7 Nov 2009

Weekly Analysis 7 Nov 09

Lt Sweet Crude Oct Fut – Long only on pullbacks – Boss shows inverted hammer. Closed above Mas and NO TL break yet so still long only.

Nat Gas – 3rd Boss down trend bar and up TL break. Wait for a test of the BO level and poss retrace after the TL break back up to a HH or LH. Expected move after the major down trend line was breached so expecting a higher low test. Wait for HL to establish before going Long.

Gold – Monthly Bull Candle breaking old highs. Boss bull trend candle after BO test last week. Long Only.

DowJones Sep Fut -(YMZ9) – Monthly Doji high still in control. Boss bull trend bar but not above highs from previous weeks. Major tussle at meeting of a bull/bear TL. Wait for resolution but with no TL break it's still long only until that happens.

FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Boss IB candle body that rinsed shorts last week by taking out BEEB low by a few pips then reversing. Short below the 4910 level as we have had 2 TL breaks with the first followed by a HH test.

Cable – Monthly BUEB. Boss S/Star 3 weeks ago still the controlling candle as PA trapped below the monthly 20ema although closed above the descending TL – Short only on pullbacks unless high of shooter and monthly 20ema is breached.

Gbpyen. - Boss bull candle but still below major descending TL after a dbl top. Short only on pullbacks. Note close correlation with indices.

Gbpchf – As above – Boss seems to be in a bear flag. Still below the boss 20/50 Mas. Expect a LL/HL test of the bottom back in Oct 13

Eurusd – Boss IB (body). No TL breaks of note so still long only. Caution though as could be forming a RHS of a H&S pattern.

Audusd – Monthly still in Up trend. No TL breaks so still long only.

Usdchf – Monthly shows a hammer and poss HL after the low from Dec 07. 1.0258 level is a major level and have a bear IB (body). Still in downtrend so short below break of boss IB.

Usdcad – Monthly hammer off key level and gives a HL from the low at Sep 07. Boss still gave a bear hanging man. Unless last high of down move is taken out at 1.100 level it's still short on pullbacks.

USDYEN – At base of recent bear channel after a channel breach that gave us a hammer. Boss shows inverted hammer. Wait for swing to show, but could be putting a bottom in here so I would side with long above the BEOB at 92.40 level. This could also point to equities falling soon.

Euryen – Monthly is in BarbWire but last candle was a shooter. Boss still below last weeks high and stuck in range. Neutral.

Eurgbp – Boss shows inverted hammer above the boss 20ema that is sitting ion the 50sma. Still long only above top of Inv Hammer at .9100 SR level.

Eurnzd – Boss Doji above the previous boss BUEB. Not convinced with long just yet as the TL break was very weak and a poss bull trap. Would like to see bullish PA on the descending TL giving a test for long. Neutral.

Gbpcad – Boss Hanging Man just rejecting the boss 50sma. Still short only on this pair. Worker looks like a dbl top bear flag so short below 1.7464 level.

Nzdusd – Monthly Shooter still in play. Wait for break of the .7070 level to get short.

Audyen – Looking toppy – doji close on worker on Fri. Could be a LH so short below the 81.27 SR level should It go.

EurCad – Mas all flat on Monthly and boss poss dbl top bear flag. PA in large pennant – neutral.

GbpAud – Monthly hammer on trend channel overshoot low after 2 pushes down. Boss BUOB. Long only above 1.8500.

CadJpy – Monthly bear candle boss BEEB after monthly 20ema test and rejection of descending TL from highs. Short only below 81.91 level.

NzdJpy - Monthly Shooter – Boss BEEB. Short only below 62.88.