End of month fixing caused a wobble for the dollar which fell at the same time as equities and crude and killed my sterling trades

So That's what is was then!

Cheers Nic

Well, went live with three trades today:

1. Cable short at 16238 Stop at 16353 above BEOB the reentred on 15m S/Star stop at star top.

2. FTSE Fut short at 4880 Stop at 4950 above 1hr S/Star

3. Audusd short at .8365 stop at 8476 above dly S/Star

I knew I should not have entred the Cable trade as there was a 4hr Pin against it. But like a mong I did it anyway. What happened to trading reversals with first having a TL break then strong move back to that TL high or LH or LL?? PATIENCE!! The daily cable was a clear example of Barb Wire. NEVER trade barb wire! Again! Right!

See charts below:

I just thought I'd share with you this weekend some of the stuff I have learnt over the past couple of weeks with regard to trend trading and counter trend trading. When I started out (4yrs ago) I was trading blind just looking for a chart was that going up and buying because it looked good. I won a bit and lost a bit. Then I came across Trader_Dante's thread Making Money Trading over on T2W which I found to be a revelation. I had never considered Fibs and SR levels or even individual candle patterns and I was amazed that some good soul had taken the time to show new traders how and what the market did and why. That thread and the J16 thread really got me interested in the markets and trading, but I STILL thought I knew best and tried 'fitting' many silly indicators and lines to my charts thinking I could get the march on the markets. I have a shelf full of trading books all about RSI, MACD, Force Index, Convergence, Divergence etc and I filled my head with all that senseless crap. So then I started to 'give' the markets my cash as I found my little systems never stood up in the live market. Great in hindsight but crap in practise. So, then I went back to 'pin bars' (hammers and shooting stars) and re-read Tom's thread over on T2W. I had some success but I still didn't seem to be making it as a trader because I was programmed to be a counter trend trader without having any real idea what a trend was in the first place and when that trend was broken. To me, this is the BIG danger with learning some of these formations unless you RIGIDLY stick to taking them as fades (ie reversals back INTO the main underlying trend). This was my big undoing as I was trying to trade every hammer and shooting star always looking for those 1000pip plus moves at the top or bottom of a big trend break. So then, in Jan of this year I came across another 'thread' and some pro's down in Spain who had set up a live room with a special chart set up. Now, although I couldn't trade in their way, I did learn am few things from them guys like the importance of the 20 and 50 mas (I'd never used them before) and the ability to set MT4 up showing some of that info across the charts (ie Boss MAs on the worker charts). Their system was not for me as they used 'averaging' candles that HID the PA from traders. This seemed odd to me; why would you 'hide' the PA? I also found that the heiken ashi candles were only good after the event and didn't trade well live. And as for the 15min TF - Well, we all know how stressful that is!! But, I did meet some good people there and I'm still in contact with a few of them today, so there are many positives to that experience including my friend introducing me to this thread back in April 09. Since coming across this thread and Strat's instruction I feel I have learnt much more about trading etc in the past few months than the previous 3 yrs! The odd thing is, I already knew a lot of it and debunked it because I wouldn't believe that trading could be that simple. Well, I can save you a few years and a good few thousand pounds/dollars etc and tell you that the only way to trade and mix it with the pro's is with PRICE ACTION. This is the 'grail' to the markets. Why don't many people learn this stuff? Well, I reckon some see it as too hard to bother with and would rather have an EA tell them when to trade. It could be that some people think it is a lot harder than this (I did) and look for complex systems. Learning PA may seem like a hard slog but believe me, once you start to see the PASR you can have a little chuckle when you read a chart because you can see what may be about to unfold (I say MAY as there are no certainties in this business). Lets looks at the chart below to illustrate the point. The chart is the FTSE Fut chart As you can see the FTSE is in a strong up trend since Mar 2003 and if you wanted to make money all you had to do was buy on every dip to that Trend Line(TL). All the MAs are in the right order too, so we would never consider shorting this market. The key to making money is identifying a trend early on and the sticking with it. Once you have a low then a high then a higher low its time to jump on board. Trends often go on a lot longer than people think. As you can see at Point A, the market broke that UP TL; this was our first warning that the bulls were running out of steam and a trend change could be in the offing. Now, most TL break need confirming with a test and sometimes these tests will result in a higher high (Point B) or a lower low (in a down trend). What we look for here is a reversal pattern (we are now looking for a short because of the TL break) and in 14 Oct 2007 we had a BEOB. Now aggressive traders may take this setup as their short. The more conservative amongst you may wish to see the test of the break of that TL from underneath before you traded. As you can see at Point C we had a test of the TL break from underneath with an Inside Bar. IBs are dangerous but they are best if they trade in the way you expect them to go. So, if you are looking for a short you would not take a green or bullish IB break. But that's not being taught on Strat's thread so I'll zip it!) So, we have now had effectively a 1-2-3 set up. We have had a major TL break, a new high back into that TL and now we are looking for the 123 to get us in. We had this with this double top, (1) the back down thru the TL and 20ema (2) then back up to underneath the TL with a lower high (3). [B]This is a text book short set up trend reversal. [/B] We then had another TL test (the final UP TL) drawn from the March 2003 lows to the Aug 2004 lows and beyond. Look at how that TL break in Jan 2008 was tested from underneath in May 2008. This time we had a BEOB. This was also a 'Low 2 Short' (ie the 2nd lower high after the peak) and this gave rise to the best short of the lot with 2 large pushes down to the MAJOR yearly up TL at 3700 region. Point D is the down trend line from the peak thru the Low 2 high and beyond. Until this TL is broken we are still, really, in a down trend and this current thrust could yet be a retrace back into that TL. The current chart is showing a steeply rising wedge pattern and the current rate of ascent is unsustainable in my opinion and a test of the monthly 20ema. I think once Sept Oct starts we could see this rally peak at about the 5000-5100 level before starting a new leg down. Again, wait for the micro TL break (ie the lower part of the wedge pattern) and the retest of that break before going short. Al says in his book that most market moves involve 2 pushes down and 3 pushes up. If this is the case then we may see some corrective action this week or next before a final small 3rd push up into that descending TL and the 5100 region before the resumption of the down trend. Hope I've not got above my station here or explained this well enough for people to understand; I would invite comments to the contrary for learning of course!

No Trading today after being busted yesterday. More chart reading required. This week I have learnt the importance of sticking with the trend. Only take a counter-trend trade once it becomes the new trend (after a significant TL break, a retest to a lower low or higher high) then the resumption of the new trend!

Dollar May Fall as Rebound in Oil, Stocks Triggers Stop Losses

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By Ye Xie and Oliver Biggadike

Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may extend its decline against the euro on reduced demand for safety after crude oil and U.S. stocks rebounded, encouraging traders to sell the U.S. currency to limit losses.

The Canadian dollar advanced yesterday against its U.S. counterpart by the most in two weeks as crude oil rose after failing to sustain a drop below $70 a barrel. The Norwegian krone also gained. The dollar depreciated versus most of its major counterparts, declining to the weakest level this year versus the Swiss franc.

“The turnaround in oil and equities set off the moves in commodity currencies,” said Alan Ruskin, head of international currency strategy in North America at RBS Securities Inc. in Stamford, Conn. “Long-dollar positions have been stopped out big-time.” A long is a bet a currency will appreciate.

Looks like the black gold is still in charge then!

Well, got busted out of all three trades today by the superspike that started about 1600? Was it oil or the indices that gave to the rise? Oil, gold up and usd down.

To be fair I should have know as the 15m TF Cable chart put in a double bottom. The moral of the story is not to trade a TF that you can't be present at the screen for. You can't trade a 15m TF if you are away for a few hours as things change quickly.

Todays open trades (held overnight)

Nat Gas chart - there is a massive divergance between oil and gas - one has to give way soon? The best pairs trade maybe long gas, short crude.

The vital lesson I have learnt today is the fact that it's much better to wait for a BO then the retrace and test into that BO before entering a trade. A 'pin-bar' is a single bar trading range on a lower TF, and you don't want to be buying the top or selling the bottom of a trading range. Much safer to wait for the BO then wait for a retrace and good price action to get into the trade.

Watching and plotting Fibs is also pretty pointless as PA will reveal a level and whether a trade is worthy of taking.

The significance of TLs can not be underestimated combined with last highs and last lows. These are the keys to trading PASR.

Pins should never be traced in isolation as it's too risky. To trade counter trend you must wait for a significant trend line break and then a new low or high or a retest before entering any trade...

Hello, This is very much a work in progress that will allow me to document all my trades and review them for personal use at a later date. I am a Price Action trader that uses areas of supply and demand (depicted by Trendlines and Support and Resistance) and the 20ema. I trade the daily TF as I have a day job that I also enjoy and don't want to give up as long as the body allows me! I will be posting charts and setups that I took so I can review at a later date and spot errors in my trading.

Lack of discipline again - enterd a short on the DJI for small pip risk on TL touch - but forgot to check the time - it was 1715 - slap bang in the middle of US Lunch session. I don't trade the lunch session in UK or US as there are traders that specialise in these sessions and they usually take advantage of the lower volume for counter trend scalps!

I also entered a gold short for 5 pips risk based on the 15min TF as PA had retraced to under neath the minor H4 up TL but is still below the H4 20 ema and H1 and 15m 20 emas. (plus a 5m Shoot/Star right off the TL and 15m 20ema)

This was my oil short from the 15m chart today. I was looking for a tighter entry into the retrace after yesterdays BEOB. Waited for the lower highs as seen on the chart.

I fouled this up though as I checked the progress on my mobile ands moved the stop to 9170 - it was hit by 2 pips! Lesson - leave your stop where it is and set a proper target and limit order as per the plan. The obvious limt was at the SR level at 70.72 which it hit to the tick!

Well, been waiting for ages to short cable. I've been waiting for the top to be put in and the trend lines to break to show that we are in a new downtrend. Once we have a TL break we are waiting for that to be tested again from underneath. Cable had a spike out of the bull channel some days back and put in a weekly shooting star. The major UP TL has now been violated and the smaller minor TL has gone too as has the last low of that uptrend. I'm short at 1.6355 with stop at 1.6370 as I took the stop from the last high before the BO on the H1 chart.