7 Dec 2009

Long Gold on trend pullback.


Good hammer off the 20ema after a pull back and TL break. Expect at least a test of the trend's extreme back up at the high.

Edit - OK this was a pause bar and not an entry hammer- hammers off the 20ema don't work. Only take at SR levels with good confluence. This was a classic trapped traders' fakout. Looking for 2 pushes down now but would still expect a test of that high due to the strong momentum of the up move previosuly

Nat Gas update

Nat Gas worker is trading into the Boss BEEB. I'll wait for a HH before any longs here.

Weekly Analysis - WE 11 Dec 09

Lt Sweet Crude Dec Fut – Monthly chart shows an IB last month right at the 38% Fib retrace from high to low combined with the SR level at 76.90ish. Boss chart shows 7 dojis in a row but above the major down trend line. Looks like price being held by the B-Boss 50sma. Could be a bull flag on the longer Tfs so wait for a breakout and a HL or LH etc. Neutral.

Nat Gas – B-Boss chart shows a bear IB(inverted hammer type) last month inside the previous doji. Boss chart on line chart looks like a H&S pattern and recent minor up TL broken. Short below 4.413 SR and long above the 5.29 SR and last high. Worker on Fri shows a BUOB but wait for a HL before any longs.

Gold – Monthly Bull Candle breaking old highs. Boss shows a Shooting Star with bear close. No fib /SR confluence up here other than historic high. Short below 1140 but wait for a retest of break for better RR ratio.

DowJones Dec Fut -(YMZ9) – Monthly bull candle in Nov but into high to low 50% retrace. PA still rising so long only until we get a wedge channel overshoot or other bearish action such as a strong TL break.

FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Big Bossand boss are still in a bull trend but last week's close was another spinning top on the 5300 level. Worker shows a 3 day expanding triangle with a BEOB and shooting star – short below the TL and 20 ema at 5252.

Cable – Big Boss shows a S Star, boss shows another S Star so short only below last low at 1.6200.

Gbpyen. - B Boss is in a downtrend. Recent action looks like a longer TF bear flag. Rule of 4 not in effect on B Boss yet so short below last low at 138.76. Look out for worker rejecting the SR level at 149.00.

Gbpchf – B Boss bear IB in Nov. Weekly shooting star at top of bear flag and 20/50 clustered MAs. Boss is in a clear downtrend. Short below 1.6750.

Eurusd – B Boss bull candle that bounced off the 78% Fib retrace from H to Low. Boss shows a bear candle. Short below 1.4780 after double top on worker.

Audusd – Monthly still in Up trend but bounced off the 261% Fib projection from the low to the first up swing from the lows. Boss looks toppy with a shooting star last week within the previous week's body. Worker shows small shooting star too with high bouncing off the underside of the broken up TL. Short below .9097.

Usdchf – Poss double bottom forming on B Boss chart, but would like to see a significant HL before long and a close above the SR at 1.0250 before long – Neutral.


Usdcad – B Boss Hammer still the controlling candle from Oct. Boss IB (bull) was broken low but could be a fakeout. PA Still under 20ema so If high of last 2 weeks ago is broken then we have a confirmed HL. Close above 1.0780 would be bullish.

USDYEN – B Boss gives a BUEB off the 86.50 SR level and looks like a major double bottom. Boss shows a large bull candle on strong momentum breaking the recent minor down TL. Will wait for a retrace here to test the TL break but looking for longs only now. NFP effected this by very strong numbers which could cause the Feds to hike USD rates. Could be $ +ve but Eq -ve!

Euryen – Big Boss still in uptrend but in middle of charts range. Boss still rangebound; Bull close last week. On good SR level so if 131.70 goes – short but if 137.92 is broken and tested long.

Eurgbp – Big Boss bull body IB last month. Boss bear close but still within the candle from previous week. Still above major UP TL so but worker gives a BEEB so could target the major UP TL. Wait for that battle to be won before acting and look for +ve PA at that TL to get long.

Eurnzd – Big Boss shows a Nov bull candle but it looks like a bear flag in a longer term down move. Worker shows an IB after the recent down trendline break so I'd expect a test of that BO with a HL or LL. Wait for confirmation but siding with long. PA retraced back to 61% from recent swing low to high so long above 2.090.

Gbpcad – B Boss still scream down. Big Boss bear IB. Worker gapped down last week into a spinning top. Worker in the 20/50 ma trap. Neutral.

Nzdusd – Monthly Shooter still in play. Worker shows an IB/S Star candle so short below 0.7100.

Audyen – B Boss bear IB last month. Boss is testing the broken UP TL from underneath but worker had 5 bull candle in a row. Bulls will not give up easy so wait for a test and -ve PA before considering any shorts.

EurCad – Mas all flat on Monthly and boss poss dbl top bear flag. Rangebound but worker still below dbl top bear flag. Wait for market to show hand. Boss gave us an IB last week. Wait for IB break.

GbpAud – Monthly hammer on trend channel overshoot low after 2 pushes down. Boss hammer of sorts but with no significant TL break this is still short only on pullbacks.

CadJpy – Monthly bull candle with boss bull candle too. Could be a test of the underside of the broken TL. Await resolution on the worker with decent PA before anything. Neutral.

NzdJpy - Monthly Shooter – Boss bull candle into the B Boss 20ema. Worker TL broken and tested. Worker on down TL so expect a bear day on Mon unless PA punches through and follows other yen pairs up with usdyen. Neutral