Weekly Analysis 11 Oct 09

Lt Sweet Crude Nov Fut – Boss chart now still in minor uptrend from lows. PA has broken thru the monthly 20ema but is still under the 50sma. Still just under the 50% retrace from high to low and skirting the key 72.00 level. Trapped under minor down TL from high at 74.90 but after a major TL break i'd prefer this short below 65.00 or long above the monthly 50sma at 75.00. Neutral.

Nat Gas – Big boss chart shows large BUOB. Boss shows a hanging man 2 weeks ago and a shooting star this week. Bearish but UP TL has held so far. Expect a test of 4.65 (last high of downtrend on worker) so still LONG only but only as long as that BO level holds.

Gold – Big boss bullish, boss still bullish with large trend candle breaking last old high of 1033. Still in major uptrend so LONG only on pullbacks.

DowJones Sep Fut -(YMZ9) – Major Up TL still intact although we have had a smaller TL break. Boss gives us a large bull candle off the up TL but we are back at the monthly DOWN TL from the highs. Last low of this UP TL has not been broken and with Crispen Odey (Hedge fund chairman) saying buy all QE shares until QE stops, it's a LONG ONLY chart buying pullbacks to the 20 ema.

FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Worker TL break after a double top and we have broken the woker 20ema. Boss bullish still so long only on pullbacks.

Cable – Boss chart is bearish after the S Star a few weeks back and the M2S (Lower high short near the ema). This week an IB inside last weeks doji/spinning top. PA rejected break of minor down TL. Worker shows a large BEEB. Short only below 1.5760 SR.

Gbpyen. - Up TL broken some weeks back. Boss chart still bearish after 2 pushes down after a double top. Last 2 weeks gives doji/hammer looking bar right off the BO test of the last high of the downtrend. Also at 50% fib retrace from extreme low to high and 61% from top of first wave to top. Worker is in a mess with dojis everywhere. Stand aside but look for opportunities on worker in week. Favour short to SR level at 131.00

Gbpchf – Major up TL's broken. Boss chart still bearish but we have had 2 pushes down resulting in a spinning top at SR level. Boss shows an IB last week right at key 1.6490 SR but worker Hammer from 28 Sept still in play. Neutral.

Eurusd – Broken out of triangle and is above 61% fib. Bull candle last week. Tested wedge BO though and up TL still intact but last week did not break old highs. Worker shows a double top right at the level of the big downtrend spike high from last year. Wait for up TL to be broken and tested for short or double top to be broken for long with trend.

Audusd – Major up TL is still intact on boss with bullish PA after interest rise last week. Could be a large trend-channel over shoot that plays out over 2 weeks? Price looks way to bid-up for me to enter but we are above the 75% retrace too and all MA's. No longs here for me, wait for new trend to establish short before entering.

Usdchf – Boss has broken thru major levels and up TL's . Boss gives us a BUEB right back at the 76% retrace! Deep one that. Boss shows a weak hammer but no protrusion into new lows. Worker IB on Fri but still below the 20ema. No trade here for me but favour LONG should the 20ema break and get tested.

Usdcad – Boss shows a huge bear candle. Smashing thru SR levels and last Up TL. Short only on retraces with short PA.

USDYEN – Major down TL's have been broken and trend is very bearish. 2nd Boss Hammer at the base of this bear channel. Had 2 pushes down (just) and hammer gives us a HL from the low back in Jan 09. Worker gives huge BUEB. ATM long to next SR at 91 at least but only once we have a worker HL.

Euryen – Major UP TL has been broken and tested from underneath. Boss gives us a BUEB after last week's hammer. Worker back above the minor SR level created by the break of the last low of recent down trend channel. Boss still in up trend so long only on bullish PASR unless base of hammer is broken.

Eurgbp – Major UP Trend is still intact with minor DOWN TL now broken and poss tested. Boss gives us a bull bar. Worker gives text-book shooting star about 2 weeks ago that is still the controlling candle. Risky counter-trend short back to 0.9020 level. Sit this out.

Eurnzd – Boss down trend still intact and now we have the MAJOR up TL broken. Boss bear candle. - Poss test now of the broken TL from underneath so wait for PA retrace. PA below the monthly 50sma. No trade here against such a strong trend down.

Gbpcad – Messy. Last week gave huge bear candle. Still in a down Trend. Major up TL's have been broken. Wait for test of broken TL. No trade here.

Nzdusd – Boss is still in major UP trend. PA at the 77% retrace at 0.7386 and worker shows a BEEB. Major UP TL's still intact. Would like to see last high of the uptrend broken and tested (0.7305) for short but until then, too bid for me so no trade here.

Audyen – Boss gives us a huge BUEB but we have not broken thru old highs. PA above big boss 20ema and back above up TL. Not as bid as audusd so long only on pullbacks or break of the last high at 82.10 (with 50% fib confluence)

EurCad – Had one major UP TL break but the second one is holding so far after the hammer a few weeks back. 2 weeks ago Boss gave us a BEOB. All Mas are flat but worker gives a S Star. Last low of Up Trend still not broken so wait for test of that SR for LONG.

GbpAud – Boss chart in a major downtrend and lowest on my chart data. Short only on pullbacks to down TL and worker 20ema.

CadJpy – Boss up TL still intact (just) after two tests. Worker shows 2 hammers much as the other yen pairs right off the Up TL and SR at 81.91. Long with major up trend but counter the immediate down trend after a huge double top. With Up TL still intact LONG only until PA dictates otherwise.