30 Dec 2009
20 Dec 2009
Weekly Analysis - WE 26 Dec 09
Lt Sweet Crude Feb Fut – Monthly chart shows an IB last month right at the 38% Fib retrace from high to low combined with the SR level at 76.90ish. Boss chart shows an IB within the previous week's bear bar. The Bull bar has bounced off the descending TL from the 147 highs though and the 70.50 level. Still trapped below Mas. Worker shows a S Star off the underside of that TL and the same level as the last high on the up trend. Short below 73.41, T1 @ 72.00 and T2 @ 67.00. **
Nat Gas (NGF0)– B-Boss chart shows a bear IB(inverted hammer type) last month inside the previous doji. Boss chart broke above the 5.29 level and the 20MA from the monthly. If penetrated look for the break and then test of that break to go long with TP1 at 6.075 SR level and TP2 7.030. Long on Pullbacks
Gold – Monthly Bull Candle breaking old highs. Boss 3 weeks ago shows a Shooting Star with bear close. No fib /SR confluence up here other than historic high. 20 ema, daily now pointing south. This week shows a dragonfly doji off the 1111 level. Expect a test of the high after a TL break so would look to get long on bullish worker PA as we have had 2 pushes down from the top to the 50sma. Long on break of worker PA on Fri above 1120, T1 @ 1227 again. Short if the base of IB goes at 1093 with T1 @ 1063 and T2 @ 1033.
DowJones Mar Fut -(YMH0) – Monthly bull candle in Nov but into high to low 50% retrace. PA still going up but last week gave us a BEOB. Worker shows a Doji and with no significant TL break this is still buy on pullbacks. Expect a trend channel overshoot before any shorts as well. The daily 50sma had been solid support on the way up and I'd like to see that broken before any shorts too. Neutral.
FTSE Mar Fut (FFIH0)– Big Boss and boss are still in a bull trend but last week's close was another bear close on the 5100 level. Daily shows a spinning top – Neutral as we have no TL breaks and no bull action to get long either.
Cable – Big Boss shows a S Star, boss shows another S Star 3 weeks ago. PA is rangebound with the worker showing a spinning top/doji as well. If gold bulls then usd will fall and this will go up but with no action either way there are better pairs out there to trade. Neutral.
Gbpyen. - B Boss is in a downtrend. Recent action looks like a longer TF bear flag. Rule of 4 not in effect on B Boss yet so short below last low at 138.76. Boss shows a bull IB last week. A break above 147.00 would be bullish as it would confirm a 2nd HL from the hammer a few weeks ago. Long above 147.00 as not interested short into a triple bottom.
Gbpchf – B Boss bear IB in Nov. Weekly bull candle off a worker rising TL but into major downtrend line. Poss LH above falling TL on boss but would need a break of 1.6686 to confirm that. PA has held above that falling TL and the worker 20ema has provided support too. Long above 1.7033 counter trend and with trend would be short below 1.6760.
Eurusd – B Boss bull candle that bounced off the 78% Fib retrace from H to Low. Boss shows a another bear candle that is on the 20ema and below the last low of the uptrend. We have broken the rising TL too, but I'd still expect a HH or LH test before a trend change as the rise has been so strong. Boss has had 3 major downtrend candles now so would expect some sort of retrace possibly? Worker shows a doji so there could be a retrace but after such a major strong TL break I would like to see a test of the old extreme before getting short again. Look for bull action back into old trend or short PA to continue without a test.
Audusd – Monthly still in Up trend but bounced off the 261% Fib projection from the low to the first up swing from the lows. Boss looks toppy with a shooting star 2 week's ago within the previous week's body. Last week shows a bear bar that bounced off the lows and boss 20ema. Worker shows a shooting star but only off the 20ema which is not a chance to long but an offer to close up the stops. Short stops above the SR at 0.9020
Usdchf – Double bottom is in as we have 3 bull candles, last weeks breaking the last high of the downtrend and Boss 20ema. Wait for a pullback to the broken SR level at 1.0340 and look for PA to get LONG. This also needs a good test after such a strong downtrend.
Usdcad – B Boss Hammer still the controlling candle from Oct. Boss bear legs are getting much shorter with less momentum. Last pushes down have been weak and last week shows a bull spinning top at the 61% retrace from Low to high. Long only above 1.0700 as last week.
Usdyen – B Boss gives a BUEB off the 86.50 SR level and looks like a major double bottom. Boss shows BUOB. Worker on Fri had a huge stop run on the longs and then close out on the highs. Long above 91.00 **
Euryen – Big Boss still in uptrend but in middle of charts range. Boss still rangebound; Last week shows bear hammer. I guess this would follow usdyen so side with long back to top of range at 137.92 level. Break of that could see 147.35. Bear break of 126.68 could target lows again at 111.10! Long above hammer at 131.00 with T1 @ top of range at 137.00. **
Eurgbp – Big Boss bull body IB last month. 3rd Boss bear close but still within the candle from 2 weeks ago but not breaking the lows of the hammer 5 week' ago. Still in major uptrend so look for PA to get long back with underlying trend. Poss bottom forming if we get a close above IB at .8924 . Neutral this week.
Eurnzd – Big Boss shows a Nov bull candle but it looks like a bear flag in a longer term down move. Bear break of IB on the Boss chart to the small rising TL on the daily 2 weeks ago. Worker in BarbWire below the worker 50sma. Wait for bull PASR to get long above 2.036. **
Gbpcad – B Boss still scream down. Boss bond-hammer in free space with this week giving a doji IB. Worker shows a BUOB off minor SR leve at 1.7072. Neutral.
Nzdusd – Monthly Shooter still in play. Worker shows an bear IB inside the candle of 3 weeks ago. Short below 0.7020 which is below the Boss 20 ema. Look for short PASR near the down TL for possible short.
Audyen – B Boss bear IB last month. Boss is testing the broken UP TL from underneath and last week bear closed below that TL. Boss shows a bond shooter and poss HL but after a TL break I'm happy to short below 80.70, TP1 at 78.82 and TP2 75.81. but also long above 80.75 if bond hammer activates.
EurCad – Mas all flat on Monthly and boss poss dbl top bear flag. Rangebound but worker still below dbl top bear flag. Wait for market to show hand. Boss gave us bear close last week but came off lows. Neutral.
GbpAud – Monthly hammer on trend channel overshoot low after 2 pushes down. Boss hammer of after 3 pushes down, but with no significant TL break this is still short only on pullbacks. Long above hammer 1.8554.
CadJpy – Monthly bull candle with boss bull candle too. Could be a test of the underside of the broken TL. Await resolution on the worker with decent PA before anything. Worker on Fri shows a BUOB off the Boss 50sma as with other Yen pairs. Long above 85.28 with T1 @ 86.00 and t2 @ 91.00.
NzdJpy - Monthly Shooter – Boss hanging man IB again within previous 2 weeks. Worker hammer so Long above 64.55 T1 @ 66.16 and T2 @ 69.56.
AudNzd – Boss bear candle off the major SR at 1.2455 level and with the rising MA's. Long above worker BUOB at 1.2541.
Nat Gas (NGF0)– B-Boss chart shows a bear IB(inverted hammer type) last month inside the previous doji. Boss chart broke above the 5.29 level and the 20MA from the monthly. If penetrated look for the break and then test of that break to go long with TP1 at 6.075 SR level and TP2 7.030. Long on Pullbacks
Gold – Monthly Bull Candle breaking old highs. Boss 3 weeks ago shows a Shooting Star with bear close. No fib /SR confluence up here other than historic high. 20 ema, daily now pointing south. This week shows a dragonfly doji off the 1111 level. Expect a test of the high after a TL break so would look to get long on bullish worker PA as we have had 2 pushes down from the top to the 50sma. Long on break of worker PA on Fri above 1120, T1 @ 1227 again. Short if the base of IB goes at 1093 with T1 @ 1063 and T2 @ 1033.
DowJones Mar Fut -(YMH0) – Monthly bull candle in Nov but into high to low 50% retrace. PA still going up but last week gave us a BEOB. Worker shows a Doji and with no significant TL break this is still buy on pullbacks. Expect a trend channel overshoot before any shorts as well. The daily 50sma had been solid support on the way up and I'd like to see that broken before any shorts too. Neutral.
FTSE Mar Fut (FFIH0)– Big Boss and boss are still in a bull trend but last week's close was another bear close on the 5100 level. Daily shows a spinning top – Neutral as we have no TL breaks and no bull action to get long either.
Cable – Big Boss shows a S Star, boss shows another S Star 3 weeks ago. PA is rangebound with the worker showing a spinning top/doji as well. If gold bulls then usd will fall and this will go up but with no action either way there are better pairs out there to trade. Neutral.
Gbpyen. - B Boss is in a downtrend. Recent action looks like a longer TF bear flag. Rule of 4 not in effect on B Boss yet so short below last low at 138.76. Boss shows a bull IB last week. A break above 147.00 would be bullish as it would confirm a 2nd HL from the hammer a few weeks ago. Long above 147.00 as not interested short into a triple bottom.
Gbpchf – B Boss bear IB in Nov. Weekly bull candle off a worker rising TL but into major downtrend line. Poss LH above falling TL on boss but would need a break of 1.6686 to confirm that. PA has held above that falling TL and the worker 20ema has provided support too. Long above 1.7033 counter trend and with trend would be short below 1.6760.
Eurusd – B Boss bull candle that bounced off the 78% Fib retrace from H to Low. Boss shows a another bear candle that is on the 20ema and below the last low of the uptrend. We have broken the rising TL too, but I'd still expect a HH or LH test before a trend change as the rise has been so strong. Boss has had 3 major downtrend candles now so would expect some sort of retrace possibly? Worker shows a doji so there could be a retrace but after such a major strong TL break I would like to see a test of the old extreme before getting short again. Look for bull action back into old trend or short PA to continue without a test.
Audusd – Monthly still in Up trend but bounced off the 261% Fib projection from the low to the first up swing from the lows. Boss looks toppy with a shooting star 2 week's ago within the previous week's body. Last week shows a bear bar that bounced off the lows and boss 20ema. Worker shows a shooting star but only off the 20ema which is not a chance to long but an offer to close up the stops. Short stops above the SR at 0.9020
Usdchf – Double bottom is in as we have 3 bull candles, last weeks breaking the last high of the downtrend and Boss 20ema. Wait for a pullback to the broken SR level at 1.0340 and look for PA to get LONG. This also needs a good test after such a strong downtrend.
Usdcad – B Boss Hammer still the controlling candle from Oct. Boss bear legs are getting much shorter with less momentum. Last pushes down have been weak and last week shows a bull spinning top at the 61% retrace from Low to high. Long only above 1.0700 as last week.
Usdyen – B Boss gives a BUEB off the 86.50 SR level and looks like a major double bottom. Boss shows BUOB. Worker on Fri had a huge stop run on the longs and then close out on the highs. Long above 91.00 **
Euryen – Big Boss still in uptrend but in middle of charts range. Boss still rangebound; Last week shows bear hammer. I guess this would follow usdyen so side with long back to top of range at 137.92 level. Break of that could see 147.35. Bear break of 126.68 could target lows again at 111.10! Long above hammer at 131.00 with T1 @ top of range at 137.00. **
Eurgbp – Big Boss bull body IB last month. 3rd Boss bear close but still within the candle from 2 weeks ago but not breaking the lows of the hammer 5 week' ago. Still in major uptrend so look for PA to get long back with underlying trend. Poss bottom forming if we get a close above IB at .8924 . Neutral this week.
Eurnzd – Big Boss shows a Nov bull candle but it looks like a bear flag in a longer term down move. Bear break of IB on the Boss chart to the small rising TL on the daily 2 weeks ago. Worker in BarbWire below the worker 50sma. Wait for bull PASR to get long above 2.036. **
Gbpcad – B Boss still scream down. Boss bond-hammer in free space with this week giving a doji IB. Worker shows a BUOB off minor SR leve at 1.7072. Neutral.
Nzdusd – Monthly Shooter still in play. Worker shows an bear IB inside the candle of 3 weeks ago. Short below 0.7020 which is below the Boss 20 ema. Look for short PASR near the down TL for possible short.
Audyen – B Boss bear IB last month. Boss is testing the broken UP TL from underneath and last week bear closed below that TL. Boss shows a bond shooter and poss HL but after a TL break I'm happy to short below 80.70, TP1 at 78.82 and TP2 75.81. but also long above 80.75 if bond hammer activates.
EurCad – Mas all flat on Monthly and boss poss dbl top bear flag. Rangebound but worker still below dbl top bear flag. Wait for market to show hand. Boss gave us bear close last week but came off lows. Neutral.
GbpAud – Monthly hammer on trend channel overshoot low after 2 pushes down. Boss hammer of after 3 pushes down, but with no significant TL break this is still short only on pullbacks. Long above hammer 1.8554.
CadJpy – Monthly bull candle with boss bull candle too. Could be a test of the underside of the broken TL. Await resolution on the worker with decent PA before anything. Worker on Fri shows a BUOB off the Boss 50sma as with other Yen pairs. Long above 85.28 with T1 @ 86.00 and t2 @ 91.00.
NzdJpy - Monthly Shooter – Boss hanging man IB again within previous 2 weeks. Worker hammer so Long above 64.55 T1 @ 66.16 and T2 @ 69.56.
AudNzd – Boss bear candle off the major SR at 1.2455 level and with the rising MA's. Long above worker BUOB at 1.2541.
13 Dec 2009
Weekly Analysis - WE 20 Dec 09
Lt Sweet Crude Jan Fut – Monthly chart shows an IB last month right at the 38% Fib retrace from high to low combined with the SR level at 76.90ish. Boss chart shows 7 dojis in a row and last week broke free to the downside at the junctre of the major down TL. Short only with targets of 67.00 and 59.90. Short only BUT expect a restest of the trend extreme after such a strong TL being broken.
Nat Gas – B-Boss chart shows a bear IB(inverted hammer type) last month inside the previous doji. Boss chart shows a bull candle-body IB but the wick did extend higher. A break of the monthly 20ema would be bullish and the SR level at 5.29. If penetrated look for the break and then test of that break to go long with TP at 6.075 SR level and TP2 7.030. Long above 5.29.
Gold – Monthly Bull Candle breaking old highs. Boss 2 weeks ago shows a Shooting Star with bear close. No fib /SR confluence up here other than historic high. 20 ema, daily now pointing south. Short below 1140 but wait for a retest of break for better RR ratio. Next target 1063 minor and 1033 major.
DowJones Dec Fut -(YMZ9) – Monthly bull candle in Nov but into high to low 50% retrace. PA still rising so long only until we get a wedge channel overshoot or other bearish action such as a strong TL break. PA now getting smaller and narrower – could be a strong break soon. With all the stops expected above the PA I'd expect a spike to activate the shorts then a short squeeze back up to new highs!
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Big Boss and boss are still in a bull trend but last week's close was another doji on the 5300 level. Daily shows a Shooting Star and H2 short– short below the TL, Shooting Star and 20 ema at 5240.
Cable – Big Boss shows a S Star, boss shows another S Star 2 weeks ago short only below last low at 1.6200. Looks like a rounded top reversal. Daily chart shows 3 spinning tops in a row on the 1.6262 SR level as base of range. Wait for a worker H2/H3 before short.
Gbpyen. - B Boss is in a downtrend. Recent action looks like a longer TF bear flag. Rule of 4 not in effect on B Boss yet so short below last low at 138.76. Worker rejected the SR level at 149.00 as predicted. Last week gives a bear IB but worker looks like a dbl bottom and test. Long above the SR and IB at 149.00 and short below 140.62 back with major underlying trend.
Gbpchf – B Boss bear IB in Nov. Weekly bull candle off a worker rising TL but into major downtrend line. Limit Sell orders at 1.6900 to go short with major trend with tgts of 1.6400 and 1.6300 below that.
Eurusd – B Boss bull candle that bounced off the 78% Fib retrace from H to Low. Boss shows a another bear candle that is on the 20ema and below the last low of the uptrend. We have broken the rising TL too, but I'd expect a HH or LH test before a trend change as the rise has been so strong. Wait for a H2 near the ema for example before any shorts or look for long action at 1.4528 to trade with the trend into that HH or LH test of the old trend extreme.
Audusd – Monthly still in Up trend but bounced off the 261% Fib projection from the low to the first up swing from the lows. Boss looks toppy with a shooting star last week within the previous week's body. Last week shows a doji closing where it opened. Worker shows a poss broken TL test and IB so short below 0.9085, tgts of 0.8730 and 0.8362.
Usdchf – Double bottom could be in as we have 2 bull candles, last weeks breaking the last high of the downtrend BUT still below the 20ema. Wait for a pullback to the broken SR level at 1.0250 and look for PA to get LONG. This also needs a good test after such a strong downtrend.
Usdcad – B Boss Hammer still the controlling candle from Oct. Boss bear legs are getting much shorter with less momentum. Last pushes down have been weak and last week shows a bull spinning top at the 61% retrace from Low to high. Long only above 1.0700.
Usdyen – B Boss gives a BUEB off the 86.50 SR level and looks like a major double bottom. Boss shows a bear IB after a worker test of the broken down TL. Trend is still down and with no HH/HLs to base new trend on, NEUTRAL, but siding with a long break above the IB at 91.25 above the 20ema and SR level.
Euryen – Big Boss still in uptrend but in middle of charts range. Boss still rangebound; Last week shows bear IB. I guess this would follow usdyen so side with long back to top of range at 137.92 level. Break of that could see 147.35. Bear break of 126.68 could target lows again at 111.10! Neutral this week.
Eurgbp – Big Boss bull body IB last month. 2nd Boss bear close but still within the candle from 2 weeks ago. Still in major uptrend so look for PA to get long back with underlying trend at the rising TL circa 0.8950 ish .
Eurnzd – Big Boss shows a Nov bull candle but it looks like a bear flag in a longer term down move. Bear break of IB on the Boss chart to the small rising TL on the daily. Long above 2.036 targets of 2.1085 and above. Break of small rising TL would be back with major down trend, initial targets of 1.9850. Wait for PA to show the way.
Gbpcad – B Boss still scream down. Boss bond-hammer in free space. Worker shows a BUOB off minor SR leve at 1.7072. Long above 1.7320.
Nzdusd – Monthly Shooter still in play. Worker shows an IB inside the candle of 2 weeks ago. Short below 0.7020.
Audyen – B Boss bear IB last month. Boss is testing the broken UP TL from underneath and last week bear closed below that TL. Daily shows a bond shooter but after a TL break I'm happy to short below 80.70, TP1 at 78.82 and TP2 75.81.
EurCad – Mas all flat on Monthly and boss poss dbl top bear flag. Rangebound but worker still below dbl top bear flag. Wait for market to show hand. Boss gave us bear close last week but came off lows. Neutral.
GbpAud – Monthly hammer on trend channel overshoot low after 2 pushes down. Boss hammer of after 3 pushes down, but with no significant TL break this is still short only on pullbacks. Long above hammer 1.8554.
CadJpy – Monthly bull candle with boss bull candle too. Could be a test of the underside of the broken TL. Await resolution on the worker with decent PA before anything. This pair is going down not up. Or could be in a channel, short below 83.74, TP1 at 72.35.
NzdJpy - Monthly Shooter – Boss hanging man. Worker Shooter of sorts so short below Mas at 64.00
Nat Gas – B-Boss chart shows a bear IB(inverted hammer type) last month inside the previous doji. Boss chart shows a bull candle-body IB but the wick did extend higher. A break of the monthly 20ema would be bullish and the SR level at 5.29. If penetrated look for the break and then test of that break to go long with TP at 6.075 SR level and TP2 7.030. Long above 5.29.
Gold – Monthly Bull Candle breaking old highs. Boss 2 weeks ago shows a Shooting Star with bear close. No fib /SR confluence up here other than historic high. 20 ema, daily now pointing south. Short below 1140 but wait for a retest of break for better RR ratio. Next target 1063 minor and 1033 major.
DowJones Dec Fut -(YMZ9) – Monthly bull candle in Nov but into high to low 50% retrace. PA still rising so long only until we get a wedge channel overshoot or other bearish action such as a strong TL break. PA now getting smaller and narrower – could be a strong break soon. With all the stops expected above the PA I'd expect a spike to activate the shorts then a short squeeze back up to new highs!
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Big Boss and boss are still in a bull trend but last week's close was another doji on the 5300 level. Daily shows a Shooting Star and H2 short– short below the TL, Shooting Star and 20 ema at 5240.
Cable – Big Boss shows a S Star, boss shows another S Star 2 weeks ago short only below last low at 1.6200. Looks like a rounded top reversal. Daily chart shows 3 spinning tops in a row on the 1.6262 SR level as base of range. Wait for a worker H2/H3 before short.
Gbpyen. - B Boss is in a downtrend. Recent action looks like a longer TF bear flag. Rule of 4 not in effect on B Boss yet so short below last low at 138.76. Worker rejected the SR level at 149.00 as predicted. Last week gives a bear IB but worker looks like a dbl bottom and test. Long above the SR and IB at 149.00 and short below 140.62 back with major underlying trend.
Gbpchf – B Boss bear IB in Nov. Weekly bull candle off a worker rising TL but into major downtrend line. Limit Sell orders at 1.6900 to go short with major trend with tgts of 1.6400 and 1.6300 below that.
Eurusd – B Boss bull candle that bounced off the 78% Fib retrace from H to Low. Boss shows a another bear candle that is on the 20ema and below the last low of the uptrend. We have broken the rising TL too, but I'd expect a HH or LH test before a trend change as the rise has been so strong. Wait for a H2 near the ema for example before any shorts or look for long action at 1.4528 to trade with the trend into that HH or LH test of the old trend extreme.
Audusd – Monthly still in Up trend but bounced off the 261% Fib projection from the low to the first up swing from the lows. Boss looks toppy with a shooting star last week within the previous week's body. Last week shows a doji closing where it opened. Worker shows a poss broken TL test and IB so short below 0.9085, tgts of 0.8730 and 0.8362.
Usdchf – Double bottom could be in as we have 2 bull candles, last weeks breaking the last high of the downtrend BUT still below the 20ema. Wait for a pullback to the broken SR level at 1.0250 and look for PA to get LONG. This also needs a good test after such a strong downtrend.
Usdcad – B Boss Hammer still the controlling candle from Oct. Boss bear legs are getting much shorter with less momentum. Last pushes down have been weak and last week shows a bull spinning top at the 61% retrace from Low to high. Long only above 1.0700.
Usdyen – B Boss gives a BUEB off the 86.50 SR level and looks like a major double bottom. Boss shows a bear IB after a worker test of the broken down TL. Trend is still down and with no HH/HLs to base new trend on, NEUTRAL, but siding with a long break above the IB at 91.25 above the 20ema and SR level.
Euryen – Big Boss still in uptrend but in middle of charts range. Boss still rangebound; Last week shows bear IB. I guess this would follow usdyen so side with long back to top of range at 137.92 level. Break of that could see 147.35. Bear break of 126.68 could target lows again at 111.10! Neutral this week.
Eurgbp – Big Boss bull body IB last month. 2nd Boss bear close but still within the candle from 2 weeks ago. Still in major uptrend so look for PA to get long back with underlying trend at the rising TL circa 0.8950 ish .
Eurnzd – Big Boss shows a Nov bull candle but it looks like a bear flag in a longer term down move. Bear break of IB on the Boss chart to the small rising TL on the daily. Long above 2.036 targets of 2.1085 and above. Break of small rising TL would be back with major down trend, initial targets of 1.9850. Wait for PA to show the way.
Gbpcad – B Boss still scream down. Boss bond-hammer in free space. Worker shows a BUOB off minor SR leve at 1.7072. Long above 1.7320.
Nzdusd – Monthly Shooter still in play. Worker shows an IB inside the candle of 2 weeks ago. Short below 0.7020.
Audyen – B Boss bear IB last month. Boss is testing the broken UP TL from underneath and last week bear closed below that TL. Daily shows a bond shooter but after a TL break I'm happy to short below 80.70, TP1 at 78.82 and TP2 75.81.
EurCad – Mas all flat on Monthly and boss poss dbl top bear flag. Rangebound but worker still below dbl top bear flag. Wait for market to show hand. Boss gave us bear close last week but came off lows. Neutral.
GbpAud – Monthly hammer on trend channel overshoot low after 2 pushes down. Boss hammer of after 3 pushes down, but with no significant TL break this is still short only on pullbacks. Long above hammer 1.8554.
CadJpy – Monthly bull candle with boss bull candle too. Could be a test of the underside of the broken TL. Await resolution on the worker with decent PA before anything. This pair is going down not up. Or could be in a channel, short below 83.74, TP1 at 72.35.
NzdJpy - Monthly Shooter – Boss hanging man. Worker Shooter of sorts so short below Mas at 64.00
10 Dec 2009
EurNzd long
Had a TL break on strong momentum and 3rd test of rising TL (after 'golden ma cross too)As a lot of systems use MA crossovers, you often see price rises then the MAs cross and PA falls away - could this be traders 'fading' those going long on crossovers? It happens often. Still, I like this pair long now.
Failed Short
Too eager to short this one on a weak BEEB. Not strictly a BEEB and broke the plan here as I fouled up the risk element and had 3% at risk and not 2%. Trade the plan!!!
7 Dec 2009
Long Gold on trend pullback.
Good hammer off the 20ema after a pull back and TL break. Expect at least a test of the trend's extreme back up at the high.
Edit - OK this was a pause bar and not an entry hammer- hammers off the 20ema don't work. Only take at SR levels with good confluence. This was a classic trapped traders' fakout. Looking for 2 pushes down now but would still expect a test of that high due to the strong momentum of the up move previosuly
Nat Gas update
Nat Gas worker is trading into the Boss BEEB. I'll wait for a HH before any longs here.
Weekly Analysis - WE 11 Dec 09
Lt Sweet Crude Dec Fut – Monthly chart shows an IB last month right at the 38% Fib retrace from high to low combined with the SR level at 76.90ish. Boss chart shows 7 dojis in a row but above the major down trend line. Looks like price being held by the B-Boss 50sma. Could be a bull flag on the longer Tfs so wait for a breakout and a HL or LH etc. Neutral.
Nat Gas – B-Boss chart shows a bear IB(inverted hammer type) last month inside the previous doji. Boss chart on line chart looks like a H&S pattern and recent minor up TL broken. Short below 4.413 SR and long above the 5.29 SR and last high. Worker on Fri shows a BUOB but wait for a HL before any longs.
Gold – Monthly Bull Candle breaking old highs. Boss shows a Shooting Star with bear close. No fib /SR confluence up here other than historic high. Short below 1140 but wait for a retest of break for better RR ratio.
DowJones Dec Fut -(YMZ9) – Monthly bull candle in Nov but into high to low 50% retrace. PA still rising so long only until we get a wedge channel overshoot or other bearish action such as a strong TL break.
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Big Bossand boss are still in a bull trend but last week's close was another spinning top on the 5300 level. Worker shows a 3 day expanding triangle with a BEOB and shooting star – short below the TL and 20 ema at 5252.
Cable – Big Boss shows a S Star, boss shows another S Star so short only below last low at 1.6200.
Gbpyen. - B Boss is in a downtrend. Recent action looks like a longer TF bear flag. Rule of 4 not in effect on B Boss yet so short below last low at 138.76. Look out for worker rejecting the SR level at 149.00.
Gbpchf – B Boss bear IB in Nov. Weekly shooting star at top of bear flag and 20/50 clustered MAs. Boss is in a clear downtrend. Short below 1.6750.
Eurusd – B Boss bull candle that bounced off the 78% Fib retrace from H to Low. Boss shows a bear candle. Short below 1.4780 after double top on worker.
Audusd – Monthly still in Up trend but bounced off the 261% Fib projection from the low to the first up swing from the lows. Boss looks toppy with a shooting star last week within the previous week's body. Worker shows small shooting star too with high bouncing off the underside of the broken up TL. Short below .9097.
Usdchf – Poss double bottom forming on B Boss chart, but would like to see a significant HL before long and a close above the SR at 1.0250 before long – Neutral.
Usdcad – B Boss Hammer still the controlling candle from Oct. Boss IB (bull) was broken low but could be a fakeout. PA Still under 20ema so If high of last 2 weeks ago is broken then we have a confirmed HL. Close above 1.0780 would be bullish.
USDYEN – B Boss gives a BUEB off the 86.50 SR level and looks like a major double bottom. Boss shows a large bull candle on strong momentum breaking the recent minor down TL. Will wait for a retrace here to test the TL break but looking for longs only now. NFP effected this by very strong numbers which could cause the Feds to hike USD rates. Could be $ +ve but Eq -ve!
Euryen – Big Boss still in uptrend but in middle of charts range. Boss still rangebound; Bull close last week. On good SR level so if 131.70 goes – short but if 137.92 is broken and tested long.
Eurgbp – Big Boss bull body IB last month. Boss bear close but still within the candle from previous week. Still above major UP TL so but worker gives a BEEB so could target the major UP TL. Wait for that battle to be won before acting and look for +ve PA at that TL to get long.
Eurnzd – Big Boss shows a Nov bull candle but it looks like a bear flag in a longer term down move. Worker shows an IB after the recent down trendline break so I'd expect a test of that BO with a HL or LL. Wait for confirmation but siding with long. PA retraced back to 61% from recent swing low to high so long above 2.090.
Gbpcad – B Boss still scream down. Big Boss bear IB. Worker gapped down last week into a spinning top. Worker in the 20/50 ma trap. Neutral.
Nzdusd – Monthly Shooter still in play. Worker shows an IB/S Star candle so short below 0.7100.
Audyen – B Boss bear IB last month. Boss is testing the broken UP TL from underneath but worker had 5 bull candle in a row. Bulls will not give up easy so wait for a test and -ve PA before considering any shorts.
EurCad – Mas all flat on Monthly and boss poss dbl top bear flag. Rangebound but worker still below dbl top bear flag. Wait for market to show hand. Boss gave us an IB last week. Wait for IB break.
GbpAud – Monthly hammer on trend channel overshoot low after 2 pushes down. Boss hammer of sorts but with no significant TL break this is still short only on pullbacks.
CadJpy – Monthly bull candle with boss bull candle too. Could be a test of the underside of the broken TL. Await resolution on the worker with decent PA before anything. Neutral.
NzdJpy - Monthly Shooter – Boss bull candle into the B Boss 20ema. Worker TL broken and tested. Worker on down TL so expect a bear day on Mon unless PA punches through and follows other yen pairs up with usdyen. Neutral
Nat Gas – B-Boss chart shows a bear IB(inverted hammer type) last month inside the previous doji. Boss chart on line chart looks like a H&S pattern and recent minor up TL broken. Short below 4.413 SR and long above the 5.29 SR and last high. Worker on Fri shows a BUOB but wait for a HL before any longs.
Gold – Monthly Bull Candle breaking old highs. Boss shows a Shooting Star with bear close. No fib /SR confluence up here other than historic high. Short below 1140 but wait for a retest of break for better RR ratio.
DowJones Dec Fut -(YMZ9) – Monthly bull candle in Nov but into high to low 50% retrace. PA still rising so long only until we get a wedge channel overshoot or other bearish action such as a strong TL break.
FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Big Bossand boss are still in a bull trend but last week's close was another spinning top on the 5300 level. Worker shows a 3 day expanding triangle with a BEOB and shooting star – short below the TL and 20 ema at 5252.
Cable – Big Boss shows a S Star, boss shows another S Star so short only below last low at 1.6200.
Gbpyen. - B Boss is in a downtrend. Recent action looks like a longer TF bear flag. Rule of 4 not in effect on B Boss yet so short below last low at 138.76. Look out for worker rejecting the SR level at 149.00.
Gbpchf – B Boss bear IB in Nov. Weekly shooting star at top of bear flag and 20/50 clustered MAs. Boss is in a clear downtrend. Short below 1.6750.
Eurusd – B Boss bull candle that bounced off the 78% Fib retrace from H to Low. Boss shows a bear candle. Short below 1.4780 after double top on worker.
Audusd – Monthly still in Up trend but bounced off the 261% Fib projection from the low to the first up swing from the lows. Boss looks toppy with a shooting star last week within the previous week's body. Worker shows small shooting star too with high bouncing off the underside of the broken up TL. Short below .9097.
Usdchf – Poss double bottom forming on B Boss chart, but would like to see a significant HL before long and a close above the SR at 1.0250 before long – Neutral.
Usdcad – B Boss Hammer still the controlling candle from Oct. Boss IB (bull) was broken low but could be a fakeout. PA Still under 20ema so If high of last 2 weeks ago is broken then we have a confirmed HL. Close above 1.0780 would be bullish.
USDYEN – B Boss gives a BUEB off the 86.50 SR level and looks like a major double bottom. Boss shows a large bull candle on strong momentum breaking the recent minor down TL. Will wait for a retrace here to test the TL break but looking for longs only now. NFP effected this by very strong numbers which could cause the Feds to hike USD rates. Could be $ +ve but Eq -ve!
Euryen – Big Boss still in uptrend but in middle of charts range. Boss still rangebound; Bull close last week. On good SR level so if 131.70 goes – short but if 137.92 is broken and tested long.
Eurgbp – Big Boss bull body IB last month. Boss bear close but still within the candle from previous week. Still above major UP TL so but worker gives a BEEB so could target the major UP TL. Wait for that battle to be won before acting and look for +ve PA at that TL to get long.
Eurnzd – Big Boss shows a Nov bull candle but it looks like a bear flag in a longer term down move. Worker shows an IB after the recent down trendline break so I'd expect a test of that BO with a HL or LL. Wait for confirmation but siding with long. PA retraced back to 61% from recent swing low to high so long above 2.090.
Gbpcad – B Boss still scream down. Big Boss bear IB. Worker gapped down last week into a spinning top. Worker in the 20/50 ma trap. Neutral.
Nzdusd – Monthly Shooter still in play. Worker shows an IB/S Star candle so short below 0.7100.
Audyen – B Boss bear IB last month. Boss is testing the broken UP TL from underneath but worker had 5 bull candle in a row. Bulls will not give up easy so wait for a test and -ve PA before considering any shorts.
EurCad – Mas all flat on Monthly and boss poss dbl top bear flag. Rangebound but worker still below dbl top bear flag. Wait for market to show hand. Boss gave us an IB last week. Wait for IB break.
GbpAud – Monthly hammer on trend channel overshoot low after 2 pushes down. Boss hammer of sorts but with no significant TL break this is still short only on pullbacks.
CadJpy – Monthly bull candle with boss bull candle too. Could be a test of the underside of the broken TL. Await resolution on the worker with decent PA before anything. Neutral.
NzdJpy - Monthly Shooter – Boss bull candle into the B Boss 20ema. Worker TL broken and tested. Worker on down TL so expect a bear day on Mon unless PA punches through and follows other yen pairs up with usdyen. Neutral
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