13 Dec 2009

Weekly Analysis - WE 20 Dec 09

Lt Sweet Crude Jan Fut – Monthly chart shows an IB last month right at the 38% Fib retrace from high to low combined with the SR level at 76.90ish. Boss chart shows 7 dojis in a row and last week broke free to the downside at the junctre of the major down TL. Short only with targets of 67.00 and 59.90. Short only BUT expect a restest of the trend extreme after such a strong TL being broken.

Nat Gas – B-Boss chart shows a bear IB(inverted hammer type) last month inside the previous doji. Boss chart shows a bull candle-body IB but the wick did extend higher. A break of the monthly 20ema would be bullish and the SR level at 5.29. If penetrated look for the break and then test of that break to go long with TP at 6.075 SR level and TP2 7.030. Long above 5.29.

Gold – Monthly Bull Candle breaking old highs. Boss 2 weeks ago shows a Shooting Star with bear close. No fib /SR confluence up here other than historic high. 20 ema, daily now pointing south. Short below 1140 but wait for a retest of break for better RR ratio. Next target 1063 minor and 1033 major.

DowJones Dec Fut -(YMZ9) – Monthly bull candle in Nov but into high to low 50% retrace. PA still rising so long only until we get a wedge channel overshoot or other bearish action such as a strong TL break. PA now getting smaller and narrower – could be a strong break soon. With all the stops expected above the PA I'd expect a spike to activate the shorts then a short squeeze back up to new highs!

FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Big Boss and boss are still in a bull trend but last week's close was another doji on the 5300 level. Daily shows a Shooting Star and H2 short– short below the TL, Shooting Star and 20 ema at 5240.

Cable – Big Boss shows a S Star, boss shows another S Star 2 weeks ago short only below last low at 1.6200. Looks like a rounded top reversal. Daily chart shows 3 spinning tops in a row on the 1.6262 SR level as base of range. Wait for a worker H2/H3 before short.

Gbpyen. - B Boss is in a downtrend. Recent action looks like a longer TF bear flag. Rule of 4 not in effect on B Boss yet so short below last low at 138.76. Worker rejected the SR level at 149.00 as predicted. Last week gives a bear IB but worker looks like a dbl bottom and test. Long above the SR and IB at 149.00 and short below 140.62 back with major underlying trend.

Gbpchf – B Boss bear IB in Nov. Weekly bull candle off a worker rising TL but into major downtrend line. Limit Sell orders at 1.6900 to go short with major trend with tgts of 1.6400 and 1.6300 below that.

Eurusd – B Boss bull candle that bounced off the 78% Fib retrace from H to Low. Boss shows a another bear candle that is on the 20ema and below the last low of the uptrend. We have broken the rising TL too, but I'd expect a HH or LH test before a trend change as the rise has been so strong. Wait for a H2 near the ema for example before any shorts or look for long action at 1.4528 to trade with the trend into that HH or LH test of the old trend extreme.

Audusd – Monthly still in Up trend but bounced off the 261% Fib projection from the low to the first up swing from the lows. Boss looks toppy with a shooting star last week within the previous week's body. Last week shows a doji closing where it opened. Worker shows a poss broken TL test and IB so short below 0.9085, tgts of 0.8730 and 0.8362.

Usdchf – Double bottom could be in as we have 2 bull candles, last weeks breaking the last high of the downtrend BUT still below the 20ema. Wait for a pullback to the broken SR level at 1.0250 and look for PA to get LONG. This also needs a good test after such a strong downtrend.

Usdcad – B Boss Hammer still the controlling candle from Oct. Boss bear legs are getting much shorter with less momentum. Last pushes down have been weak and last week shows a bull spinning top at the 61% retrace from Low to high. Long only above 1.0700.

Usdyen – B Boss gives a BUEB off the 86.50 SR level and looks like a major double bottom. Boss shows a bear IB after a worker test of the broken down TL. Trend is still down and with no HH/HLs to base new trend on, NEUTRAL, but siding with a long break above the IB at 91.25 above the 20ema and SR level.

Euryen – Big Boss still in uptrend but in middle of charts range. Boss still rangebound; Last week shows bear IB. I guess this would follow usdyen so side with long back to top of range at 137.92 level. Break of that could see 147.35. Bear break of 126.68 could target lows again at 111.10! Neutral this week.

Eurgbp – Big Boss bull body IB last month. 2nd Boss bear close but still within the candle from 2 weeks ago. Still in major uptrend so look for PA to get long back with underlying trend at the rising TL circa 0.8950 ish .

Eurnzd – Big Boss shows a Nov bull candle but it looks like a bear flag in a longer term down move. Bear break of IB on the Boss chart to the small rising TL on the daily. Long above 2.036 targets of 2.1085 and above. Break of small rising TL would be back with major down trend, initial targets of 1.9850. Wait for PA to show the way.

Gbpcad – B Boss still scream down. Boss bond-hammer in free space. Worker shows a BUOB off minor SR leve at 1.7072. Long above 1.7320.

Nzdusd – Monthly Shooter still in play. Worker shows an IB inside the candle of 2 weeks ago. Short below 0.7020.

Audyen – B Boss bear IB last month. Boss is testing the broken UP TL from underneath and last week bear closed below that TL. Daily shows a bond shooter but after a TL break I'm happy to short below 80.70, TP1 at 78.82 and TP2 75.81.

EurCad – Mas all flat on Monthly and boss poss dbl top bear flag. Rangebound but worker still below dbl top bear flag. Wait for market to show hand. Boss gave us bear close last week but came off lows. Neutral.

GbpAud – Monthly hammer on trend channel overshoot low after 2 pushes down. Boss hammer of after 3 pushes down, but with no significant TL break this is still short only on pullbacks.
Long above hammer 1.8554.

CadJpy – Monthly bull candle with boss bull candle too. Could be a test of the underside of the broken TL. Await resolution on the worker with decent PA before anything. This pair is going down not up. Or could be in a channel, short below 83.74, TP1 at 72.35.

NzdJpy - Monthly Shooter – Boss hanging man. Worker Shooter of sorts so short below Mas at 64.00