21 Sept 2009

Weekly Analysis WE 25 Sep 09

Had a rough weekend on the booze in Newcastle so posting a day late as I was away!

Lt Sweet Crude Oct Fut – Boss chart is still bullish but the major up TL has now been broken. Rejected the 72.00 level and stuck under the B Boss 20ema. Still no short here until the TL is tested from underneath and the dly 50sma is broken along with the 67.00 level

Nat Gas – Major move up last week but to long this we need to see the TL broken and tested around the SR level at 3.812. PA is now above the 20 and 50 emas on the worker chart.

Gold – Up trend still intact. At key $1000 level. Only trade long but bear in mind we could be at a top after 2 strong TL breaks this could be a higher high. Weekly spinning top this week at 1000 level. Buy pullbacks.

DowJones Sep Fut -(YMZ9) – Up TL still intact. Boss now above Big Boss 20ema. PA is at top after 3 pushed up ending in a doji. Poss top as we are at the major down TL now on the boss chart. Watch closely!

FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Boss chart still bullish, Up TL still intact. Also had 3 pushes higher; daily on HM and IB. Poss market top. Also right on the 50% Fib from boss H to L. Wait for TL break and test before short.

Cable – Trapped under Monthly 20ema and at major down TL from high thru recent shooting star. Last week was a BEEB. Up TL is now broken and tested. Short only below Boss 20 ema and last low.

Gbpyen. - Now had 2 TL break and the boss hammer last week may have trapped traders. PA stuck under boss 20ema but over boss 50 so in the TRAP still at 148.95 ish. Wait for PA but with the TL breaks and double top, only consider short.

Gbpchf - Had 2 major up TL breaks and PA is still trapped under the minor down TL after a lower high. Boss bearish candle trapped under 20ema. Major down trend bar last week so only short this pair. Next target is the 1.6490 level.
Eurusd – Broken out of triangle BUT has rejected 61% fib. Large bullish candle on boss but there is a daily Shooting Star on worker at this key LEVEL. Wait for major fib level and last high at 1.47 level to go before long.

Audusd – Major up TL is still intact on boss with bullish PA. Boss shows a spinning top (pause bar). Wait for PA but don't bet against the boss.

Usdchf – Boss has broken thru major levels and up TL's . No trade here.

Usdcad – Bearish PA BUT we have had a LOWER LOW after a down TL break; PA is battling at the low and had now been supported by the broken Down TL and is now in Barb Wire. Price is also still BELOW the major Broken UP TL from the boss but the down TL support has given us a higher low. Leaning toward long but wait for resolution of BARB WIRE at this big 1.0781 level.

USDYEN – Major down TL's have been broken and PA is very bearish. Very steep minor down TL but the last low of the UP TL has been broken. Steep worker TL has been broken so we could be setting up for a test with a lower low OR a bounce off that TL so it becomes support. Wait for PA.

Euryen – Major UP TL has been broken and tested from underneath. Last boss candle was a hammer but last week gave a loose IB that has been broken to the upside. Still long only until last low of the UP trend is broken.

Eurgbp – Major UP Trend is still intact with minor DOWN TL now broken and poss tested. Boss gives us a large bull trend bar. LONG ONLY on pullbacks
Eurnzd – Boss minor down trend still intact and now we have the MAJOR up tl broken. Boss Spinning top - Could be a failed BO of TL– Worker shows a down TL break then a lower low. Intersection of the 2 TL's. Wait for PA to decide but side with Short until proved otherwise. PA still under worker 20ema.
Gbpcad – Messy. Last week gave us a BEEB. Still in a down Trend. Major up TL's have been broken. Wait for test of broken TL.

Nzdusd – Boss is still in major UP trend. Broken thru 61% Fib retarce could be targeting the 77% retrace at 0.7386? Major UP TL's still intact. Looks too long to get in so, sit this one out as last week.

Audyen – Boss chart in major Barb Wire – had a major up TL break then a higher high. Fallen back from this high and given a BEEB but still above UP TL. Worker shows caught in the 20/50 trap but last bar was bearish. Only short below 76.60 (break of 2nd Up TL and last low of the up trend). Same as last week. Trade long only but only on bull PASR

EurCad – Had one major UP TL break but the second one is holding so far after the hammer a few weeks back. Boss is bullish with PA above the B Boss 20ema. But, we are in the Boss 20/50 trap also at the base of a long large channel. Only trade LONG. Had worker golden cross and PA is above the 20ema after a hammer off that 3 days ago. Long only