20 Dec 2009

Weekly Analysis - WE 26 Dec 09

Lt Sweet Crude Feb Fut – Monthly chart shows an IB last month right at the 38% Fib retrace from high to low combined with the SR level at 76.90ish. Boss chart shows an IB within the previous week's bear bar. The Bull bar has bounced off the descending TL from the 147 highs though and the 70.50 level. Still trapped below Mas. Worker shows a S Star off the underside of that TL and the same level as the last high on the up trend. Short below 73.41, T1 @ 72.00 and T2 @ 67.00. **

Nat Gas (NGF0)– B-Boss chart shows a bear IB(inverted hammer type) last month inside the previous doji. Boss chart broke above the 5.29 level and the 20MA from the monthly. If penetrated look for the break and then test of that break to go long with TP1 at 6.075 SR level and TP2 7.030. Long on Pullbacks

Gold – Monthly Bull Candle breaking old highs. Boss 3 weeks ago shows a Shooting Star with bear close. No fib /SR confluence up here other than historic high. 20 ema, daily now pointing south. This week shows a dragonfly doji off the 1111 level. Expect a test of the high after a TL break so would look to get long on bullish worker PA as we have had 2 pushes down from the top to the 50sma. Long on break of worker PA on Fri above 1120, T1 @ 1227 again. Short if the base of IB goes at 1093 with T1 @ 1063 and T2 @ 1033.

DowJones Mar Fut -(YMH0) – Monthly bull candle in Nov but into high to low 50% retrace. PA still going up but last week gave us a BEOB. Worker shows a Doji and with no significant TL break this is still buy on pullbacks. Expect a trend channel overshoot before any shorts as well. The daily 50sma had been solid support on the way up and I'd like to see that broken before any shorts too. Neutral.

FTSE Mar Fut (FFIH0)– Big Boss and boss are still in a bull trend but last week's close was another bear close on the 5100 level. Daily shows a spinning top – Neutral as we have no TL breaks and no bull action to get long either.

Cable – Big Boss shows a S Star, boss shows another S Star 3 weeks ago. PA is rangebound with the worker showing a spinning top/doji as well. If gold bulls then usd will fall and this will go up but with no action either way there are better pairs out there to trade. Neutral.

Gbpyen. - B Boss is in a downtrend. Recent action looks like a longer TF bear flag. Rule of 4 not in effect on B Boss yet so short below last low at 138.76. Boss shows a bull IB last week. A break above 147.00 would be bullish as it would confirm a 2nd HL from the hammer a few weeks ago. Long above 147.00 as not interested short into a triple bottom.

Gbpchf – B Boss bear IB in Nov. Weekly bull candle off a worker rising TL but into major downtrend line. Poss LH above falling TL on boss but would need a break of 1.6686 to confirm that. PA has held above that falling TL and the worker 20ema has provided support too. Long above 1.7033 counter trend and with trend would be short below 1.6760.

Eurusd – B Boss bull candle that bounced off the 78% Fib retrace from H to Low. Boss shows a another bear candle that is on the 20ema and below the last low of the uptrend. We have broken the rising TL too, but I'd still expect a HH or LH test before a trend change as the rise has been so strong. Boss has had 3 major downtrend candles now so would expect some sort of retrace possibly? Worker shows a doji so there could be a retrace but after such a major strong TL break I would like to see a test of the old extreme before getting short again. Look for bull action back into old trend or short PA to continue without a test.

Audusd – Monthly still in Up trend but bounced off the 261% Fib projection from the low to the first up swing from the lows. Boss looks toppy with a shooting star 2 week's ago within the previous week's body. Last week shows a bear bar that bounced off the lows and boss 20ema. Worker shows a shooting star but only off the 20ema which is not a chance to long but an offer to close up the stops. Short stops above the SR at 0.9020

Usdchf – Double bottom is in as we have 3 bull candles, last weeks breaking the last high of the downtrend and Boss 20ema. Wait for a pullback to the broken SR level at 1.0340 and look for PA to get LONG. This also needs a good test after such a strong downtrend.

Usdcad – B Boss Hammer still the controlling candle from Oct. Boss bear legs are getting much shorter with less momentum. Last pushes down have been weak and last week shows a bull spinning top at the 61% retrace from Low to high. Long only above 1.0700 as last week.

Usdyen – B Boss gives a BUEB off the 86.50 SR level and looks like a major double bottom. Boss shows BUOB. Worker on Fri had a huge stop run on the longs and then close out on the highs. Long above 91.00 **

Euryen – Big Boss still in uptrend but in middle of charts range. Boss still rangebound; Last week shows bear hammer. I guess this would follow usdyen so side with long back to top of range at 137.92 level. Break of that could see 147.35. Bear break of 126.68 could target lows again at 111.10! Long above hammer at 131.00 with T1 @ top of range at 137.00. **

Eurgbp – Big Boss bull body IB last month. 3rd Boss bear close but still within the candle from 2 weeks ago but not breaking the lows of the hammer 5 week' ago. Still in major uptrend so look for PA to get long back with underlying trend. Poss bottom forming if we get a close above IB at .8924 . Neutral this week.

Eurnzd – Big Boss shows a Nov bull candle but it looks like a bear flag in a longer term down move. Bear break of IB on the Boss chart to the small rising TL on the daily 2 weeks ago. Worker in BarbWire below the worker 50sma. Wait for bull PASR to get long above 2.036. **

Gbpcad – B Boss still scream down. Boss bond-hammer in free space with this week giving a doji IB. Worker shows a BUOB off minor SR leve at 1.7072. Neutral.

Nzdusd – Monthly Shooter still in play. Worker shows an bear IB inside the candle of 3 weeks ago. Short below 0.7020 which is below the Boss 20 ema. Look for short PASR near the down TL for possible short.

Audyen – B Boss bear IB last month. Boss is testing the broken UP TL from underneath and last week bear closed below that TL. Boss shows a bond shooter and poss HL but after a TL break I'm happy to short below 80.70, TP1 at 78.82 and TP2 75.81. but also long above 80.75 if bond hammer activates.

EurCad – Mas all flat on Monthly and boss poss dbl top bear flag. Rangebound but worker still below dbl top bear flag. Wait for market to show hand. Boss gave us bear close last week but came off lows. Neutral.

GbpAud – Monthly hammer on trend channel overshoot low after 2 pushes down. Boss hammer of after 3 pushes down, but with no significant TL break this is still short only on pullbacks. Long above hammer 1.8554.

CadJpy – Monthly bull candle with boss bull candle too. Could be a test of the underside of the broken TL. Await resolution on the worker with decent PA before anything. Worker on Fri shows a BUOB off the Boss 50sma as with other Yen pairs. Long above 85.28 with T1 @ 86.00 and t2 @ 91.00.

NzdJpy - Monthly Shooter – Boss hanging man IB again within previous 2 weeks. Worker hammer so Long above 64.55 T1 @ 66.16 and T2 @ 69.56.

AudNzd – Boss bear candle off the major SR at 1.2455 level and with the rising MA's. Long above worker BUOB at 1.2541.