29 Nov 2009

Weekly Analysis - WE 4 Dec 09

Lt Sweet Crude Dec Fut – Long only on pullbacks – Boss shows a penetration of the large up TL but the close is above it. Worker has a classic, deep hammer. Long above 76.50 BUT there are 3 SR levels above that so RR Ratio is questionable.

Nat Gas – Boss gives us a HL as the weekly close was a bull bar above last weeks spining top. Long only above the monthly 20ema at 5.45.

Gold – Monthly Bull Candle breaking old highs. 4th Boss bull trend candle after BO test 4 weeks' ago. Wary of the parabolic rise and I would imagine a pullback soon. Worker gives a hanging man candle so warning of possible lower prices in the short term. Neutral.

DowJones Sep Fut -(YMZ9) – Trend is still up. Boss gives a bear spinning top candle but still within the wedge TLs. Worker shows a hammer of sorts so long above 10380. You should take every with trend opportunity offered.

FTSE Fut (FFIZ9)– Boss is still in a bull trend but last week's close was bearish candle still on the 5300 level. Worker looks twitchy with a large bear then bull candle off the 5099 SR level. Long above 5300 but only short once we have had a TL break and retest.

Cable – Boss shows a spinning top doji, still range bound so NEUTRAL unitl we have a range BO.

Gbpyen. - Boss still in major uptrend but minor down move. Worker has broken out of pennant to downside and is below Mas. Worker gives a deep hammer so long above 143.70 as poss double bottom test and test of BO from Jan 09.

Gbpchf – Boss still in UP minor trend in larger down trend. Worker gives hammer but RR is crap to the descending TL from the double top high. Wedge pattern before still looks like a bear flag so I'm only looking to short this pair below 1.6490.

Eurusd – Boss shows a BUEB. The PA bounced right of the 76% retrace last week so this is the last major Fib level of any relevance. Worker PA bounced off the daily 50sma so long only still above the 1.5030 level.

Audusd – Monthly still in Up trend but if this week goes lower we will have a text book Shooting Star. Boss shows bear candle. Worker shows a bear close under the broken up TL. Penetrated the 50sma but not the last low of up trend. Short below 0.8898

Usdchf – Poss bottom double bottom forming but would like to see a significant HL before long and a close above the SR at 1.0250 before long – Neutral.

Usdcad – Boss IB Bear hanging man candle PA stuck at the 1.0684 SR level so until it breaks that with a good bull close above 1.07814 Neutral.

USDYEN – Boss still in major down trend. No TL breaks yet so short only. Worker yet to show a HL so still short only. Poss bottom but who knows?

Euryen – Boss still rangebound; Bear close last week. Worker gives a text book hammer off SR and Fib. Long only above 130.30, short below 126.68 SR level.

Eurgbp – Boss still bullish off the major and minor up TL's. Worker gives a shooting star off the 0.9086 SR. Excellent Low 3 set up so short below 0.9055

Eurnzd – Long only here as we have a confirmed TL break, test and a higher low. Long above the 2.1253 level as the last major H of the downtrend.

Gbpcad – Boss still in major down move but we had a deep rejection of 1.6290 level and trapped below the SR at 1.7711. Recent worker trend is up with a 2nd HL so long above 1.7711 short below 1.7350.

Nzdusd – Monthly Shooter still in play with low broken. Short below 0.7000 level. Long above 0.7156 level on worker Hammer and deep double bottom test. Should now test old trends extreme at 0.7460.

Audyen – Closed below the 82.00 level and last high of UP Trend test. Confirmed LH on boss with BEEB. Short only but worker gives a hammer. With thr major TL broke I'm waiting for a test of the old trend extreme then short prob at 82.00 level.

EurCad – Mas all flat on Monthly and boss poss dbl top bear flag. Rangebound but worker still below dbl top bear flag. Wait for market to show hand. Boss gave us an IB last week but looks like a failed Bull BO. Wait for good close above Mas before action.

GbpAud – Monthly hammer on trend channel overshoot low after 2 pushes down. Boss BUOB. Worker shows a HL so long only above 1.8500

CadJpy – Boss bear close just below SR at 81.91. Broke last low of up trend but worker gives a perfect hammer, so long above 81.91 to next SR at 84.49.

NzdJpy - Monthly Shooter – Boss has 3 major TL breaks. Worker give a hammer off the 60.00 SR level but after TL breaks NEUTRAL.