17 Oct 2009

Weekly Analysis 17 Oct 09

Lt Sweet Crude Oct Fut – Strong bullish break out of recent consolidation area. PA now above the Mas. Long only on Pullbacks. Expect pullback to 75 level (monthly 50sma) or 72 BO level.
Nat Gas – Boss chart shows a hammer after last weeks bear doji. Barbwire but always side with the most recent candle and expect the uptrend to continue. Long above the $4.08 SR level.

Gold – Big boss bullish, boss still bullish with large trend candle breaking last old high of 1033. Last week gave us a weak shooting star but I would not short at this level as there has not been a significant TL break first. Wait for retrace into the 1033 level and see how PA reacts there but side with LONG only unless that $1000 level is again violated.

DowJones Sep Fut -(YMZ9) – Major Up TL still intact although we have had a smaller TL break. Boss gives us a small bull candle off the up TL but we are back at the monthly DOWN TL from the highs. Last low of this UP TL has not been broken and with Crispen Odey (Hedge fund chairman) saying buy all QE shares until QE stops, it's a still LONG ONLY chart buying pullbacks to the 20 ema.

FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Worker TL break after a double top and we have broken the worker 20ema. Worker shows a BEOB on Fri's close but the major UP trend is still intact. It's a LONG only on pullbacks unless the get a LH under the key 5100 level.

Cable – Major boss down trend is still in force (weak) but the stong bull trend off the lows is still in play. However, the minor downtrend from the S Star highs is still intact even after the large BUOB last week. I'd like to see the minor downtrend line broken and tested for longs or rejected for shorts. PA is still under the major down TL so early part of the week will reveal all IMO. Worker 20 and 50 are both pointing down still so Neutral on this until the direction becomes clear.

Gbpyen. - Up TL broken some twice weeks back. Boss chart still bearish after 2 pushes down after a double top. PA last week rallied strongly from the BarWire and broke the down trend line and 20ema. Currently in the 20/50 trap but I would expect a test of the steep broken TL and poss 144.00 ish level (high of the Barbwire). Still under the Boss Mas, so, Neutral until there is a BO test but still favour short over the next few days to test the BO.

Gbpchf – Boss chart shows major downtrend still intact but the recent down move has given us 2 pushes down. BUOB last week off the 1.6492 SR zone but after such a big move down I'd be reticent to go long. We could have a HL from the last low in Dec and if PA rallied off here that could be seen as bullish. PA has not broken out from the SR level of the last high of the downtrend so I'd like to see a worker test and HL AND break above 1.6730 before going long. Neutral.

Eurusd – Broken out of triangle and is above 61% fib. Bull candle last week. Tested wedge BO though and up TL still intact but last week did not break old highs. Worker gives us a BO test so this pair is LONG only on pullbacks.

Audusd – This pair has rallied so strongly from the lows it defies gravity! Boss still bullish as is the worker. Above the 76% retrace so far too bid for me to get in at this level but, it keeps going up and until the UP TL is broken then one should LONG every pullback PA opportunity.

Usdchf – Boss shows us a BEOB but PA is extended far from the 20ema so it's short only but wait for a elastic pullback to the 20ema first.

Usdcad – Boss still bearish with no trend line breaks long. Only take PASR long after a TL break. Boss shows a weak hammer but with no previous TL breaks I'm not interested. Still short on pullbacks.

USDYEN – 2nd bounce of the TL created as double bottom on the monthly charts. Down TL still not broken so I would stick with short only unless the 92.00 level is broken and tested.

Euryen – Minor up trend still intact after the hammer test of the TL from the March lows. Boss shows bullish candles so its Dr Joe. Keep buying on the way up but I'd like to see PA breach 137 and Monthly 20ema confluence before going long.

Eurgbp – PA not broken the last high of the most recent Boss downtrend from the highs. Boss last week shows a BEOB but the minor UP TL is still intact. Wait for a TL break and test on good PASR but after 3rd Boss lower high side with short after minor up TL break. Worker S Star a few days ago worked as planned and hit initial target exactly!

Eurnzd – No reason to do anything here other than short. Wait for significant TL break before considering any longs from last weeks IB. Short only but risky so sit this one out.

Gbpcad – Boss shows PA retrace back to 20ema. Look for a worker PA setup to continue with SHORT only.

Nzdusd – Long only. All charts still bullish. Only short below .7246 last low of uptrend level.

Audyen – Boss still bullish but now in the 20/50 Boss ema trap. Worker gives us a S Star on Friday's close and momentum has been weakening of late. Wait for S Star to activate and PA produce a LH below the SR level at 81.80 before going short or continue with long should that level be tested and produce a bullish PA to stick with trend.

EurCad – Difficult chart to assess. Had 2 TL breaks to the downside and PA is under the last one. Wait for PASR from this underside position and continue with recent minor down trend.

GbpAud – Still short all the way. No reason to counter trend this at all. Short all pullbacks to the 20ema.

CadJpy – Long only above the Monthly 20ema at 88.80