Wkly analysis for week commencing 27 Sep 09

Lt Sweet Crude Oct Fut – Boss chart is no bearish as the up trend line has been broken as has the last low of the uptrend. Price closed below the Boss 20 ema. Next SR level to target is 59.00. Only IRAN could foul things up this week and send oil rocketing again.

Nat Gas – Major move up last week but long is on as the down TL has been broken and tested around the SR level at 3.812. PA is now above the 20 and 50 emas on the worker chart. Long only above the LAST HIGH of the down move at 4.110

Gold – Up trend still intact. At key $1000 level. Only trade long but bear in mind we could be at a top after 2 strong TL breaks this could be a higher high. Weekly spinning top this week at 1000 level. Buy pullbacks.

DowJones Sep Fut -(YMZ9) – Up TL still intact. Boss now above Big Boss 20ema. PA is at top after 3 pushed up ending in a doji. Poss top as we are at the major down TL now on the boss chart. Last week ended with a bear candle but could be an IB on the bodies only. Iran may play havoc this week as people will get spooked. Watch closely!

FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Boss chart still bullish, Up TL still intact. Also had 3 pushes higher; Boss shows a bear IB. . Poss market top. Also right on the 50% Fib from boss H to L. Worker chart shows a break below the recent up TL but we are resting on the support from the BO from the last high of the up trend. Wait for TL break and test before short.

Cable – Trapped under Monthly 20ema and at major down TL from high thru recent shooting star. Last week was a bear candle but we are right on the 1.5900 SR level. Up TL is now broken and tested. Short only on pullbacks – now below the Boss 20 ema.

Gbpyen. - Now had 2 TL break and the boss hammer l2 weeks ago worked as planned and we had another big bear candle. PA has now broken below the 50sma again. Short only on pull backs – target of 131.00

Gbpchf – This pair is still in free fall and has broken all support and Mas. 157.00 level next as the poss support from the broken down TL? Short only on pullbacks.

Eurusd – Still in an Up Trend but boss shows a spinning top on the key 1.47 level (same level as the rejected lash high in Dec 08. Wait for confirmation but a poss top from a failed wedge BO.
Audusd – Major up TL is still intact on boss with bullish PA. Boss shows another spinning top (pause bar). Wait for PA but don't bet against the boss.

Usdchf – Boss has broken thru all major levels and up TL's and is still bearish . No trade here.
Usdcad – BUEB on boss chart this week bouncing off support at 1.0680. The major UP TL has been broken but I would only imagine a test of this broken TL from the underside so any longs would target 1.1060ish at first and the monthly 50sma.

USDYEN – Major down TL's have been broken and PA is very bearish. Very steep minor down TL but the last low of the UP TL has been broken. Boss shows a BEEB and PA is resting on the major monthly UP TL. Short only with target of 86.00

Euryen – Major UP TL has been broken and tested from underneath. Last boss candle was a hammer but last week gave a loose IB that has been broken to the upside. Boss shows a poss BEEB under the broken up TL. Short only on pullbacks.

Eurgbp – Major UP Trend is still intact with minor DOWN TL now broken and poss tested. Boss gives us a 2nd large bull trend bar. LONG ONLY on pullbacks.

Eurnzd – Boss down TL still intact and we have a BEEB this week too. PA closed below the broken Up TL now but also approaching the monthly 50sma. 2.036 level acting as support on the worker. Wait for PA to confirm.

Gbpcad – Messy. Last week gave us an inverted hammer. Worker has put in a very loose HL. Still in a down Trend. Major up TL's have been broken. Wait for test of broken TL.

Nzdusd – Boss is still in major UP trend. Broken thru 61% Fib retrace could be targeting the 77% retrace at 0.7386? Major UP TL's still intact. Worker gives us a shooting star 3 days ago. Boss chart still very bullish. Sit out until TL is broken.

Audyen – Boss chart still in major Barb Wire – had a major up TL break then a higher high but has now closed with a bear candle. Closed below both worker Mas. Last low of the up trend has not been broken so wait for this break at 76.00 level to break.

EurCad – Long only as we have another bull candle close above the Tls this week. PA above the 2 worker Mas and the 20ema from the boss. Need a break of the boss 50sma now but we are still in this long term bear channel.

GbpCad – In a major down trend. Short only on pullbacks, target of 1.5165

nzdusd

Still not comfortable with this trade although I have left the order in the market at .7140. Trade did not trigger today and moved the least out of all the USD pairs. Must be some right old strength in that baby!! So, although on demo it had not triggered from yesterday.

Still, it's counter trend - should really wait for the up TL to be broken and tested. Cable was a great new-with-trend entry today producing 350pips - I sat that one out :(

Nzdusd - Demo Trade Short

Demo trade as an ATM to at least the up DSRI. Would add if that was broken and tested. Could be a risky top pick though as the $ should depreciate further after the news from the FOMC today. It could be due a breather though so would target SR at 0.6886 and DRSI and take off 50% there.

Weekly Analysis WE 25 Sep 09

Had a rough weekend on the booze in Newcastle so posting a day late as I was away!

Lt Sweet Crude Oct Fut – Boss chart is still bullish but the major up TL has now been broken. Rejected the 72.00 level and stuck under the B Boss 20ema. Still no short here until the TL is tested from underneath and the dly 50sma is broken along with the 67.00 level

Nat Gas – Major move up last week but to long this we need to see the TL broken and tested around the SR level at 3.812. PA is now above the 20 and 50 emas on the worker chart.

Gold – Up trend still intact. At key $1000 level. Only trade long but bear in mind we could be at a top after 2 strong TL breaks this could be a higher high. Weekly spinning top this week at 1000 level. Buy pullbacks.

DowJones Sep Fut -(YMZ9) – Up TL still intact. Boss now above Big Boss 20ema. PA is at top after 3 pushed up ending in a doji. Poss top as we are at the major down TL now on the boss chart. Watch closely!

FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Boss chart still bullish, Up TL still intact. Also had 3 pushes higher; daily on HM and IB. Poss market top. Also right on the 50% Fib from boss H to L. Wait for TL break and test before short.

Cable – Trapped under Monthly 20ema and at major down TL from high thru recent shooting star. Last week was a BEEB. Up TL is now broken and tested. Short only below Boss 20 ema and last low.

Gbpyen. - Now had 2 TL break and the boss hammer last week may have trapped traders. PA stuck under boss 20ema but over boss 50 so in the TRAP still at 148.95 ish. Wait for PA but with the TL breaks and double top, only consider short.

Gbpchf - Had 2 major up TL breaks and PA is still trapped under the minor down TL after a lower high. Boss bearish candle trapped under 20ema. Major down trend bar last week so only short this pair. Next target is the 1.6490 level.

Eurusd – Broken out of triangle BUT has rejected 61% fib. Large bullish candle on boss but there is a daily Shooting Star on worker at this key LEVEL. Wait for major fib level and last high at 1.47 level to go before long.

Audusd – Major up TL is still intact on boss with bullish PA. Boss shows a spinning top (pause bar). Wait for PA but don't bet against the boss.

Usdchf – Boss has broken thru major levels and up TL's . No trade here.

Usdcad – Bearish PA BUT we have had a LOWER LOW after a down TL break; PA is battling at the low and had now been supported by the broken Down TL and is now in Barb Wire. Price is also still BELOW the major Broken UP TL from the boss but the down TL support has given us a higher low. Leaning toward long but wait for resolution of BARB WIRE at this big 1.0781 level.

USDYEN – Major down TL's have been broken and PA is very bearish. Very steep minor down TL but the last low of the UP TL has been broken. Steep worker TL has been broken so we could be setting up for a test with a lower low OR a bounce off that TL so it becomes support. Wait for PA.

Euryen – Major UP TL has been broken and tested from underneath. Last boss candle was a hammer but last week gave a loose IB that has been broken to the upside. Still long only until last low of the UP trend is broken.

Eurgbp – Major UP Trend is still intact with minor DOWN TL now broken and poss tested. Boss gives us a large bull trend bar. LONG ONLY on pullbacks

Eurnzd – Boss minor down trend still intact and now we have the MAJOR up tl broken. Boss Spinning top - Could be a failed BO of TL– Worker shows a down TL break then a lower low. Intersection of the 2 TL's. Wait for PA to decide but side with Short until proved otherwise. PA still under worker 20ema.

Gbpcad – Messy. Last week gave us a BEEB. Still in a down Trend. Major up TL's have been broken. Wait for test of broken TL.

Nzdusd – Boss is still in major UP trend. Broken thru 61% Fib retarce could be targeting the 77% retrace at 0.7386? Major UP TL's still intact. Looks too long to get in so, sit this one out as last week.

Audyen – Boss chart in major Barb Wire – had a major up TL break then a higher high. Fallen back from this high and given a BEEB but still above UP TL. Worker shows caught in the 20/50 trap but last bar was bearish. Only short below 76.60 (break of 2nd Up TL and last low of the up trend). Same as last week. Trade long only but only on bull PASR

EurCad – Had one major UP TL break but the second one is holding so far after the hammer a few weeks back. Boss is bullish with PA above the B Boss 20ema. But, we are in the Boss 20/50 trap also at the base of a long large channel. Only trade LONG. Had worker golden cross and PA is above the 20ema after a hammer off that 3 days ago. Long only

Others to follow

Oil

Gold

Dow Jones

FTSE

Pairs to concentrate on!

From Strat's thread:

EUR/USD

USD/CHF

USD/JPY

AUD/USD

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

NZD/USD

EUR/JPY

EUR/CAD

GBP/JPY

AUD/JPY

New ETX

Well, thought I was short cable today and short eurusd but for some reason cable never triggerd. The broker email said I cancelled it? (new broker - etxcapital); haven't quite got to grips with placing orders etc yet? Why do brokers never offer an option to close out incrementaly? Why are they all so different - must find a new broker that offers limit orders at fractions of the opening price to better control risk!

So, eurusd spiked and took me out and cable was canx - not a great day for my £100 starting capital. :(

Start of week analysis and direction.

Lt Sweet Crude Oct Fut – Boss Hanging Man below the Major UP TL at 69.00 level. Only short if Hanging Man low breaks. Daily shows BEOB. 67.00 is the major Level so wait for PA at this key level.

Nat Gas – Boss 'Barb Wire' at base of long down move – wait for resolution.

Gold – Up trend still intact. At key $1000 level. Only trade long but bear in mind we could be at a top after 2 strong TL breaks this could be a higher high.

DowJones Sep Fut -(YMU9) – Up TL still intact. Boss trapped under the Big Boss 20ema. PA is at top after 3 pushed up ending in a doji. Poss top. Wait for PA and TL break to go short.

FTSE Fut – Boss chart still bullish, Up TL still intact. Also had 3 pushes higher; daily on HM and IB. Poss market top. Wait for TL break and test before short.

Cable – Trapped under Monthly 20ema and at major down TL from high thru recent shooting star. Daily on Doji under up TL break. Poss LH after a TL break. Short below Doji.

Gbpyen. - Now had 2 TL break and the boss hammer last week may have trapped traders. PA stuck under boss 20ema but over boss 50 so in the TRAP. Wait for PA but with the TL breaks and double top, only consider short.

Gbpchf - Had 2 major up TL breaks and PA is still trapped under the minor down TL after a lower high. Boss bearish candle trapped under 20ema. Worker shows a BUOB then an IB. Also a triple bottom. Only short if that bottom is broken.

Eurusd – Broken out of triangle BUT has rejected 61% fib. Large bullish candle on boss but there is a daily Shooting Star on worker at this key LEVEL. Poss FAILED B/OUT Short below Star.

Audusd – Major up TL is still intact on boss with bullish PA. Worker shows Doji but poss Barb Wire – wait for PA but don't bet against the boss.

Usdchf – Boss has broken thru major levels and up TL's after BEEB. No trade here.

Usdcad – Bearish PA BUT we have had a LOWER LOW after a down TL break; PA is battling at the low and had now been supported by the broken Down TL and is now in Barb Wire. Price is also still BELOW the major Broken UP TL from the boss but the down TL support has given us a higher low. Leaning toward long but wait for resolution of BARB WIRE.

USDYEN – Major down TL's have been broken and PA is very bearish. Very steep minor down TL but the last low of the UP TL has been broken. Short only on retrace.

Euryen – Major UP TL has been broken and tested from underneath. Last boss candle was a hammer but this week gave a loose IB. Only short on retrace with good PA.

Eurgbp – Major UP Trend is still intact with minor DOWN TL now broken and poss tested. Worker gives us a HIGHER LOW and a hammer. Boss gives an Inverted Hammer. LONG ONLY

Eurnzd – Boss minor down trend still intact and now we have the MAJOR up tl broken. Could be a failed BO – Worker shows a down TL break then a lower low. Intersection of the 2 TL's. Wait for PA to decide but side with Short until proved otherwise.

Gbpcad – Messy. Still in a down Trend. Major up TL's have been broken. Large S Star on boss last week and this week an IB. Wait for break of IB but side with short.

Nzdusd – Boss is still in major UP trend. Broken thru 61% Fib retarce could be targeting the 77% retrace at 0.7386? Major UP TL's still intact. Looks too long to get in so, sit this one out.

Audyen – Boss chart in major Barb Wire – had a major up TL break then a higher high. Fallen back from this high and given a BEEB but still above UP TL. Worker shows caught in the 20/50 trap but last bar was bearish. Only short below 76.60 (break of 2nd Up TL and last low of the up trend)

Audnzd – Only short below 1.2080 below major up TL and the break of the last low of the Up Trend. Caught in a down trend channel but could be a big bull flag.

USDCAD

Still long usdcad - just. The gold order short was never triggered. The indices are looking weak now with a big BEOB on the 4hr futures chart. So, down 58 pips on that trade today.

Levels

Forgot to say ref last posts as they are counter-trend at this moment I have limit orders in at the next SR levels. Once a new trend is established on each pair then I will have the confidence to allow each trade to run. I'd do this by waiting for the trend line Rule of 4 to be established then look for a PA entry in line with the trend.

ETX Account

Well, took advantage of a free £100 with ETX Capital today. I have a short order in for gold on the appreance of the daily Shooting Star at $1000 level and a long usdcad order above the daily hammer.

See chart:

Mon FTSE Stopped out

No trading today - FTSE order from last week was stopped out for a loss. On reflection I should have never went short this market as the major TL (daily) had not been violated or even tested. Do remember NEVER to trade against the major trend - because you are trying to enforce your EGO onto the market and thinking you are better than what the CHART is telling you.

You will never become successful unless you TRADE THE PLAN. Period.

Close on Friday

Well, not an ace week but what would one expect in NFP week? Still short FTSE and still short audusd after an 1hr S Star entry this evening.

Stopped out of eurgbp (after closing out 50%) and then stopped out of gbpchf. Will wait for a better DAILY entry once back on the plan next week.

1hr and 4hr TFs????

What are these TFs Daniel?? 1 and 4hr? what happened to the dailies?

No panic - I'm on leave this week and I'm selecting the best trades (non-usd) on the daily and waiting for tighter entries on the MIN 1hr TF - No Lower - so I'm not hunting the lower TFs more gaining a tight entry based on 1hr and 4hr SR levels and PASR in the daily direction. All this because I have time this week.

Back to work next week so no matter what - back to the daily TF as I'll only be looking at the charts for a quick 30mins after 2200UK time each evening!!

Pulled or rather stopped out of audusd - I moved the stop last night to the top of the daily IB and was taken out today - small profit and I'll wait till after US NFP on Fri and Labor Day on Mon before entering the market again.

I've initiated a small short position in gbpchf based on the pullback and textbook 1hr Shooting Star. Been looking for an entry into this pair - just hope that NFP leaves this one alone. IMF warned today that the UK was the worst placed country to pull thru the recession too; that should help this piece of crap sterling plummet and also help my other 12 pip risk position long eurgbp that I took this evening on the appearance of H4 ii candle formation at the weekly 20ema. I'm pretty sure we will see another attempt on the big down TL - hoping for a break thru with such small risk (12 pips) that I risked £2 per point. Again, could be risky with NFP but I'm hoping these pairs are left alone unless CABLE messes the party up tomorrow?? We will see!

Here's the AUDUSD chart that I was in today from the daily entry. This shows the power of the smaller 5m trades and although I never trade the 5M you can learn here and apply the same princiapls to the daily charts.

New trade - Long usdchf - in at 1.0600 stop at 1.0539 (below base of 1hr hammer)

Stop was hit by 2 pips then Cable plummeted over 130 pips :(