend channel overshoot low after 2 pushes down. Boss hammer of sorts but with no significant TL break this is still short only on pullbacks.
CadJpy – Monthly bull candle with boss bull candle too. Could be a test of the underside of the broken TL. Await resolution on the worker with decent PA before anything. Neutral.
NzdJpy - Monthly Shooter – Boss bull candle into the B Boss 20ema. Worker TL broken and tested. Worker on down TL so expect a bear day on Mon unless PA punches through and follows other yen pairs up with usdyen. Neutral
29 Nov 2009
Weekly Analysis - WE 4 Dec 09
Lt Sweet Crude Dec Fut – Long only on pullbacks – Boss shows a penetration of the large up TL but the close is above it. Worker has a classic, deep hammer. Long above 76.50 BUT there are 3 SR levels above that so RR Ratio is questionable.
Nat Gas – Boss gives us a HL as the weekly close was a bull bar above last weeks spining top. Long only above the monthly 20ema at 5.45.
Gold – Monthly Bull Candle breaking old highs. 4th Boss bull trend candle after BO test 4 weeks' ago. Wary of the parabolic rise and I would imagine a pullback soon. Worker gives a hanging man candle so warning of possible lower prices in the short term. Neutral.
DowJones Sep Fut -(YMZ9) – Trend is still up. Boss gives a bear spinning top candle but still within the wedge TLs. Worker shows a hammer of sorts so long above 10380. You should take every with trend opportunity offered.
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Boss is still in a bull trend but last week's close was bearish candle still on the 5300 level. Worker looks twitchy with a large bear then bull candle off the 5099 SR level. Long above 5300 but only short once we have had a TL break and retest.
Cable – Boss shows a spinning top doji, still range bound so NEUTRAL unitl we have a range BO.
Gbpyen. - Boss still in major uptrend but minor down move. Worker has broken out of pennant to downside and is below Mas. Worker gives a deep hammer so long above 143.70 as poss double bottom test and test of BO from Jan 09.
Gbpchf – Boss still in UP minor trend in larger down trend. Worker gives hammer but RR is crap to the descending TL from the double top high. Wedge pattern before still looks like a bear flag so I'm only looking to short this pair below 1.6490.
Eurusd – Boss shows a BUEB. The PA bounced right of the 76% retrace last week so this is the last major Fib level of any relevance. Worker PA bounced off the daily 50sma so long only still above the 1.5030 level.
Audusd – Monthly still in Up trend but if this week goes lower we will have a text book Shooting Star. Boss shows bear candle. Worker shows a bear close under the broken up TL. Penetrated the 50sma but not the last low of up trend. Short below 0.8898
Usdchf – Poss bottom double bottom forming but would like to see a significant HL before long and a close above the SR at 1.0250 before long – Neutral.
Usdcad – Boss IB Bear hanging man candle PA stuck at the 1.0684 SR level so until it breaks that with a good bull close above 1.07814 Neutral.
USDYEN – Boss still in major down trend. No TL breaks yet so short only. Worker yet to show a HL so still short only. Poss bottom but who knows?
Euryen – Boss still rangebound; Bear close last week. Worker gives a text book hammer off SR and Fib. Long only above 130.30, short below 126.68 SR level.
Eurgbp – Boss still bullish off the major and minor up TL's. Worker gives a shooting star off the 0.9086 SR. Excellent Low 3 set up so short below 0.9055
Eurnzd – Long only here as we have a confirmed TL break, test and a higher low. Long above the 2.1253 level as the last major H of the downtrend.
Gbpcad – Boss still in major down move but we had a deep rejection of 1.6290 level and trapped below the SR at 1.7711. Recent worker trend is up with a 2nd HL so long above 1.7711 short below 1.7350.
Nzdusd – Monthly Shooter still in play with low broken. Short below 0.7000 level. Long above 0.7156 level on worker Hammer and deep double bottom test. Should now test old trends extreme at 0.7460.
Audyen – Closed below the 82.00 level and last high of UP Trend test. Confirmed LH on boss with BEEB. Short only but worker gives a hammer. With thr major TL broke I'm waiting for a test of the old trend extreme then short prob at 82.00 level.
EurCad – Mas all flat on Monthly and boss poss dbl top bear flag. Rangebound but worker still below dbl top bear flag. Wait for market to show hand. Boss gave us an IB last week but looks like a failed Bull BO. Wait for good close above Mas before action.
GbpAud – Monthly hammer on trend channel overshoot low after 2 pushes down. Boss BUOB. Worker shows a HL so long only above 1.8500
CadJpy – Boss bear close just below SR at 81.91. Broke last low of up trend but worker gives a perfect hammer, so long above 81.91 to next SR at 84.49.
NzdJpy - Monthly Shooter – Boss has 3 major TL breaks. Worker give a hammer off the 60.00 SR level but after TL breaks NEUTRAL.
Nat Gas – Boss gives us a HL as the weekly close was a bull bar above last weeks spining top. Long only above the monthly 20ema at 5.45.
Gold – Monthly Bull Candle breaking old highs. 4th Boss bull trend candle after BO test 4 weeks' ago. Wary of the parabolic rise and I would imagine a pullback soon. Worker gives a hanging man candle so warning of possible lower prices in the short term. Neutral.
DowJones Sep Fut -(YMZ9) – Trend is still up. Boss gives a bear spinning top candle but still within the wedge TLs. Worker shows a hammer of sorts so long above 10380. You should take every with trend opportunity offered.
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Boss is still in a bull trend but last week's close was bearish candle still on the 5300 level. Worker looks twitchy with a large bear then bull candle off the 5099 SR level. Long above 5300 but only short once we have had a TL break and retest.
Cable – Boss shows a spinning top doji, still range bound so NEUTRAL unitl we have a range BO.
Gbpyen. - Boss still in major uptrend but minor down move. Worker has broken out of pennant to downside and is below Mas. Worker gives a deep hammer so long above 143.70 as poss double bottom test and test of BO from Jan 09.
Gbpchf – Boss still in UP minor trend in larger down trend. Worker gives hammer but RR is crap to the descending TL from the double top high. Wedge pattern before still looks like a bear flag so I'm only looking to short this pair below 1.6490.
Eurusd – Boss shows a BUEB. The PA bounced right of the 76% retrace last week so this is the last major Fib level of any relevance. Worker PA bounced off the daily 50sma so long only still above the 1.5030 level.
Audusd – Monthly still in Up trend but if this week goes lower we will have a text book Shooting Star. Boss shows bear candle. Worker shows a bear close under the broken up TL. Penetrated the 50sma but not the last low of up trend. Short below 0.8898
Usdchf – Poss bottom double bottom forming but would like to see a significant HL before long and a close above the SR at 1.0250 before long – Neutral.
Usdcad – Boss IB Bear hanging man candle PA stuck at the 1.0684 SR level so until it breaks that with a good bull close above 1.07814 Neutral.
USDYEN – Boss still in major down trend. No TL breaks yet so short only. Worker yet to show a HL so still short only. Poss bottom but who knows?
Euryen – Boss still rangebound; Bear close last week. Worker gives a text book hammer off SR and Fib. Long only above 130.30, short below 126.68 SR level.
Eurgbp – Boss still bullish off the major and minor up TL's. Worker gives a shooting star off the 0.9086 SR. Excellent Low 3 set up so short below 0.9055
Eurnzd – Long only here as we have a confirmed TL break, test and a higher low. Long above the 2.1253 level as the last major H of the downtrend.
Gbpcad – Boss still in major down move but we had a deep rejection of 1.6290 level and trapped below the SR at 1.7711. Recent worker trend is up with a 2nd HL so long above 1.7711 short below 1.7350.
Nzdusd – Monthly Shooter still in play with low broken. Short below 0.7000 level. Long above 0.7156 level on worker Hammer and deep double bottom test. Should now test old trends extreme at 0.7460.
Audyen – Closed below the 82.00 level and last high of UP Trend test. Confirmed LH on boss with BEEB. Short only but worker gives a hammer. With thr major TL broke I'm waiting for a test of the old trend extreme then short prob at 82.00 level.
EurCad – Mas all flat on Monthly and boss poss dbl top bear flag. Rangebound but worker still below dbl top bear flag. Wait for market to show hand. Boss gave us an IB last week but looks like a failed Bull BO. Wait for good close above Mas before action.
GbpAud – Monthly hammer on trend channel overshoot low after 2 pushes down. Boss BUOB. Worker shows a HL so long only above 1.8500
CadJpy – Boss bear close just below SR at 81.91. Broke last low of up trend but worker gives a perfect hammer, so long above 81.91 to next SR at 84.49.
NzdJpy - Monthly Shooter – Boss has 3 major TL breaks. Worker give a hammer off the 60.00 SR level but after TL breaks NEUTRAL.
22 Nov 2009
Weekly Analysis - WE 29 Nov 09
Lt Sweet Crude Oct Fut – Long only on pullbacks – Boss shows inverted doji again and looks like a bull flag. Still above rising TL and monthly 50sma.
Nat Gas – Weekly gap up last week but ended in a bear Spinning top. Could be a LH from the last high. Wait for HL to establish before going Long.
Gold – Monthly Bull Candle breaking old highs. 3rd Boss bull trend candle after BO test 2 weeks' ago. Long Only.
DowJones Sep Fut -(YMZ9) – Weak boss close as a poss channel /wedge overshoot. Wait for confirmation then Short only below 10000 level.
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Boss is still in a bull trend but last week's close was bearish spinning top on the 5300 level. Worker gives a hammer and as Al Brooks said - “you should take every with trend entry offered.” So, long above 5315! Short below the boss 20ma and hammer base of 5215.
Cable – Boss shows a BEOB in a topping formation, short only below last low at 1.6500.
Gbpyen. - Boss still in major uptrend but minor down move. Worker has broken out of pennant to downside and is below Mas. Short only esp if last low at 145.70 is broken.
Gbpchf – Weekly shooting star at top of bear flag and 20/50 clustered MAs. Short below 1.6750.
Eurusd – Boss shows a BEEB. Short below 1.4780 after double top on worker.
Audusd – Monthly still in Up trend. Boss shows BEOB. Worker gives a hammer and as it's off the rising TL one should take the long above .9225. If TL goes there will be test of the break so wait for that test before short.
Usdchf – Poss bottom forming but would like to see a significant HL before long and a close above the SR at 1.0250 before long – Neutral.
Usdcad – Boss IB (bull). If high of last 2 weeks ago is broken then we have a confirmed HL. Close above 1.0780 would be bullish.
USDYEN – Boss still in major down trend. No TL breaks yet so short only. Worker yet to show a HL so still short only.
Euryen – Boss still rangebound; Bear close last week. On good SR level so if 131.70 goes – short only.
Eurgbp – Boss bullish close but still within the hanging man from previous week. Still above major UP TL so long only as market tested the recent BO high of the last minor down move last week and bounced off it.
Eurnzd – Long only here as we have a confirmed TL break, test and a higher low. Boss gives a BUOB and close above both worker MAs. Long.
Gbpcad – Boss IB. Worker Shooting Star in control still so short below 1.7586.
Nzdusd – Monthly Shooter still in play. Wait for break of the .7070 level to get short. Boss shows a BEOB and LH. She's coming back to Earth troops! Short only.
Audyen – Closed below the 82.00 level and last high of UP Trend test. Confirmed LH on boss with BEEB. Short only.
EurCad – Mas all flat on Monthly and boss poss dbl top bear flag. Rangebound but worker still below dbl top bear flag. Wait for market to show hand. Boss gave us an IB last week. Wait for IB break.
GbpAud – Monthly hammer on trend channel overshoot low after 2 pushes down. Boss BUOB. Worker shows a bull IB (bodies).
CadJpy – Monthly bear candle boss BEEB after monthly 20ema test and rejection of descending TL from highs. Short only below 81.91 level.
NzdJpy - Monthly Shooter – Boss BEEB. Worker TL broken and tested. Short only
Nat Gas – Weekly gap up last week but ended in a bear Spinning top. Could be a LH from the last high. Wait for HL to establish before going Long.
Gold – Monthly Bull Candle breaking old highs. 3rd Boss bull trend candle after BO test 2 weeks' ago. Long Only.
DowJones Sep Fut -(YMZ9) – Weak boss close as a poss channel /wedge overshoot. Wait for confirmation then Short only below 10000 level.
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Boss is still in a bull trend but last week's close was bearish spinning top on the 5300 level. Worker gives a hammer and as Al Brooks said - “you should take every with trend entry offered.” So, long above 5315! Short below the boss 20ma and hammer base of 5215.
Cable – Boss shows a BEOB in a topping formation, short only below last low at 1.6500.
Gbpyen. - Boss still in major uptrend but minor down move. Worker has broken out of pennant to downside and is below Mas. Short only esp if last low at 145.70 is broken.
Gbpchf – Weekly shooting star at top of bear flag and 20/50 clustered MAs. Short below 1.6750.
Eurusd – Boss shows a BEEB. Short below 1.4780 after double top on worker.
Audusd – Monthly still in Up trend. Boss shows BEOB. Worker gives a hammer and as it's off the rising TL one should take the long above .9225. If TL goes there will be test of the break so wait for that test before short.
Usdchf – Poss bottom forming but would like to see a significant HL before long and a close above the SR at 1.0250 before long – Neutral.
Usdcad – Boss IB (bull). If high of last 2 weeks ago is broken then we have a confirmed HL. Close above 1.0780 would be bullish.
USDYEN – Boss still in major down trend. No TL breaks yet so short only. Worker yet to show a HL so still short only.
Euryen – Boss still rangebound; Bear close last week. On good SR level so if 131.70 goes – short only.
Eurgbp – Boss bullish close but still within the hanging man from previous week. Still above major UP TL so long only as market tested the recent BO high of the last minor down move last week and bounced off it.
Eurnzd – Long only here as we have a confirmed TL break, test and a higher low. Boss gives a BUOB and close above both worker MAs. Long.
Gbpcad – Boss IB. Worker Shooting Star in control still so short below 1.7586.
Nzdusd – Monthly Shooter still in play. Wait for break of the .7070 level to get short. Boss shows a BEOB and LH. She's coming back to Earth troops! Short only.
Audyen – Closed below the 82.00 level and last high of UP Trend test. Confirmed LH on boss with BEEB. Short only.
EurCad – Mas all flat on Monthly and boss poss dbl top bear flag. Rangebound but worker still below dbl top bear flag. Wait for market to show hand. Boss gave us an IB last week. Wait for IB break.
GbpAud – Monthly hammer on trend channel overshoot low after 2 pushes down. Boss BUOB. Worker shows a bull IB (bodies).
CadJpy – Monthly bear candle boss BEEB after monthly 20ema test and rejection of descending TL from highs. Short only below 81.91 level.
NzdJpy - Monthly Shooter – Boss BEEB. Worker TL broken and tested. Short only
16 Nov 2009
Nat Gas setting up long?
This could be an excellent pairs trade with Oil - Long Gas, short Oil to close the divergence of price.
15 Nov 2009
Weekly Analysis - WE 22 Nov 09
Lt Sweet Crude Dec Fut – Long only on pullbacks – Boss shows inverted hammeragain, Closed above Mas and NO TL break yet so still long only.
Nat Gas – 4th Boss down trend bar and up TL break. Wait for a test of the BO level and poss retrace after the TL break back up to a HH or LH. Expected move after the major down trend line was breached on strong momentum so expecting a higher low test. Wait for HL to establish before going Long.
Gold (Spot)– Monthly Bull Candle breaking old highs. 2nd Boss bull trend candle after BO test 2 weeks' ago. Long Only.
DowJones Dec Fut -(YMZ9) – Monthly Doji high broken. Boss bull trend after the down TL break. After such a strong TL break there will be a retest of the BO poss back to 8944 level. Too bid for me; Worker shows a steep rising wedge with a pattern overshoot. Wait for confirmation then Short only below 10000 level.
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Boss trying a 2nd BO of the 5300 level. Poss double top here with worker showing 3 dojis. If the 5300 level is rejected expect a test of the last BO level back at 4477. Too bid for me, so wait for trend change and poss short.
Cable – Boss shows a perfect doji and poss LH from the Shooting Star high some weeks back. 1.6750 level seems key so if it's rejected, short only below last low at 1.6500.
Gbpyen. - Boss still in minor Barbwire but still above the TL from the lows. Long above 153.90 and short below 145.00. Worker in pennant shape, so expect an explosive move when she goes but side with short to main TL after Dbl Top.
Gbpchf – Weekly Hang Man candle below the Mas on boss that are on top of one another. PA stuck underneath them and last UP TL so short only on pullbacks on the worker. Worker shows Shooting Star on Fri so short below 1.6832.
Eurusd – Boss shows a weak shooting star and LH after the BEEB 2 weeks ago. Still above steep TL so until that is broken its long only. Careful of poss LH Dbl top – if the test of the BO level at 1.4800 goes then get short.
Audusd – Monthly still in Up trend. Worker shows poss HH double top. Still above the TL though so until that breaks it's long only.
Usdchf – Boss give a hammer 2nd low poss dbl bottom. Still in major down trend so until the last high of that trend at 1.0350 goes it's short on pullbacks.
Usdcad – Monthly hammer off key level and gives a HL from the low at Sep 07. Boss shows a bear candle but worker gives poss HL with a BUOB. This looks like a test of the major down trend break with a HL. PA is above the down trend line so the hammer is still the controlling candle – long above candle high at 1.110.
USDYEN – Boss still in major down trend. No TL breaks yet so short only. Worker shows a BEEB on Fri so short below that at 89.45.
Euryen – Boss still rangebound; Poss weak S Star last week. Line chart above the TL from lows still, so long only above 135.40.
Eurgbp – Hang' Man last week. Worker is rangebound and stuck sideways. Unsure so Neutral.
Eurnzd – Boss gapped lower last week but still above the low of the BUEB previously. Major down TL broken so could be a test of that BO. Wait for a HL before any longs. Neutral.
Gbpcad – Boss LH with BEEB last week from previous Hang' Man candle. Back below the SR at 1.771 so short only with trend.
Nzdusd – Monthly Shooter still in play. Wait for break of the .7070 level to get short.
Audyen – Up trend still intact so long only above the last high at 85.00. Worker looking weak though with various dojis. Wait for a test of the last BO from the 82.00 level before anything.
EurCad – Mas all flat on Monthly and boss poss dbl top bear flag. Rangebound but worker still below dbl top bear flag. Wait for market to show hand.
GbpAud – Monthly hammer on trend channel overshoot low after 2 pushes down. Boss BUOB. Worker shows a poss HL IB. Long only above 1.8500.
CadJpy – Monthly bear candle boss BEEB after monthly 20ema test and rejection of descending TL from highs. Short only below 81.91 level.
NzdJpy - Monthly Shooter – Boss BEEB. Worker shows poss test of underside of the up TL. Short only below 62.88.
Nat Gas – 4th Boss down trend bar and up TL break. Wait for a test of the BO level and poss retrace after the TL break back up to a HH or LH. Expected move after the major down trend line was breached on strong momentum so expecting a higher low test. Wait for HL to establish before going Long.
Gold (Spot)– Monthly Bull Candle breaking old highs. 2nd Boss bull trend candle after BO test 2 weeks' ago. Long Only.
DowJones Dec Fut -(YMZ9) – Monthly Doji high broken. Boss bull trend after the down TL break. After such a strong TL break there will be a retest of the BO poss back to 8944 level. Too bid for me; Worker shows a steep rising wedge with a pattern overshoot. Wait for confirmation then Short only below 10000 level.
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Boss trying a 2nd BO of the 5300 level. Poss double top here with worker showing 3 dojis. If the 5300 level is rejected expect a test of the last BO level back at 4477. Too bid for me, so wait for trend change and poss short.
Cable – Boss shows a perfect doji and poss LH from the Shooting Star high some weeks back. 1.6750 level seems key so if it's rejected, short only below last low at 1.6500.
Gbpyen. - Boss still in minor Barbwire but still above the TL from the lows. Long above 153.90 and short below 145.00. Worker in pennant shape, so expect an explosive move when she goes but side with short to main TL after Dbl Top.
Gbpchf – Weekly Hang Man candle below the Mas on boss that are on top of one another. PA stuck underneath them and last UP TL so short only on pullbacks on the worker. Worker shows Shooting Star on Fri so short below 1.6832.
Eurusd – Boss shows a weak shooting star and LH after the BEEB 2 weeks ago. Still above steep TL so until that is broken its long only. Careful of poss LH Dbl top – if the test of the BO level at 1.4800 goes then get short.
Audusd – Monthly still in Up trend. Worker shows poss HH double top. Still above the TL though so until that breaks it's long only.
Usdchf – Boss give a hammer 2nd low poss dbl bottom. Still in major down trend so until the last high of that trend at 1.0350 goes it's short on pullbacks.
Usdcad – Monthly hammer off key level and gives a HL from the low at Sep 07. Boss shows a bear candle but worker gives poss HL with a BUOB. This looks like a test of the major down trend break with a HL. PA is above the down trend line so the hammer is still the controlling candle – long above candle high at 1.110.
USDYEN – Boss still in major down trend. No TL breaks yet so short only. Worker shows a BEEB on Fri so short below that at 89.45.
Euryen – Boss still rangebound; Poss weak S Star last week. Line chart above the TL from lows still, so long only above 135.40.
Eurgbp – Hang' Man last week. Worker is rangebound and stuck sideways. Unsure so Neutral.
Eurnzd – Boss gapped lower last week but still above the low of the BUEB previously. Major down TL broken so could be a test of that BO. Wait for a HL before any longs. Neutral.
Gbpcad – Boss LH with BEEB last week from previous Hang' Man candle. Back below the SR at 1.771 so short only with trend.
Nzdusd – Monthly Shooter still in play. Wait for break of the .7070 level to get short.
Audyen – Up trend still intact so long only above the last high at 85.00. Worker looking weak though with various dojis. Wait for a test of the last BO from the 82.00 level before anything.
EurCad – Mas all flat on Monthly and boss poss dbl top bear flag. Rangebound but worker still below dbl top bear flag. Wait for market to show hand.
GbpAud – Monthly hammer on trend channel overshoot low after 2 pushes down. Boss BUOB. Worker shows a poss HL IB. Long only above 1.8500.
CadJpy – Monthly bear candle boss BEEB after monthly 20ema test and rejection of descending TL from highs. Short only below 81.91 level.
NzdJpy - Monthly Shooter – Boss BEEB. Worker shows poss test of underside of the up TL. Short only below 62.88.
11 Nov 2009
USDCHF - Poss action??
Like Dr Joe said, it keeps going down till it starts going up. Still going down here but with usdcad having a monthly hammer things could start to turn for the $
7 Nov 2009
Weekly Analysis 7 Nov 09
Lt Sweet Crude Oct Fut – Long only on pullbacks – Boss shows inverted hammer. Closed above Mas and NO TL break yet so still long only.
Nat Gas – 3rd Boss down trend bar and up TL break. Wait for a test of the BO level and poss retrace after the TL break back up to a HH or LH. Expected move after the major down trend line was breached so expecting a higher low test. Wait for HL to establish before going Long.
Gold – Monthly Bull Candle breaking old highs. Boss bull trend candle after BO test last week. Long Only.
DowJones Sep Fut -(YMZ9) – Monthly Doji high still in control. Boss bull trend bar but not above highs from previous weeks. Major tussle at meeting of a bull/bear TL. Wait for resolution but with no TL break it's still long only until that happens.
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Boss IB candle body that rinsed shorts last week by taking out BEEB low by a few pips then reversing. Short below the 4910 level as we have had 2 TL breaks with the first followed by a HH test.
Cable – Monthly BUEB. Boss S/Star 3 weeks ago still the controlling candle as PA trapped below the monthly 20ema although closed above the descending TL – Short only on pullbacks unless high of shooter and monthly 20ema is breached.
Gbpyen. - Boss bull candle but still below major descending TL after a dbl top. Short only on pullbacks. Note close correlation with indices.
Gbpchf – As above – Boss seems to be in a bear flag. Still below the boss 20/50 Mas. Expect a LL/HL test of the bottom back in Oct 13
Eurusd – Boss IB (body). No TL breaks of note so still long only. Caution though as could be forming a RHS of a H&S pattern.
Audusd – Monthly still in Up trend. No TL breaks so still long only.
Usdchf – Monthly shows a hammer and poss HL after the low from Dec 07. 1.0258 level is a major level and have a bear IB (body). Still in downtrend so short below break of boss IB.
Usdcad – Monthly hammer off key level and gives a HL from the low at Sep 07. Boss still gave a bear hanging man. Unless last high of down move is taken out at 1.100 level it's still short on pullbacks.
USDYEN – At base of recent bear channel after a channel breach that gave us a hammer. Boss shows inverted hammer. Wait for swing to show, but could be putting a bottom in here so I would side with long above the BEOB at 92.40 level. This could also point to equities falling soon.
Euryen – Monthly is in BarbWire but last candle was a shooter. Boss still below last weeks high and stuck in range. Neutral.
Eurgbp – Boss shows inverted hammer above the boss 20ema that is sitting ion the 50sma. Still long only above top of Inv Hammer at .9100 SR level.
Eurnzd – Boss Doji above the previous boss BUEB. Not convinced with long just yet as the TL break was very weak and a poss bull trap. Would like to see bullish PA on the descending TL giving a test for long. Neutral.
Gbpcad – Boss Hanging Man just rejecting the boss 50sma. Still short only on this pair. Worker looks like a dbl top bear flag so short below 1.7464 level.
Nzdusd – Monthly Shooter still in play. Wait for break of the .7070 level to get short.
Audyen – Looking toppy – doji close on worker on Fri. Could be a LH so short below the 81.27 SR level should It go.
EurCad – Mas all flat on Monthly and boss poss dbl top bear flag. PA in large pennant – neutral.
GbpAud – Monthly hammer on trend channel overshoot low after 2 pushes down. Boss BUOB. Long only above 1.8500.
CadJpy – Monthly bear candle boss BEEB after monthly 20ema test and rejection of descending TL from highs. Short only below 81.91 level.
NzdJpy - Monthly Shooter – Boss BEEB. Short only below 62.88.
Nat Gas – 3rd Boss down trend bar and up TL break. Wait for a test of the BO level and poss retrace after the TL break back up to a HH or LH. Expected move after the major down trend line was breached so expecting a higher low test. Wait for HL to establish before going Long.
Gold – Monthly Bull Candle breaking old highs. Boss bull trend candle after BO test last week. Long Only.
DowJones Sep Fut -(YMZ9) – Monthly Doji high still in control. Boss bull trend bar but not above highs from previous weeks. Major tussle at meeting of a bull/bear TL. Wait for resolution but with no TL break it's still long only until that happens.
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Boss IB candle body that rinsed shorts last week by taking out BEEB low by a few pips then reversing. Short below the 4910 level as we have had 2 TL breaks with the first followed by a HH test.
Cable – Monthly BUEB. Boss S/Star 3 weeks ago still the controlling candle as PA trapped below the monthly 20ema although closed above the descending TL – Short only on pullbacks unless high of shooter and monthly 20ema is breached.
Gbpyen. - Boss bull candle but still below major descending TL after a dbl top. Short only on pullbacks. Note close correlation with indices.
Gbpchf – As above – Boss seems to be in a bear flag. Still below the boss 20/50 Mas. Expect a LL/HL test of the bottom back in Oct 13
Eurusd – Boss IB (body). No TL breaks of note so still long only. Caution though as could be forming a RHS of a H&S pattern.
Audusd – Monthly still in Up trend. No TL breaks so still long only.
Usdchf – Monthly shows a hammer and poss HL after the low from Dec 07. 1.0258 level is a major level and have a bear IB (body). Still in downtrend so short below break of boss IB.
Usdcad – Monthly hammer off key level and gives a HL from the low at Sep 07. Boss still gave a bear hanging man. Unless last high of down move is taken out at 1.100 level it's still short on pullbacks.
USDYEN – At base of recent bear channel after a channel breach that gave us a hammer. Boss shows inverted hammer. Wait for swing to show, but could be putting a bottom in here so I would side with long above the BEOB at 92.40 level. This could also point to equities falling soon.
Euryen – Monthly is in BarbWire but last candle was a shooter. Boss still below last weeks high and stuck in range. Neutral.
Eurgbp – Boss shows inverted hammer above the boss 20ema that is sitting ion the 50sma. Still long only above top of Inv Hammer at .9100 SR level.
Eurnzd – Boss Doji above the previous boss BUEB. Not convinced with long just yet as the TL break was very weak and a poss bull trap. Would like to see bullish PA on the descending TL giving a test for long. Neutral.
Gbpcad – Boss Hanging Man just rejecting the boss 50sma. Still short only on this pair. Worker looks like a dbl top bear flag so short below 1.7464 level.
Nzdusd – Monthly Shooter still in play. Wait for break of the .7070 level to get short.
Audyen – Looking toppy – doji close on worker on Fri. Could be a LH so short below the 81.27 SR level should It go.
EurCad – Mas all flat on Monthly and boss poss dbl top bear flag. PA in large pennant – neutral.
GbpAud – Monthly hammer on trend channel overshoot low after 2 pushes down. Boss BUOB. Long only above 1.8500.
CadJpy – Monthly bear candle boss BEEB after monthly 20ema test and rejection of descending TL from highs. Short only below 81.91 level.
NzdJpy - Monthly Shooter – Boss BEEB. Short only below 62.88.
3 Nov 2009
1 Nov 2009
Monthly and Weekly Analysis - 1 Nov 09
Lt Sweet Crude Dec Fut – Long only on pullbacks – Big boss bull candle, boss bear candle coming back to test BO from the last high at 75.25 and the B Boss 50sma. Long only on pullback to the BO level.
Nat Gas – Big Boss bearish candle but not closed below previous month. Boss shooting star between levels 2weeks ago is still the controlling PA. Boss in Barbwire. Worker now bearish too as last high of up move taken out. Could find support at 20/50 Boss ema but if they go, short only below $4.000
Gold – Monthly Bull Candle breaking old highs. Boss hammer – so long only above 1069 (high of IB preceding the hammer).
DowJones Dec Fut -(YMZ9) – Monthly Doji after up move. Boss bear rejection of the descending TL from the highs. If trhe monthly 20ema is broken and last low of 9309 plus the rising TL then short only below that level.
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Monthly Shooter as well as IB. Boss BEEB. Short below the 4910 level.
Cable – Monthly BUEB. Boss S/Star 2 weeks ago still the controlling candle as PA trapped below the monthly 20ema although closed above the descending TL – Short only on pullbacks unless 1.6745 level goes
Gbpyen. - Monthly bull IB. Boss doji/S/Star and IB(loose) but worker BEEB. Short only on pullbacks.
Gbpchf – As above – Monthly bull candle but wkly BUOB. Worker IB– short on pullbacks.
Eurusd – Monthly Shooter but with a close above previous month BUT right at the BO level from the previous high of the downtrend. Boss BEOB but close just below the recent UP TL. Worker BEEB. Short only below 1.4680 level.
Audusd – Monthly still in Up trend. Boss has fallen back to the up TL. Worker shows loose IB. Still long only until the last low of the up move at 0.8552 goes.
Usdchf – Monthly shows a hammer and poss HL after the low from Dec 07. If the 1.0600 level is broken then long only. Boss gives a BUEB so if the 1.0300 goes then we have a confirmed HL in place. Long above 1.0300.
Usdcad – Monthly hammer off key level and gives a HL from the low at Sep 07. Boss still bullish and we have a worker BUOB on Friday. Long only above 1.0880 level.
USDYEN – Monthly doji after down move but boss and worker still bearish. Short only.
Euryen – Monthly is in BarbWire but last candle was a shooter. Boss gives a BEOB and a triple top. Short only below 132.050.
Eurgbp – Monthly bear candle IB. Boss BEOB with a 3rd LH from the high back in Dec 2008. Major UP trend still intact but in minor downtrend. Short below 0.8884
Eurnzd – Monthly hammer off old BO level from Jan 2008. PA closed above the major down trend line of past months. Boss BUEB smashing thru TL. Expect a test of such a strong TL and target long only to 2.1065 SR level.
Gbpcad – Major downtrend still intact so short only on bear PA.
Nzdusd – Monthly Shooter of best kind. Boss BEEB with worker BEEB too. Short only as UP TL broken but expect a test from underneath after such a strong trend.
Audyen – Monthly big bull doji but not convinced. Up TL still intact but boss showing a BEEB so short only as we have now had 2 significant up TL breaks and 2 HH tests of those breaks.
EurCad – Mas all flat on Monthly and boss. PA in large pennant – neutral.
GbpAud – Monthly hammer. Boss BUOB. Long only above 1.8354.
CadJpy – Monthly bear candle boss BEEB after monthly 20ema test and rejection of descending TL from highs. Short only.
NzdJpy - Monthly Shooter – Boss BEEB. Short only below 62.88.
Nat Gas – Big Boss bearish candle but not closed below previous month. Boss shooting star between levels 2weeks ago is still the controlling PA. Boss in Barbwire. Worker now bearish too as last high of up move taken out. Could find support at 20/50 Boss ema but if they go, short only below $4.000
Gold – Monthly Bull Candle breaking old highs. Boss hammer – so long only above 1069 (high of IB preceding the hammer).
DowJones Dec Fut -(YMZ9) – Monthly Doji after up move. Boss bear rejection of the descending TL from the highs. If trhe monthly 20ema is broken and last low of 9309 plus the rising TL then short only below that level.
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Monthly Shooter as well as IB. Boss BEEB. Short below the 4910 level.
Cable – Monthly BUEB. Boss S/Star 2 weeks ago still the controlling candle as PA trapped below the monthly 20ema although closed above the descending TL – Short only on pullbacks unless 1.6745 level goes
Gbpyen. - Monthly bull IB. Boss doji/S/Star and IB(loose) but worker BEEB. Short only on pullbacks.
Gbpchf – As above – Monthly bull candle but wkly BUOB. Worker IB– short on pullbacks.
Eurusd – Monthly Shooter but with a close above previous month BUT right at the BO level from the previous high of the downtrend. Boss BEOB but close just below the recent UP TL. Worker BEEB. Short only below 1.4680 level.
Audusd – Monthly still in Up trend. Boss has fallen back to the up TL. Worker shows loose IB. Still long only until the last low of the up move at 0.8552 goes.
Usdchf – Monthly shows a hammer and poss HL after the low from Dec 07. If the 1.0600 level is broken then long only. Boss gives a BUEB so if the 1.0300 goes then we have a confirmed HL in place. Long above 1.0300.
Usdcad – Monthly hammer off key level and gives a HL from the low at Sep 07. Boss still bullish and we have a worker BUOB on Friday. Long only above 1.0880 level.
USDYEN – Monthly doji after down move but boss and worker still bearish. Short only.
Euryen – Monthly is in BarbWire but last candle was a shooter. Boss gives a BEOB and a triple top. Short only below 132.050.
Eurgbp – Monthly bear candle IB. Boss BEOB with a 3rd LH from the high back in Dec 2008. Major UP trend still intact but in minor downtrend. Short below 0.8884
Eurnzd – Monthly hammer off old BO level from Jan 2008. PA closed above the major down trend line of past months. Boss BUEB smashing thru TL. Expect a test of such a strong TL and target long only to 2.1065 SR level.
Gbpcad – Major downtrend still intact so short only on bear PA.
Nzdusd – Monthly Shooter of best kind. Boss BEEB with worker BEEB too. Short only as UP TL broken but expect a test from underneath after such a strong trend.
Audyen – Monthly big bull doji but not convinced. Up TL still intact but boss showing a BEEB so short only as we have now had 2 significant up TL breaks and 2 HH tests of those breaks.
EurCad – Mas all flat on Monthly and boss. PA in large pennant – neutral.
GbpAud – Monthly hammer. Boss BUOB. Long only above 1.8354.
CadJpy – Monthly bear candle boss BEEB after monthly 20ema test and rejection of descending TL from highs. Short only.
NzdJpy - Monthly Shooter – Boss BEEB. Short only below 62.88.
25 Oct 2009
Weekly Analysis 25 Oct 09
Away with work all week so still not trading Live, hence limited analysis this week. Gbp looks best short of the week.
Lt Sweet Crude Oct Fut – Long only on pullbacks – Boss doji so expect test of the BO level
Nat Gas – Boss shooting star between levels. Boss in Barbwire. Neutral but pull ISA ETC if the $4.414 level goes.
Gold – Boss IB – expect a test of the 1033 level. Long only.
DowJones Sep Fut -(YMZ9) – Boss Doji on the big weekly downtrend. Key test here but long only on current trends unless this major DSRI level goes.
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– 2nd Boss Doji on the major downtrend line. Worker shows a shooting star on Fri. Wait for PA but still long only until the trend changes.
Cable – Boss S/Star and worker BEEB – Short only on pullbacks.
Gbpyen. - Boss doji/S/Star (loose) but worker BEOB. Short only on pullbacks.
Gbpchf – As above – boss IB and worker BEOB – short on pullbacks.
Eurusd – Up TL still in force – Long only on pullbacks.
Audusd – 0.9315 level trapping upward move but it's still long only until the trend changes.
Usdchf – Boss still down, but worker could be changing after inverted hammer and a bull trend bar. Neutral until will get some HL's for new uptrend.
Usdcad – PA under the down TL but worker hammer has produced a bull Trend bar. Wait for a HL before long on pullbacks.
USDYEN – Long only above 92.60 (last high of previous down trend)
Euryen – Triple top poss forming on boss at 138.00 level. PA still under monthly 20ema – long only above that level on bull PA and test.
Eurgbp – Boss hammer off the most recent up TL. Worker BUOB on Fri. Long only. Parity here we come!
Eurnzd – Short only. Down trend still in force.
Gbpcad – Major downtrend still intact so short only on bear PA.
Nzdusd – Major up TL still intact – long only on pullbacks.
Audyen – Long only – Dr Joe – still keeps going up.
EurCad – Poss double bottom in – long only once the old Rest level at 1.6095 is broken.
GbpAud – Still short only on pullbacks. Respecting the worker 20ema
CadJpy – Boss hanging man and I think short only after a major TL break and a HH. PA on the down TL so siding with short only.
Lt Sweet Crude Oct Fut – Long only on pullbacks – Boss doji so expect test of the BO level
Nat Gas – Boss shooting star between levels. Boss in Barbwire. Neutral but pull ISA ETC if the $4.414 level goes.
Gold – Boss IB – expect a test of the 1033 level. Long only.
DowJones Sep Fut -(YMZ9) – Boss Doji on the big weekly downtrend. Key test here but long only on current trends unless this major DSRI level goes.
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– 2nd Boss Doji on the major downtrend line. Worker shows a shooting star on Fri. Wait for PA but still long only until the trend changes.
Cable – Boss S/Star and worker BEEB – Short only on pullbacks.
Gbpyen. - Boss doji/S/Star (loose) but worker BEOB. Short only on pullbacks.
Gbpchf – As above – boss IB and worker BEOB – short on pullbacks.
Eurusd – Up TL still in force – Long only on pullbacks.
Audusd – 0.9315 level trapping upward move but it's still long only until the trend changes.
Usdchf – Boss still down, but worker could be changing after inverted hammer and a bull trend bar. Neutral until will get some HL's for new uptrend.
Usdcad – PA under the down TL but worker hammer has produced a bull Trend bar. Wait for a HL before long on pullbacks.
USDYEN – Long only above 92.60 (last high of previous down trend)
Euryen – Triple top poss forming on boss at 138.00 level. PA still under monthly 20ema – long only above that level on bull PA and test.
Eurgbp – Boss hammer off the most recent up TL. Worker BUOB on Fri. Long only. Parity here we come!
Eurnzd – Short only. Down trend still in force.
Gbpcad – Major downtrend still intact so short only on bear PA.
Nzdusd – Major up TL still intact – long only on pullbacks.
Audyen – Long only – Dr Joe – still keeps going up.
EurCad – Poss double bottom in – long only once the old Rest level at 1.6095 is broken.
GbpAud – Still short only on pullbacks. Respecting the worker 20ema
CadJpy – Boss hanging man and I think short only after a major TL break and a HH. PA on the down TL so siding with short only.
19 Oct 2009
17 Oct 2009
Weekly Analysis 17 Oct 09
Lt Sweet Crude Oct Fut – Strong bullish break out of recent consolidation area. PA now above the Mas. Long only on Pullbacks. Expect pullback to 75 level (monthly 50sma) or 72 BO level.
Nat Gas – Boss chart shows a hammer after last weeks bear doji. Barbwire but always side with the most recent candle and expect the uptrend to continue. Long above the $4.08 SR level.
Gold – Big boss bullish, boss still bullish with large trend candle breaking last old high of 1033. Last week gave us a weak shooting star but I would not short at this level as there has not been a significant TL break first. Wait for retrace into the 1033 level and see how PA reacts there but side with LONG only unless that $1000 level is again violated.
DowJones Sep Fut -(YMZ9) – Major Up TL still intact although we have had a smaller TL break. Boss gives us a small bull candle off the up TL but we are back at the monthly DOWN TL from the highs. Last low of this UP TL has not been broken and with Crispen Odey (Hedge fund chairman) saying buy all QE shares until QE stops, it's a still LONG ONLY chart buying pullbacks to the 20 ema.
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Worker TL break after a double top and we have broken the worker 20ema. Worker shows a BEOB on Fri's close but the major UP trend is still intact. It's a LONG only on pullbacks unless the get a LH under the key 5100 level.
Cable – Major boss down trend is still in force (weak) but the stong bull trend off the lows is still in play. However, the minor downtrend from the S Star highs is still intact even after the large BUOB last week. I'd like to see the minor downtrend line broken and tested for longs or rejected for shorts. PA is still under the major down TL so early part of the week will reveal all IMO. Worker 20 and 50 are both pointing down still so Neutral on this until the direction becomes clear.
Gbpyen. - Up TL broken some twice weeks back. Boss chart still bearish after 2 pushes down after a double top. PA last week rallied strongly from the BarWire and broke the down trend line and 20ema. Currently in the 20/50 trap but I would expect a test of the steep broken TL and poss 144.00 ish level (high of the Barbwire). Still under the Boss Mas, so, Neutral until there is a BO test but still favour short over the next few days to test the BO.
Gbpchf – Boss chart shows major downtrend still intact but the recent down move has given us 2 pushes down. BUOB last week off the 1.6492 SR zone but after such a big move down I'd be reticent to go long. We could have a HL from the last low in Dec and if PA rallied off here that could be seen as bullish. PA has not broken out from the SR level of the last high of the downtrend so I'd like to see a worker test and HL AND break above 1.6730 before going long. Neutral.
Eurusd – Broken out of triangle and is above 61% fib. Bull candle last week. Tested wedge BO though and up TL still intact but last week did not break old highs. Worker gives us a BO test so this pair is LONG only on pullbacks.
Audusd – This pair has rallied so strongly from the lows it defies gravity! Boss still bullish as is the worker. Above the 76% retrace so far too bid for me to get in at this level but, it keeps going up and until the UP TL is broken then one should LONG every pullback PA opportunity.
Usdchf – Boss shows us a BEOB but PA is extended far from the 20ema so it's short only but wait for a elastic pullback to the 20ema first.
Usdcad – Boss still bearish with no trend line breaks long. Only take PASR long after a TL break. Boss shows a weak hammer but with no previous TL breaks I'm not interested. Still short on pullbacks.
USDYEN – 2nd bounce of the TL created as double bottom on the monthly charts. Down TL still not broken so I would stick with short only unless the 92.00 level is broken and tested.
Euryen – Minor up trend still intact after the hammer test of the TL from the March lows. Boss shows bullish candles so its Dr Joe. Keep buying on the way up but I'd like to see PA breach 137 and Monthly 20ema confluence before going long.
Eurgbp – PA not broken the last high of the most recent Boss downtrend from the highs. Boss last week shows a BEOB but the minor UP TL is still intact. Wait for a TL break and test on good PASR but after 3rd Boss lower high side with short after minor up TL break. Worker S Star a few days ago worked as planned and hit initial target exactly!
Eurnzd – No reason to do anything here other than short. Wait for significant TL break before considering any longs from last weeks IB. Short only but risky so sit this one out.
Gbpcad – Boss shows PA retrace back to 20ema. Look for a worker PA setup to continue with SHORT only.
Nzdusd – Long only. All charts still bullish. Only short below .7246 last low of uptrend level.
Audyen – Boss still bullish but now in the 20/50 Boss ema trap. Worker gives us a S Star on Friday's close and momentum has been weakening of late. Wait for S Star to activate and PA produce a LH below the SR level at 81.80 before going short or continue with long should that level be tested and produce a bullish PA to stick with trend.
EurCad – Difficult chart to assess. Had 2 TL breaks to the downside and PA is under the last one. Wait for PASR from this underside position and continue with recent minor down trend.
GbpAud – Still short all the way. No reason to counter trend this at all. Short all pullbacks to the 20ema.
CadJpy – Long only above the Monthly 20ema at 88.80
Nat Gas – Boss chart shows a hammer after last weeks bear doji. Barbwire but always side with the most recent candle and expect the uptrend to continue. Long above the $4.08 SR level.
Gold – Big boss bullish, boss still bullish with large trend candle breaking last old high of 1033. Last week gave us a weak shooting star but I would not short at this level as there has not been a significant TL break first. Wait for retrace into the 1033 level and see how PA reacts there but side with LONG only unless that $1000 level is again violated.
DowJones Sep Fut -(YMZ9) – Major Up TL still intact although we have had a smaller TL break. Boss gives us a small bull candle off the up TL but we are back at the monthly DOWN TL from the highs. Last low of this UP TL has not been broken and with Crispen Odey (Hedge fund chairman) saying buy all QE shares until QE stops, it's a still LONG ONLY chart buying pullbacks to the 20 ema.
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Worker TL break after a double top and we have broken the worker 20ema. Worker shows a BEOB on Fri's close but the major UP trend is still intact. It's a LONG only on pullbacks unless the get a LH under the key 5100 level.
Cable – Major boss down trend is still in force (weak) but the stong bull trend off the lows is still in play. However, the minor downtrend from the S Star highs is still intact even after the large BUOB last week. I'd like to see the minor downtrend line broken and tested for longs or rejected for shorts. PA is still under the major down TL so early part of the week will reveal all IMO. Worker 20 and 50 are both pointing down still so Neutral on this until the direction becomes clear.
Gbpyen. - Up TL broken some twice weeks back. Boss chart still bearish after 2 pushes down after a double top. PA last week rallied strongly from the BarWire and broke the down trend line and 20ema. Currently in the 20/50 trap but I would expect a test of the steep broken TL and poss 144.00 ish level (high of the Barbwire). Still under the Boss Mas, so, Neutral until there is a BO test but still favour short over the next few days to test the BO.
Gbpchf – Boss chart shows major downtrend still intact but the recent down move has given us 2 pushes down. BUOB last week off the 1.6492 SR zone but after such a big move down I'd be reticent to go long. We could have a HL from the last low in Dec and if PA rallied off here that could be seen as bullish. PA has not broken out from the SR level of the last high of the downtrend so I'd like to see a worker test and HL AND break above 1.6730 before going long. Neutral.
Eurusd – Broken out of triangle and is above 61% fib. Bull candle last week. Tested wedge BO though and up TL still intact but last week did not break old highs. Worker gives us a BO test so this pair is LONG only on pullbacks.
Audusd – This pair has rallied so strongly from the lows it defies gravity! Boss still bullish as is the worker. Above the 76% retrace so far too bid for me to get in at this level but, it keeps going up and until the UP TL is broken then one should LONG every pullback PA opportunity.
Usdchf – Boss shows us a BEOB but PA is extended far from the 20ema so it's short only but wait for a elastic pullback to the 20ema first.
Usdcad – Boss still bearish with no trend line breaks long. Only take PASR long after a TL break. Boss shows a weak hammer but with no previous TL breaks I'm not interested. Still short on pullbacks.
USDYEN – 2nd bounce of the TL created as double bottom on the monthly charts. Down TL still not broken so I would stick with short only unless the 92.00 level is broken and tested.
Euryen – Minor up trend still intact after the hammer test of the TL from the March lows. Boss shows bullish candles so its Dr Joe. Keep buying on the way up but I'd like to see PA breach 137 and Monthly 20ema confluence before going long.
Eurgbp – PA not broken the last high of the most recent Boss downtrend from the highs. Boss last week shows a BEOB but the minor UP TL is still intact. Wait for a TL break and test on good PASR but after 3rd Boss lower high side with short after minor up TL break. Worker S Star a few days ago worked as planned and hit initial target exactly!
Eurnzd – No reason to do anything here other than short. Wait for significant TL break before considering any longs from last weeks IB. Short only but risky so sit this one out.
Gbpcad – Boss shows PA retrace back to 20ema. Look for a worker PA setup to continue with SHORT only.
Nzdusd – Long only. All charts still bullish. Only short below .7246 last low of uptrend level.
Audyen – Boss still bullish but now in the 20/50 Boss ema trap. Worker gives us a S Star on Friday's close and momentum has been weakening of late. Wait for S Star to activate and PA produce a LH below the SR level at 81.80 before going short or continue with long should that level be tested and produce a bullish PA to stick with trend.
EurCad – Difficult chart to assess. Had 2 TL breaks to the downside and PA is under the last one. Wait for PASR from this underside position and continue with recent minor down trend.
GbpAud – Still short all the way. No reason to counter trend this at all. Short all pullbacks to the 20ema.
CadJpy – Long only above the Monthly 20ema at 88.80
13 Oct 2009
11 Oct 2009
Weekly Analysis 11 Oct 09
Lt Sweet Crude Nov Fut – Boss chart now still in minor uptrend from lows. PA has broken thru the monthly 20ema but is still under the 50sma. Still just under the 50% retrace from high to low and skirting the key 72.00 level. Trapped under minor down TL from high at 74.90 but after a major TL break i'd prefer this short below 65.00 or long above the monthly 50sma at 75.00. Neutral.
Nat Gas – Big boss chart shows large BUOB. Boss shows a hanging man 2 weeks ago and a shooting star this week. Bearish but UP TL has held so far. Expect a test of 4.65 (last high of downtrend on worker) so still LONG only but only as long as that BO level holds.
Gold – Big boss bullish, boss still bullish with large trend candle breaking last old high of 1033. Still in major uptrend so LONG only on pullbacks.
DowJones Sep Fut -(YMZ9) – Major Up TL still intact although we have had a smaller TL break. Boss gives us a large bull candle off the up TL but we are back at the monthly DOWN TL from the highs. Last low of this UP TL has not been broken and with Crispen Odey (Hedge fund chairman) saying buy all QE shares until QE stops, it's a LONG ONLY chart buying pullbacks to the 20 ema.
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Worker TL break after a double top and we have broken the woker 20ema. Boss bullish still so long only on pullbacks.
Cable – Boss chart is bearish after the S Star a few weeks back and the M2S (Lower high short near the ema). This week an IB inside last weeks doji/spinning top. PA rejected break of minor down TL. Worker shows a large BEEB. Short only below 1.5760 SR.
Gbpyen. - Up TL broken some weeks back. Boss chart still bearish after 2 pushes down after a double top. Last 2 weeks gives doji/hammer looking bar right off the BO test of the last high of the downtrend. Also at 50% fib retrace from extreme low to high and 61% from top of first wave to top. Worker is in a mess with dojis everywhere. Stand aside but look for opportunities on worker in week. Favour short to SR level at 131.00
Gbpchf – Major up TL's broken. Boss chart still bearish but we have had 2 pushes down resulting in a spinning top at SR level. Boss shows an IB last week right at key 1.6490 SR but worker Hammer from 28 Sept still in play. Neutral.
Eurusd – Broken out of triangle and is above 61% fib. Bull candle last week. Tested wedge BO though and up TL still intact but last week did not break old highs. Worker shows a double top right at the level of the big downtrend spike high from last year. Wait for up TL to be broken and tested for short or double top to be broken for long with trend.
Audusd – Major up TL is still intact on boss with bullish PA after interest rise last week. Could be a large trend-channel over shoot that plays out over 2 weeks? Price looks way to bid-up for me to enter but we are above the 75% retrace too and all MA's. No longs here for me, wait for new trend to establish short before entering.
Usdchf – Boss has broken thru major levels and up TL's . Boss gives us a BUEB right back at the 76% retrace! Deep one that. Boss shows a weak hammer but no protrusion into new lows. Worker IB on Fri but still below the 20ema. No trade here for me but favour LONG should the 20ema break and get tested.
Usdcad – Boss shows a huge bear candle. Smashing thru SR levels and last Up TL. Short only on retraces with short PA.
USDYEN – Major down TL's have been broken and trend is very bearish. 2nd Boss Hammer at the base of this bear channel. Had 2 pushes down (just) and hammer gives us a HL from the low back in Jan 09. Worker gives huge BUEB. ATM long to next SR at 91 at least but only once we have a worker HL.
Euryen – Major UP TL has been broken and tested from underneath. Boss gives us a BUEB after last week's hammer. Worker back above the minor SR level created by the break of the last low of recent down trend channel. Boss still in up trend so long only on bullish PASR unless base of hammer is broken.
Eurgbp – Major UP Trend is still intact with minor DOWN TL now broken and poss tested. Boss gives us a bull bar. Worker gives text-book shooting star about 2 weeks ago that is still the controlling candle. Risky counter-trend short back to 0.9020 level. Sit this out.
Eurnzd – Boss down trend still intact and now we have the MAJOR up TL broken. Boss bear candle. - Poss test now of the broken TL from underneath so wait for PA retrace. PA below the monthly 50sma. No trade here against such a strong trend down.
Gbpcad – Messy. Last week gave huge bear candle. Still in a down Trend. Major up TL's have been broken. Wait for test of broken TL. No trade here.
Nzdusd – Boss is still in major UP trend. PA at the 77% retrace at 0.7386 and worker shows a BEEB. Major UP TL's still intact. Would like to see last high of the uptrend broken and tested (0.7305) for short but until then, too bid for me so no trade here.
Audyen – Boss gives us a huge BUEB but we have not broken thru old highs. PA above big boss 20ema and back above up TL. Not as bid as audusd so long only on pullbacks or break of the last high at 82.10 (with 50% fib confluence)
EurCad – Had one major UP TL break but the second one is holding so far after the hammer a few weeks back. 2 weeks ago Boss gave us a BEOB. All Mas are flat but worker gives a S Star. Last low of Up Trend still not broken so wait for test of that SR for LONG.
GbpAud – Boss chart in a major downtrend and lowest on my chart data. Short only on pullbacks to down TL and worker 20ema.
CadJpy – Boss up TL still intact (just) after two tests. Worker shows 2 hammers much as the other yen pairs right off the Up TL and SR at 81.91. Long with major up trend but counter the immediate down trend after a huge double top. With Up TL still intact LONG only until PA dictates otherwise.
6 Oct 2009
Swing High/Low
For a CONFIRMED swing high, the high must be higher than the preceding bar and there must be a LOW lower than the low of the swing high.
For a Swing Low the low must be lower than the previous candle and there must be a HIGH, higher than the high of the swing low
Simples
Trade the charts - not the News - Strat
Quote:
Originally Posted by chanak  Have to watch this with Shares though as there are sometimes 'lenders' in the market. Some big MMs and Brokers will have a pool of shares waiting to be traded. These shares can be 'lent' to CFD traders or sold to buyers. Are these 'dormant' shares already purchased by the broker or 'lent' on condition of sale by the company issuing the shares? In Forex I would imagine that this wouldn't be the case as it's a Zero-Sum game - two sides to the transaction? Grimweasel... Do we really need to know 'why' a bull bar has appeared on a chart... |
Danny boy, your handle should have been “Day Tripper” as your mind seems to wander in and out of focus more times than our first 1953 black and white telly!
As technical traders, we trade our charts using technical analysis of PRICE. Nothing else.
We watch and study PRICE, nothing else, whether it be on a price bar or a candle. There is also a very important time element but because our MT4 charts are “automatic” and logarithmic in scale, we cannot perform time element analysis and studies. In any event, we have enough on our plate trying to follow PRICE!
We do not care or need to know why PRICE did what it did from a funny mentals perspective.
We DO need to know WHO is in CONTROL of that price bar. We DO need to know the MARKET SENTIMENT at all times. We do not need to know the funny mentals of why?
This is ALL we need to know as technical traders.
Let’s do a quick example on USDJPY:
At this point in time, Tuesday, October 06, 2009 at 12:30pm NY time:
Market sentiment is BEARISH
Sellers are still IN CONTROL
Worker and BOSS trend is DOWN
We do not care what caused this to happen or why?
If we did, how would this help us as technical traders?
The danger of “knowing” this or “listening to the talking heads” is that on your sub conscious level, your thinking, and therefore trading direction, has already been “programmed” into you.
Always keep an OPEN mind
Do NOT marry your trades – be ready to DUMP her as soon as she gets “grumpy”
5 Oct 2009
gbpjpy Sun night spreads
Not the strongest jpy cross to long really but on Sun night this pair was higher than the rest and my broker gave wider spreads on the 'exotics' of cadyen and nzdyen. It seems the spreads are very wide on Sun evenings for some reason? Must be lack of liquidity? One to remember for the future. Patience would have been better here too - wait for a SR level to be penetrated and tested with a HL rather than rushing in on the activation of the hammer. In the back of my mind I said to myself that 'I bet this finishes as BarbWire today when Europe pushes it up and the US fades that move in the afternoon!' Hey presto - maybe listen to gut instinct once in a while??!!
4 Oct 2009
Weekly Analysis 4 Oct 09
Lt Sweet Crude Oct Fut – Boss chart now bearish. Major Up TL has been broken and tested from underneath after a double top. Last weeks BEEB still in play and this week we have a bullish IB. PA still under big boss 20ema but this is flat. PA closed above Boss 20ema. Wait for break of boss IB before entry. Short target of 59.88, long target of 72.00. Neutral.
Nat Gas – Big boss chart shows large BUOB. Lot of move could be short covering. Boss chart now bullish after major down TL break. Boss hanging-man candle did not break highs of previous week but did test the BO from the last high of the up trend. Long only
Gold – Big boss bullish, boss still bullish with weekly IB at key $1000 level. As with oil wait for break of the IB but favour long. Upside tgt of 1033, short target of 970 (wedge BO top line). Neutral.
DowJones Sep Fut -(YMZ9) – Major Up TL still intact although we have had a smaller TL break. Last low of the UP TL has not been broken and with Crispen Odey (Hedge fund chairman) saying buy all QE shares until QE stops, it's a LONG ONLY chart buying pullbacks to the 20 ema.
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Worker TL break after a double top and we have broken the woker 20ema. Worker gives hammer looking candle. Boss chart still above major up TL and both Mas. No lower-highs yet so buy all pullbacks. Long only
Cable – Boss chart is bearish after the S Star a few weeks back and the M2S (Lower high short near the ema). This week gives a doji/spinning top. Shows indecision. PA retraced back to 50% fib from last swing low-high. Worker chart in BarbWire with conflicting dojis. Wait for next lower high near down TL or ema before short again. Short bias.
Gbpyen. - Up TL broken some weeks back. Boss chart still bearish after 2 pushes down after a double top. Last week gives doji/hammer looking bar right off the BO test of the last high of the downtrend. Also at 50% fib retrace from extreme low to high and 61% from top of first wave to top. Worker chart gives us two hammer last week with a higher low. PA below all Mas so really an ATM trade to major SR at 148.95. Long for ATM to next SR level only.
Gbpchf – Major up TL's broken. Boss chart still bearish but we have had 2 pushes down resulting in a spinning top at SR level. Worker gives Barbwire where we have conflicting Hammer/shooting star. Gbpyen could drive this up but over all NEUTRAL.
Eurusd – Broken out of triangle BUT has rejected 61% fib. Bear candle last week still under 61% fib. Tested wedge BO though and up TL still intact. 3 minor pushes down on the worker chart ending in a spinning top. ATM trade at least to test the 1.47 level. Long only unless PA trades back into wedge then we could have a failed wedge-BO trade.
Audusd – Major up TL is still intact on boss with bullish PA. Boss gives a long wicked BEEB and BEOB. Worker shows us a BEEB 2 days ago and Fri closed with a hammer looking candle but does show an expanding triangle at the top, so not really a bull-flag. Would like to see a double top as the bulls have one last chance of continuing, so Neutral with a bear bias. Too risky for longs here after such a long retrace back to old highs.
Usdchf – Boss has broken thru major levels and up TL's . Boss gives us a BUEB right back at the 76% retrace! Deep one that. Worker has a small up trend but Fri gave us a BEEB. So, no trade here until down TL broken.
Usdcad – Bearish PA BUT we have had a LOWER LOW after a down TL break; Boss shows an IB (bearish) and these usually trade in the direction of the IB. Worker gives us a with trend shooting star but PA is in the 20/50 trap. Leaning toward long but wait for resolution of BARB WIRE at this big 1.0781 level.
USDYEN – Major down TL's have been broken and PA is very bearish. Boss Hammer at the base of this bear channel. Had 2 pushes down (just) and hammer gives us a HL from the low back in Jan 09. Worker the same as Gbpyen. 2 bullish hammers. ATM long to next SR at 91 at least.
Euryen – Major UP TL has been broken and tested from underneath. Last boss candle was a hammer but last week gave a loose IB that has been broken to the upside. Still long only as with other yen pairs. Need to find strongest yen pair to trade.
Eurgbp – Major UP Trend is still intact with minor DOWN TL now broken and poss tested. Boss gives us a bear IB. Worker gives text-book shooting star. Risky counter-trend short back to 0.9020 level. Sit this out.
Eurnzd – Boss minor down trend still intact and now we have the MAJOR up tl broken. Boss hammer of sorts. - Poss test now of the broken TL from underneath so wait for PA retrace. No trade here against such a strong trend down.
Gbpcad – Messy. Last week gave us a BEEB again. Still in a down Trend. Major up TL's have been broken. Wait for test of broken TL. No trade here.
Nzdusd – Boss is still in major UP trend. Broken thru 61% Fib retrace could be targeting the 77% retrace at 0.7386? Major UP TL's still intact. Looks too long to get in so. Worker gives us a S Star but then Fri closed with a spinning top. Sit this one out as last week. Long above worker S Star high only
Audyen – Boss chart in major Barb Wire, still – had a major up TL break then a higher high. Fallen back from this high and given a BEEB but still above UP TL. Worker gives us a hammer but after a BEOB and under 2nd major up TL. RR not good enough for a long as SR at 78.93 is too close. Neutral.
EurCad – Had one major UP TL break but the second one is holding so far after the hammer a few weeks back. Boss gives us a BEOB. All Mas are flat but worker gives a S Star. Stand aside on this one as RR on S Star would not be good enough to short due to proximity of the daily Up TL.
GbpAud – Boss chart in a major downtrend but last weeks close shows a bullish hammer with body inside the last down bar and after 2 pushes down from the BEEB 13 weeks ago. Worker gives us a BUEB but we have not had a TL break so I would only imagine this getting as far as the 20ema at 1.8724 ish. Wait for down TL break and retest of hammer before going LONG.
CadJpy – Boss up TL still intact (just) after two tests. Worker shows 2 hammers much as the other yen pairs right off the Up TL and SR at 81.91. Long wit major up trend but counter the immediate down trend. At 50% retrace from last swing low hammer to high after double top and TL breaks. Long only
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